The 2026 Texas Rangers currently sit at 76-77 on the season, with nine games to go.
Most years, a team in this situation would either have been eliminated or would be on the verge of elimination, would be simply playing out the string or hoping for a miracle.
In the wild and wacky world of the American League in 2026, however, the Rangers are still legitimately in contention for a playoff spot.
They aren’t favorites, to be clear. Currently, Fangraphs gives the Rangers a 32.9% chance of making the playoffs,
including a 21.8% chance of winning the division.
Those aren’t great odds. But if we think about it from a baseball perspective, its not exactly a long shot, either. Joc Pederson and Ezequiel Duran each have a .329 OBP this year, so we can think of the Rangers’ playoff chances as being more or less than same as Duran or Pederson getting on base in any given plate appearance this year.
The teams that the Rangers are fighting with to make the playoffs, with their Fangraphs playoff odds, are:
Houston Astros — 81.0% playoff odds
The hated Astros.
Currently sporting a 77-76 record, one game up on the Rangers, and holding the tiebreaker, so effectively two games up.
Fangraphs gives the Astros a 77.8% chance of winning the division,* and a 3.2% chance of getting the third Wild Card berth. Basically, if the Astros don’t do well enough in their final nine games to stay ahead of the Rangers, they probably aren’t going to do well enough to earn a Wild Card berth. That being said, if Astros were to win the division and the Rangers win the Wild Card, or vice versa, the two teams would almost certainly face each other in the Wild Card Round,** which would be exciting.
* The Mariners, currently 71-82, have a 0.4% chance of winning the American League West, an eventuality that none of us want to think about.
** The first two Wild Card spots will almost certainly be filled by the Yankees (88-64) and the Red Sox (83-70), unless the Rays (93-59) completely collapse and get passed by the Yankees. Regardless, the top two Wild Card teams are almost certainly going to be the second and third place finishers in the American League East, and as the #3 and #4 seeds they will play each other in the other American League Wild Card series. Thus, the team that gets the third Wild Card will end up playing whoever has the worse record between the A.L. West champ and the A.L. Central champ, with the team with the better record, as well as the A.L. East champs, getting a bye.
The Astros were in much better shape a week ago, before they got swept by the Rays in Tampa. Like the Rangers, this week they won two out of three at home, though the Astros were facing a weaker opponent in the Royals.
Chicago White Sox — 80.7% playoff odds
What a great story! The Cinderella team of 2026, coming off three straight 100 loss seasons, currently 78-75, tied for first in the A.L. Central. Chicago has led the American League Central for most of the second half despite everyone waiting for them to fade.
The problem is that the White Sox are kinda starting to fade. They were 2.5 up in the division after beating the Twins on September 6. They’ve gone 3-7 in ten games since then, including getting swept at home by the Pirates, though a 3-1 win against Detroit on Thursday may have righted the ship. The White Sox currently are given a 51.0% chance of winning the A.L. Central, and a 29.4% chance of claiming a Wild Card spot.
Cleveland Guardians — 77.1% playoff odds
Cleveland has won the A.L. Central three of the past four seasons, including chasing down a Detroit Tiger team last season that was up as many as 11.5 games in the division in late August. When the Tigers* ended up going into sell mode, Cleveland was the team expected to inherit the A.L. Central lead when the ChiSox turned back into a pumpkin.
* The Tigers have a +74 run differential — fourth best in the American League — and are 72-81. The Rays have a +80 run differential and are 93-59. Baseball isn’t always fair.
The Guardians just keep plugging along, having just won two of three at home against Chicago, though the White Sox own the tiebreaker over Cleveland. Fangraphs has them with a 49% chance of winning the division and a 28.1% chance of earning the Wild Card.
Toronto Blue Jays — 23.8% playoff odds
Last year’s A.L. champs have not built on their 2025 success, and are sporting a 76-77 record. This is largely due to an underachieving offense with the best OPS+ among the regulars coming from third baseman Kaz Okamoto, with a 110 OPS+. George Springer (104) is the only other Blue Jays with at least 300 plate appearances to have an OPS+ over 100. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has a 92 OPS+ on the season and just nine home runs. He had his first home run at home this season less than a week ago. Its weird.
Still, Toronto has hung around, and after bottoming out at 49-59 in late July, they’ve won 27 of 45, including 11 of their last 17.
Baltimore Orioles — 4.5% playoff odds
At 75-78, the Orioles are just one back of Texas and Toronto, despite having gone into sell mode at the deadline. Their path to a potential playoff berth is a narrow one, but there is a path.
So what lies ahead for these six teams that are battling for playoff spots?
Texas plays three games at home against the Blue Jays, the team they are tied with in the Wild Card race, this weekend. After an off day Monday, the Rangers play three at home against the Mets, then finish out the season with three in Minnesota.
Texas holds the tiebreaker against Cleveland, Baltimore and Toronto, but would lose a tiebreaker against the White Sox or Astros.
The Rangers need to win at least two of three against Toronto to feel good about things heading into the final week. That would give the Rangers effectively a two game edge over Toronto in the Wild Card race, and at least a one game edge over Baltimore even if Baltimore sweeps this weekend, due to the tiebreakers. Losing two of three puts the Rangers behind Toronto by a game, and also likely means, at best, treading water relative to Houston and the A.L. Central teams, and likely losing ground they can’t afford to lose. I’d expect Skip Schumaker to manage the next three games like a playoff series.
The Rangers have Kumar Rocker going up against Dylan Cease Friday night, Cal Quantrill versus Jose Soriano on Saturday, and Jacob deGrom going Sunday, with the Jays’ starter yet to be determined. The Friday matchup is the worst one for the Rangers, though the heavy bullpen usage on Thursday means that the Rangers may ask Rocker to wear it if they get down significantly early, or have Trevor Williams eat innings to save the rest of the bullpen. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Robby Ahlstrom was sent down so the Rangers could bring up Winston Santos, who last threw 36 pitches on Sunday for Round Rock, as a length guy to be used in case of a blowout.
If the Rangers can win at least two of three, they should be in a relatively good place for the final week. I would expect Nathan Eovaldi, who says that after Wednesday’s four inning outing he’s ready to move back into the starting rotation, to start Tuesday’s opener against the Mets and, if the game matters, the season finale against the Twins, with deGrom most likely pitching the opener in Minnesota on Friday.
Houston finishes out their season with three at home this weekend against Atlanta, an off day on Monday, two games in Seattle, and then a four game set in Sacramento against the A’s. Atlanta hasn’t clinched the N.L. East mathematically yet, but up four on the Phillies and with the tiebreaker in hand, and with the likelihood of passing the Brewers or Dodgers to earn a first round bye remote, the Braves don’t have a ton to play for.
In the opener, Houston has Peter Lambert going up against our old friend Tyler Mahle (who has been surprisingly effective since being traded to the Braves, putting up a 1.25 ERA in 43 innings over 7 starts) in the opener, Hayden Wesneski facing Grant Holmes on Saturday, and then Hunter Brown going against our other old friend Martin Perez on Sunday. The Braves are narrow favorites on Friday, with Saturday’s game likely being a pick ‘em or the Braves as slight favorites. Other than a hiccup a couple of starts ago, Brown has been outstanding of late, and Houston is probably going to be a significant favorite in that matchup.
As for the Seattle and Sacramento series, the reflexive reaction is to say, well, Seattle and the A’s are terrible and are playing out the string, so Houston will go at least 5-1. I will note, however, that Houston has a losing record against both of those teams this season, including a 2-9 record against Seattle. The Rangers went 2-5 in Anaheim and Sacramento last month in a series we thought we could clean up in, and just lost 2 of 3 in Seattle. You may say, well, yeah, but that’s because we’re the Rangers and they are the Astros, but I’m going to tell you a secret…the Astros aren’t any better than the Rangers right now. And the A’s actually have a winning record this month, including winning a series in Toronto.
Houston will be without Carlos Correa the rest of the season, which is a blow for them, as he is one of just six players who have appeared for the Astros this season with an OPS+ over 100 (one of those six is Nick Allen). Yordan Alvarez has been an MVP caliber performer this year, Jeremy Pena is raking, Isaac Paredes has been quite good, but there have been problems elsewhere in the lineup, and their bullpen, outside of Josh Hader, has been shaky.
The White Sox played Detroit on Thursday and have three more against them at home this weekend before an off day on Monday, followed by three in Kansas City and three at home against the Rockies. The White Sox rotation is a bit unsettled, with Luis Castillo, acquired from the Mariners at the deadline, being moved to the pen in favor of 25 year old rookie David Sandlin, who has a 5.64 ERA and 5.04 FIP this season. If Chicago can take two of three against Detroit, they should be in good shape with their weak opponents the final week, though their Three True Outcome-oriented offense has cooled of late.
Because they have the tiebreaker over Texas, the Rangers really need the White Sox to either be very good or very bad at this point. If the White Sox are very good, it makes it more likely they win the division over Cleveland. Since Texas has the tiebreaker over Cleveland, we’d rather see Chicago win the division than the Guardians. Alternatively, if the White Sox go into a tail spin and finish, say, 2-7, that puts the Rangers in a better position to pass them in the Wild Card race and not have to worry about the tiebreaker.
Cleveland has three games at home against the A’s this weekend, an off day on Monday, then three games in Boston before finishing the season with three games in Kansas City. The Guardians figure to be heavy favorites in all three games this weekend, and a sweep would put them in a very strong position for the final week, even with having to face a very good Boston team (albeit one that will not have much to play for) at Fenway.
Something to be aware of — if the White Sox, Guardians and Rangers all finished with the same record, and tiebreakers between the teams would determine both the A.L. Central and the third Wild Card spot, the White Sox would be named division winners by virtue of having won the season series against Cleveland. Then the tiebreaker would be applied to the Guardians and Rangers, in which case the Rangers would get the third Wild Card spot since they also won their season series against Cleveland.
Cleveland also lost their season series to Houston, so they’d lose out to the Astros should the two of them tie for the third Wild Card spot. The only contender they have the tiebreaker advantage over is Baltimore, which is the team they’d be least likely to be tied with, I think.
Toronto, as discussed above, plays Texas this weekend in Arlington, and unless there’s much stumbling from the other contenders as well this weekend, whoever loses that series will likely be, if not mathematically eliminated, needing a Hail Mary to make the postseason.
Toronto then plays three in Baltimore Monday through Wednesday, is off Thursday, and finishes the season at home against Cincinnati. Toronto holds the tiebreaker advantage over Baltimore and Cleveland, lost their season series to Texas and the White Sox, and split their series with Houston, as far as potential Wild Card tiebreaker scenarios go.
Baltimore is three games back, making them a very long shot right now. They currently hold the tiebreaker advantage over Houston and the White Sox, with Texas and Cleveland holding the tiebreaker advantage over the O’s. The Jays would have the tiebreaker advantage over Baltimore unless the Orioles sweep the Jays next week.
The Orioles have three games at home this weekend against the Brewers, play Toronto Monday to Wednesday at home as discussed above, then play three at Yankee Stadium to finish out the season, making theirs the most difficult schedule of the remaining teams.
Got all that? Good. Hopefully, we’ll have reason to re-visit and update all this Monday morning.
