The NBA Playoffs are upon us, which means it’s time to diagnose the Detroit Pistons as they look to make a run to the NBA Finals. The crew at DBB looked at the first-round matchup, the difference makers and the likelihood of that championship run.
1. The Pistons will kick off the playoffs against the Orlando Magic on Sunday. What is your read on the series + who wins and in how many games?
Sean Corp: The Orlando Magic seem like a team at its breaking point, and the Detroit Pistons defense loves to break teams. They are also one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, and hot 3-point shooting is how a lot of teams stick around. Feels
like a physical, short series. Pistons in 5.
Laz Jackson: Pistons in six. It should be Pistons in five, but there will be at least one game thats a smidge TOO rock fight-y and the Magic win at home, plus the “normal” playoff loss.
Brady Fredericksen: Orlando is the biggest disappointment in the NBA, yet they’re still fighting. Franz looks lost, and Paolo (sans the Charlotte game) has been more bad than god. The Magic are a poor man’s Pistons, and I can’t see them beating Detroit at its own game. Pistons win this in 5 games.
Justin Lambregtse: The Magic are a mess, but they at least have playoff experience and have played the Pistons well the last couple years. I think the Pistons beat them in 6 games.
Wes Davenport: The Magic are solid and will present some challenges for Detroit. However, in playoff basketball, defense and star power win the day. It’s nearly impossible to argue the Pistons are lacking for either compared to Orlando. Pistons in 5.
Robbie Bettelon: Pistons in 5. I’m ready for Round 2 already.
Brennan Sims: Orlando, one of the teams the Pistons have smoke with. Detroit would have handled Charlotte, and the’ll handle the Magic.
Max Sturm: I see the Pistons handling Orlando. The Magic are essentially a poor man’s version of Detroit. They’re finally healthy after being banged up all year, and at their best they are long, skilled, and can shut the water off on defense. Pistons in 6.
Austen Flores: Orlando is finally healthy, but Detroit is well-equipped to neutralize what they do best. The regular season games were close, but Orlando’s offensive inconsistency — too much drive-and-kick and stagnant possessions — shows up. Expect tight games, but Detroit pulls them out. Pistons in five.
2. Who are the 1-2 most important players for the Pistons to make a legitimate run?
Sean Corp: The boring answer is Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren. They power the offense, and help define the defense. The swing answer might be Ausar Thompson. The ability to maximize his defense (be keeping him on the floor) and limit foul trouble is key.
Laz Jackson: Ausar. Can he neutralize Desmond Bane / Donovan Mitchell entirely and make offenses less efficient? What poor soul will he backcut to death in the half court? Even in a slowed down playoff environment, can he generate deflections, blocks, steals that turn into the easy offense the Pistons feast on? I think so. Caris LeVert. Quietly, VERY quietly, he has been less disruptive to good offense. He WILL get minutes, but can they be productive ones? Will we have a Caris LeVert Game, one that steals the Pistons a series? It’s on the table.
Brady Fredericksen: Daniss Jenkins and Jalen Duren stand out. Jenkins found a second wind, and if he can create, score and play under control in his minutes, the Pistons will be in good shape. Duren has leveled up. Now, it’s time to prove that the shot creation and defense is real against locked-in defenses. I think he’s ready.
Justin Lambregtse: Duren and Jenkins. I have faith in Cade’s ability to play in the playoffs and Ausar’s defense is going to be important, but getting offensive contributions from both Duren and Jenkins to help out Cade/hold down the fort when he is out is going to be very important for a long playoff run.
Wes Davenport: Cade is the soft ball. But I’ll go the rest of that core four group as well — Duren (for his scoring ability), Ausar and Stew (for their defensive ability). Famous last words, I know, but I’m not all that worried about the floor spacing.
Robbie Bettelon: Duren and Ausar. If they can still coexist in playoff basketball, the East is in trouble.
Brennan Sims: Cade Cunningham’s jump shot could swing a series either way. Duncan Robinson has to remain an elite shooter — channel that 2023 Finals run energy.
Max Sturm: Jenkins comes to mind here. It’s easy to forget that Dennis Shroder was essentially the team’s second best player against the Knicks during last year’s playoffs. Jenkins has the ability to play a similar role this spring. Ausar Thompson is the other. Can he stay on the floor offensively during crunch time? Can he stay out of foul trouble? Can he make his free throws consistently? If those answers are yes, then the Pistons will have a tremendous advantage on the defensive end at all times.
Austen Flores: Jenkins and Robinson, with Tobias Harris just missing the cut. Jenkins has been a revelation and now steps into a major playoff role after not playing in last year’s Knicks series — he’ll need to match the impact Dennis Schröder had. Robinson’s playoff experience is valuable despite his ups and downs, and Detroit’s success often hinges on his shooting. JB Bickerstaff should prioritize getting him clean looks early.
3. How far do you see the Pistons’ run going? What is their ceiling and what is going to make or break them in their chase for the Finals?
Sean Corp: The Pistons keep surprising against the best competition. I only NEED a first round series win. I am confident they can get to the Conference Finals. And from there, they dictate their own fate, and the date of their off-season priorities as they look to be NBA Finals winners (soon).
Laz Jackson: The Detroit Pistons ceiling is an NBA Finals appearance, full stop. What makes or breaks them will be health (in both directions) and turnovers.
Brady Fredericksen: I’ve got the Pistons falling in the ECF. I think they can beat the Knicks there, but I have concerns about how they match up against the Celtics with Jayson Tatum back. The offense has been a lot better, but a cold spell late in a big game in Boston could be the end of the line.
Justin Lambregtse: I’d love to say they make the Finals, but I don’t think that’s in the cards this year. I look at the OKC Thunder who were a 2nd round team a couple years ago before breaking through and going all the way and winning. The Pistons are still young and not playoff tested a ton, so I could see them going down in the 2nd round after a hard-fought series. It does depend on their 2nd round matchup, though.
Wes Davenport: I see this team as a lock for the conference semis. Anything beyond that is gravy to me. That said, I would predict they make the ECF. They’ll go as far as Cade and Duren will take them offensively.
Robbie Bettelon: I don’t fear any team outside of Boston. So, if they meet the Celtics in the ECF, I’d take Boston.
Brennan Sims: They could make the Finals. Hard to see them beating OKC, San Antonio, or Denver. Who steps up after the All-Stars offensively + how does the offense fare in general?
Max Sturm: Their ceiling is the Finals, though I don’t see them beating either of the West favorites. A fully healthy Boston will likely be the favorite to come out of the East, and the Cavs pose a sneaky tough potential matchup in round two. Can someone be a consistent secondary scorer? Jenkins, Caris Levert, Kevin Huerter all have shown flashes of being that guy. Beyond that, health is a major factor, as maintaining their defense.
Austen Flores: The ECF. The second round could take a toll, especially against a tough Cavs team that matches up well with Detroit and added another dimension with Harden. That goes at least six. A potential Boston matchup is intriguing — they’d have a chip on their shoulder — but with Tatum back, it may be a step too far.
Most likely top seed to lose early in the East?
Sean Corp: Cleveland Cavaliers
Laz Jackson: New York Knicks
Brady Fredericksen: New York Knicks
Robbie Bettelon: New York Knicks
Brennan Sims: New York Knicks
Max Sturm: New York Knicks
Austen Flores: New York Knicks
Most likely underdog to win a series in the East?
Sean Corp: Atlanta Hawks
Laz Jackson: Atlanta Hawks
Brady Fredericksen: Atlanta Hawks
Robbie Bettelon: Toronto Raptors
Brennan Sims: Toronto Raptors
Max Sturm: Philadelphia 76ers
Austen Flores: Atlanta Hawks
Who wins the East
Sean Corp: Boston Celtics
Laz Jackson: Detroit Pistons
Brady Fredericksen: Boston Celtics
Robbie Bettelon: Boston Celtics
Brennan Sims: Boston Celtics
Max Sturm: Detroit Pistons
Austen Flores: Boston Celtics
Most likely top seed to lose early in the West?
Sean Corp: Los Angeles Lakers
Laz Jackson: San Antonio Spurs
Brady Fredericksen: Denver Nuggets
Robbie Bettelon: Denver Nuggets
Brennan Sims: Denver Nuggets
Max Sturm: Los Angeles Lakers
Austen Flores: Los Angeles Lakers
Most likely underdog to win a series in the West?
Sean Corp: Minnesota Timberwolves
Laz Jackson: Houston Rockets
Brady Fredericksen: Minnesota Timberwolves
Robbie Bettelon: Minnesota Timberwolves
Brennan Sims: Minnesota Timberwolves
Max Sturm: Minnesota Timberwolves
Austen Flores: Houston Rockets
Who wins the West?
Sean Corp: San Antonio Spurs
Laz Jackson: Oklahoma City Thunder
Brady Fredericksen: Oklahoma City Thunder
Robbie Bettelon: San Antonio Spurs
Brennan Sims: Oklahoma City Thunder
Max Sturm: Oklahoma City Thunder
Austen Flores: Oklahoma City Thunder
Who wins the NBA title?
Sean Corp: Boston Celtics
Laz Jackson: Oklahoma City Thunder
Brady Fredericksen: Oklahoma City Thunder
Robbie Bettelon: San Antonio Spurs
Brennan Sims: Oklahoma City Thunder
Max Sturm: Oklahoma City Thunder
Austen Flores: Oklahoma City Thunder
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As always, let us know what you think in the comments!
