If the showdown with Duke in D.C. was one of the biggest regular-season matchups this century, Saturday’s battle has the same argument for the postseason. Kenpom ranks the Michigan Wolverines and the Arizona Wildcats as two of the best teams ever, and it is only fitting they will meet with everything on the line. Nearly every metric has this game as a toss-up, and there are minimal clear advantages either way.
Arizona has lost just two games all season, back-to-back defeats in early February. That
was 13 games ago, and since that time, the Wildcats have moved up to the No. 4 offense and No. 2 defense per Kenpom, ranked second overall. Michigan is a slot below on offense, a slot ahead on defense, and mere points ahead in the overall team rankings to enter the weekend No. 1. One team is going to go home immensely disappointed, as both of these squads have the quality to be national champions in any given season.
Final Four: No. 1 Michigan (35-3) vs. No. 1 Arizona (36-2)
Date & Time: Saturday, April 4, 8:49-ish p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV/Streaming: TBS
These two programs have met a handful of times over the years, including three games since 2013. The Wildcats took both legs of a home-and-home, with No. 1 Arizona winning in Ann Arbor during the 2013-14 campaign, then winning big in Tucson when ranked No. 3 the next season. Most recently, the No. 4 Wolverines were upset in the 2021 Roman Main Event final in Vegas.
Four Stats to Watch
Arizona 2PT Defense: 44.1% (2nd)
In many ways, these squads mirror each other perfectly (at least in terms of numbers), and that starts with interior defense. Both teams have been excellent defending inside the arc, which is also where both teams have feasted offensively. The Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight were not the most consistent outings for Aday Mara and Morez Johnson, but they must be excellent on both ends for Michigan to survive this one, and it is hard to see how that happens without them rediscovering their scoring touch.
Finishing strong at the rim is crucial for the bigs, as the Wolverine guards are going to have trouble against the trees. The Wildcats do not block a ton of shots, but they make life so tough near the basket and do a good job of avoiding fouls. Tobe Awaka and big Motiejus Krivas are excellent rebounders, and Arizona is top-30 nationally at limiting offensive boards. Michigan has been pretty solid in the paint all season, but the shots near the rim absolutely must fall.
Arizona FT Rate: 44.3% (7th)
Given their size, it is no surprise that the Wildcats look to do most of their damage on the interior, and they have been one of the most consistent teams at drawing fouls. Against overmatched Utah State and Arkansas, Arizona generated a free throw rate of over 65%, which is just bonkers, attempting a combined 78 free throws. Krivas, Awaka, and phenom Koa Peat are so tough to handle inside, as they use their physicality by posting up and overwhelming defenders, leading to either baskets or free throws.
Foul trouble is arguably the number one way Michigan gets derailed, and early issues for Mara or Johnson would be a disaster given how strong this Arizona offense is. Some of this is going to be in the hands of the officials, but Dusty May needs to make his team aware of the Wildcats’ propensity for getting to the line. This is a delicate balance, as they do get blocked more than one might expect, so figuring out how to play aggressive defense without fouling is essential.
Arizona 3PT Defense: 31.0% (34th)
Opponents are not overly reliant on the long ball against the Wildcats despite their size advantage in most contests, and I have often advocated for Michigan to use its own height mismatch and prioritize attacking the rim instead of setting for jumpers. However, in a game where so much on paper looks very even, it could be the Wolverines’ outside shooting that ends up making the difference, especially as the team with the lesser of the two backcourts.
Michigan picked the right time to get hot from three, hitting 44.6% of its attempts so far in the NCAA Tournament, with nearly everyone getting involved. Continuing this hot streak would be a surprise against the Arizona defense, but even converting around the season average (36.9%) could swing the outcome. One spot to watch is in transition, where Yaxel Lendeborg has been thriving. If the best player on the court can get the attack started before the defense is fully set, there are going to be some great looks available, both at the rim and from three.
Arizona 3PT Rate: 26.4% (363rd)
The Wildcats are the anti-Alabama, taking the third-fewest threes in the entire country (as a percentage of field goal attempts). Rarely do they even reach 20 attempts, and only four times have they recorded double-digit makes from deep; Michigan has done so in each of its four Tournament games. Despite this, the offense is still elite, and the Jaden Bradley-Brayden Burries backcourt tandem is a serious challenge.
Bradley will get to the basket, but can also thrive in the mid-range, which pairs well with Burries, the only real long-range shooter. If either guard does miss, the Arizona is great at grabbing offensive rebounds, claiming the fourth-highest rate nationally. Michigan did well enough against Tennessee on the defensive glass, but allowing the Wildcat bigs to win in this area is a recipe for disaster, with fouls becoming a bigger risk and second-chance points too much of a gift to allow in this level of contest.
Outside shooting seems like it will decide the game. Arizona’s offense has the higher floor, doing all of its work inside the arc and getting to the line very consistently. However, Michigan seems to have the higher ceiling, in part due to its ability to hit a bunch of threes. With first-round talent on both sides and massive presences in the paint, perhaps this one comes down to jump shooting. Behind the arc is where the Wolverine guards can level the playing field, and how well they (and Lendeborg) shoot from deep will play a huge role in who wins the game.
