If momentum is a real thing, the Yankees should have a lot of it on their side today after stealing a win behind Paul Goldschmidt’s ninth-inning dinger. Of course, momentum is also only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, but at least on paper the Yankees seem to have the edge in Sunday’s series finale in Toronto.
Will Warren is that aforementioned starter for New York, sitting half a win behind his 2025 performance while having thrown 100 fewer innings. What’s really invigorating to me with
Warren is how close all his peripheral measurements are to his ERA — no more than a third of a run difference between xERA, FIP, and xFIP. That last one is critical, since we’ve seen some pitchers, like Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease, see some immediate regression when a team hits a home run or two. Instead, Warren is by all the data we have pretty much as good as he’s shown. He’s also going a full third of an inning deeper than he was last year; 2025 saw him average not quite five innings a start. Eight of his 13 starts this year have seen him get past that mark.
All of Patrick Corbin’s peripherals are pretty in line as well, except that they’re not nearly as good as Warren’s. The real problem for Corbin is how much he gets squared up, with a hard-hit rate of more than 43 percent. The Yankees took advantage of that contact control problem when they faced him in the Bronx back in May — Corbin lasted just four innings, yielding three runs on six hits and three walks. Although the Toronto bullpen got some time off yesterday with Kevin Gausman’s excellent outing, a similar performance by Corbin to that May 18th matchup would be appreciated today.
The lineup is about as patchwork as it gets these days with all the injuries. The top four is as representative as ever, but the team is going to be asking a fair amount from Max Schuemann who’s in left today, and Ali Sánchez who gets the job behind the plate. They’re stacking righties against the southpaw Corbin.
Do note the odd start time. It’s part of the counter-tariff thing.
How to watch
Location: Rogers Centre – Toronto, ON
First pitch: 1:37 pm ET
TV broadcast: YES, Sportsnet, SN1, TVA Sports
Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | SN590 THE FAN (TOR)
Streaming: Gotham Sports App, MLB.tv (out-of-market only)
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