The 2025 Boston Red Sox were the third team in the AL East to make the postseason with an 89-73 record. They had the fourth-best record in the American League and lost in the Wild Card round to the Yankees. It was the Red Sox first playoff appearance since 2021 and just their second since they won the World Series in 2018. They had a three-season non-winning streak prior to 2025, and I certainly wasn’t happy to see that streak end.
The 2025 Red Sox were good enough to make the playoffs, but they had
plenty of room to improve. Their bullpen was one of the best in baseball, but their starting rotation was middle of the pack. Their offense was top-10 by most measures. They have made a lot of changes to improve and make up for players they lost, especially in the starting rotation.
Additions & Subtractions
The 2025 Red Sox starting rotation had a combined fWAR of 11.7, with half of that coming from ace pitcher Garrett Crochet. Their #2 starter was Brayan Bello, who is a fine pitcher but not a number two. So the Red Sox went out and got two more starters to boost their rotation.
First,they traded for Sonny Gray. Gray is 36 years old and starting to show his age. He had a 4.28 ERA in 32 starts with the Cardinals last year, but the Red Sox are obviously hoping Gray has enough in the tank to be a solid contributor. In December, they traded for Johan Oviedo, who comes from the Pirates and slots in at the back of the rotation.
Their biggest move came in January, when they signed Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million contract. This one hurt the Orioles on multiple fronts. Not only did their division rivals sign one of the best pitchers on the market this offseason, but Suárez is a pitcher the Orioles are believed to have pursued. After the signing, Jon Heyman reported that the Orioles offered him $125M. Ouch.
Lucas Giolito had a solid 2025 season with the Red Sox, but is currently still a free agent. That’s strange to me, but he isn’t a Red Sock any longer. With the changes, the Red Sox rotation currently stands as Crochet, Suárez, Gray, Bello, and Oviedo.
The Red Sox didn’t make many changes to the bullpen, though they recently added former Oriole Danny Coulombe. Their bullpen will continue to be headlined by closer Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock. If we’re lucky, this will be the year that the 38-year-old Chapman gets bad and goes away forever.
On offense, the Red Sox look to improve first base with Willson Contreras, acquired from the Cardinals. They had something of a revolving door at first base last year, including Nathaniel Lowe, who left as a free agent and signed with the Reds.
Their biggest offensive loss is Alex Bregman, who left Boston for the Chicago Cubs. In turn, the Red Sox traded for Caleb Durbin, who had a solid rookie season with Milwaukee in 2025.
2025 rookie Marcelo Mayer will slot in at second base aTrevor Story will continue to man shortstop and the outfield will be manned with returning players Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, and Cedanne Rafaela. Anthony could end up being the best hitter on the team.
Projections
- PECOTA: 82-80 (4th in AL East)
- FanGraphs: 89-73 (3rd in AL East)
That’s a pretty big difference in the two projection systems. The Red Sox made a lot of changes this offseason. Their starting rotation has been overhauled and their offense has several key changes. PECOTA thinks that will lose them seven wins from last year and FanGraphs has them holding steady. It’ s interesting that even with all their changes, these projections don’t expect any improvement.
In recent history, the Red Sox have been contenders or have been terrible. Middle of the road isn’t really a thing for them. Given that, I won’t be surprised no matter what happens with them.
