The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks for a three-game set beginning Tuesday evening to wrap up their homestand. Milwaukee is coming off a series loss to the Pirates to begin the homestand, though they did pick up their first shutout win on Sunday, taking that one 5-0 behind a strong 12-strikeout showing from Kyle Harrison.
On the other side, Arizona is returning from their series split with the Padres in Mexico City, as they dropped Saturday’s game 6-4 before a comeback win
on Sunday. They sit at 15-12 on the season, one game better than the 14-13 Brewers.
Milwaukee’s injured list (luckily) hasn’t grown much, but it also hasn’t shrunk. First baseman Andrew Vaughn and outfielder Jackson Chourio are both on the verge of rehab assignments as they recover from hand injuries, while Quinn Priester made his second rehab outing with Nashville over the weekend. He’s hoping for an early to mid-May return. Relievers Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny are both hoping to return in May, too, while outfielder/DH Christian Yelich is still shelved with a groin strain.
The Diamondbacks are missing a whole bunch of players, so let’s split them up into pitchers and position players. For the pitching staff, Blake Walston (midseason), Andrew Saalfrank (out for the season), Justin Martinez (second half), old friend Corbin Burnes (midseason), A.J. Puk (midseason), and Cristian Mena (TBD) are all out. Offensively, Arizona is without Pavin Smith (TBD), fellow former friend Carlos Santana (TBD), Jordan Lawlar (June), Tyler Locklear (mid-May/early June), and Gabriel Moreno, who is expected to rejoin the team for this series after missing the last couple of weeks with an oblique strain. Right-hander Zac Gallen and shortstop Geraldo Perdomo are also considered day to day with minor injuries, though Gallen is not lined up to pitch in this series.
Offensively, the Brewers haven’t homered in the last week, and they’ve struggled with inconsistency throughout the early going of the season. Brice Turang had a rough week but still led the team with four RBIs, as he’s now hitting .258/.391/.462 with four homers, 18 RBIs, 20 runs, and seven steals this season. Gary Sánchez and Jake Bauers lead the team with five homers. Garrett Mitchell has also shown flashes of his potential, and William Contreras remains a team leader. Beyond that, there isn’t much to say about the Brewer offense. As a team, Milwaukee is hitting .231/.329/.349 (.678 OPS ranks 26th), with 19 homers (tied for last), 132 runs (tied for ninth), and 36 steals (first).
Much as Perdomo did a season ago, Ildemaro Vargas has quietly turned into one of the best hitters in baseball this year with Arizona. Over 20 games, he’s hitting .367/.383/.722 with a team-high six homers, 20 RBIs, and 18 runs scored. Nolan Arenado and Ketel Marte each have four homers, while Corbin Carroll has three homers, four triples, and four steals. Jose Fernandez also has three homers and a .342 batting average thus far. Adrian Del Castillo, Aramis Garcia, James McCann, Tim Tawa, Jorge Barrosa, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Alek Thomas round out the roster (note: the team also added Jesus Valdez as the 27th man for the Mexico City Series). As a team, Arizona is hitting .255/.310/.426 (.736 OPS ranks seventh), with 27 homers (tied for 20th), 132 runs (tied for ninth), and 16 steals (tied for 21st).
Aaron Ashby and Grant Anderson still lead Milwaukee’s bullpen in appearances, with DL Hall turning in a solid 2.31 ERA over 11 outings. Abner Uribe has had some bumps this season, but he looked good over the weekend against Pittsburgh. After a hot start, Angel Zerpa has struggled in recent weeks, while Trevor Megill has had a reverse trajectory. Jake Woodford and Shane Drohan round out the current bullpen depth chart. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.82 team ERA (eighth), including a 3.59 starter ERA (fifth) and a 4.09 bullpen ERA (15th). They’ve struck out 250 batters (ninth) over 240 1/3 innings.
The Arizona bullpen is led by Juan Morillo, who has a 1.98 ERA with 16 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings. Closer Paul Sewald is a perfect 7-for-7 in save opportunities, but he has a 4.50 ERA and three losses. Former Brewer minor leaguer Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loáisiga have matching 3.29 ERAs over 13 2/3 innings. Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, Andrew Hoffman, and swingman Brandon Pfaadt (five appearances, three starts) round out the bullpen. As a staff, the D-backs have a 4.53 team ERA (24th), including a 4.62 starter ERA (25th) and a 4.67 bullpen ERA (22nd). They’ve struck out 204 batters (29th) over 240 1/3 innings.
Probable Pitchers
Tuesday, April 28 @ 6:40 p.m.: RHP Chad Patrick (1-1, 2.35 ERA, 4.37 FIP) vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (1-1, 9.31 ERA, 9.02 FIP)
Patrick has had a solid season thus far, even if the underlying numbers don’t back that up. He has a 2.35 ERA, with six earned runs on 21 hits and eight walks over 23 innings, striking out just 11. After DL Hall opened for him on Wednesday night in Detroit, he went four innings, getting roughed up for four runs on six hits and a walk, striking out two. A fourth-round pick by these D-backs back in 2021, he made one start against them last season, spanning 4 1/3 innings with no runs allowed on five hits and two walks, striking out three in a no-decision.
Kelly, 37, is in his eighth MLB season. A former three-time draft pick (in 2007, 2009, and 2010), Kelly spent four seasons in Korea before breaking through with Arizona in 2019. He spent his first six full seasons with the D-backs before being traded at last year’s deadline to the Rangers. He returned to Arizona this offseason and, after starting the season on the IL, has made two starts this year. His first start against the Orioles resulted in a win as he allowed two runs over 5 1/3 innings with three strikeouts, but his last time out, he got roughed up by the White Sox, allowing eight runs and striking out five over 4 1/3 innings. For the season, he’s totaled 9 2/3 innings with 10 runs allowed on 15 hits (four homers) and seven walks with eight strikeouts. Kelly has made 10 career appearances against the Brewers, with a 5-2 record, a 2.95 ERA, and 60 strikeouts over 61 innings. His only start last season came while with Texas, when he picked up the win despite allowing three runs on 10 hits, striking out six over 5 2/3 innings.
Wednesday, April 29 @ 6:40 p.m.: RHP Brandon Sproat (0-1, 6.45 ERA, 6.02 FIP) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodríguez (2-0, 2.89 ERA, 4.98 FIP)
Sproat, who got out to a horrid start in his first two outings, has looked much better in his last three appearances. He took a no-decision on Thursday in Detroit, as he went 5 1/3 innings with three runs allowed on four hits and two walks, striking out four on 76 pitches. The former second-round pick has never faced the D-backs before.
Rodríguez, 33, is in his third season with the D-backs after signing a four-year, $80 million contract that runs through 2027. While his ERA hovered just over 5.00 in each of his first two seasons in the desert, he’s had more statistical success this season. Even though his 4.98 FIP is near that 5.00 mark, he has a 2.89 ERA with 10 runs allowed (nine earned) and 18 strikeouts over 28 innings through five starts. He’s allowed four runs in each of his last two starts (against the Orioles and White Sox), spanning 10 innings with seven strikeouts. Rodríguez has made four career starts against Milwaukee, with an 0-3 record, a 4.58 ERA, and 16 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings. That includes a pair of starts last season — both losses — in which he totaled 8 2/3 innings with eight runs allowed (seven earned) and four strikeouts.
Thursday, April 30 @ 12:40 p.m.: RHP Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 3.77 ERA, 4.09 FIP) vs. RHP Michael Soroka (4-0, 2.60 ERA, 2.69 FIP)
Woodruff just took his first loss of the season on Friday night against Pittsburgh, as he had the tall task of going head-to-head with Paul Skenes, who has his A-plus-plus stuff in a 6-0 Pirate win. Woodruff allowed three runs in that one, giving up five hits and two walks while striking out three. For the season, he’s totaled 28 2/3 innings with a 3.77 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and 23 strikeouts. Woodruff has made eight career appearances (seven starts) against Arizona, with a 3-1 record, a 4.81 ERA, and 49 strikeouts over 39 1/3 innings. One of those wins came in his lone appearance against them last August, when he allowed five runs over 5 2/3 innings but picked up eight strikeouts in a 7-5 Brewer win.
Soroka, 28, is in his seventh MLB season and with his fifth team. After agreeing to a one-year, $7.5 million deal this offseason, he’s been a bright spot for Arizona early this season. Through five starts, he’s a perfect 4-0 with a 2.60 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and 34 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings. His last start was his lone no-decision of the year, though he still went five innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts in a game the D-backs ultimately lost late. Soroka has made two career appearances against Milwaukee, one with the Braves (2023) and one with the White Sox (2024). In those two appearances, he went 1-1 with seven runs allowed over seven innings, striking out six.
How to Watch & Listen
Tuesday, April 28: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Wednesday, April 29: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Thursday, April 30: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Prediction
I think I’m going to start writing these predictions with the caveat that it really just depends on which Brewer offense shows up. I’ll bet on the Crew, though, and predict they take two of three this week.
