We are finally back. Now a week into Spring Training, quite a few pitchers are showcasing a lot of intriguing tweaks and adjustments to their arsenals, starting with Gavin Williams.
First off, a quick shoutout to TJStats for chart images and more! A more than worthwhile site that you should use throughout baseball season.
Secondly, I *WILL NOT* be looking into a pitcher’s velocity unless it is substantially up or down. We will call this the Doug Nikhazy rule.
Gavin showcased a sinker at times in 2025,
going to it less than 7% of the time, but in his first Spring start, it was heavily featured and likely lends to the belief that he will lean on it more in 2026. It was mislabeled at times on Statcast on Tuesday against LA and only tracked four sinkers, labeling three others fastballs, but thanks to the TJStats daily ‘Pitch Editor’, I was able to switch over the fastballs that matched the sinker profile, and came out with a quality breakdown of where Gavin’s sinker is at heading into the season.
Gavin’s sinker last season averaged 9.7 inches of induced vertical break and 15.1 inches of arm-side run. He went to it almost exclusively against right-handed hitters. In his first outing of the Spring, he turned to it against just righties, and it profiled with better shape, generating 11.7 inches of induced vertical break and 16.4 inches arm-side. Similar to his cutter last season, I expect his sinker to take a step forward in usage this season as he continues to round out his arsenal.
Now we’ll take a look at another Guardians starting pitcher, Slade Cecconi, who showcased more aggressive changes in arsenal in his first outing, and I am very excited about it.
Above shows the difference in movement patterns between Cecconi’s slider and cutter from 2025 to his first outing in the Spring. Cecconi’s cutter got him into quite a bit of trouble when he used it last season. It often turned into a cement mixer and hovered in the middle of the plate far too often, getting barreled at a 20% rate. In his outing on Wednesday, Cecconi’s cutter worked along an axis identical to his 4-seam (1:15), finding a more stable horizontal axis. His slider also generated nearly three inches more glove-side break with less induced vertical break.
He slider went through a more pronounced change. It works along a better horizontal axis, and in doing so, it’s become more sweeper-like. Cecconi generated more horizontal separation between his cutter and slider during his outing where it was more of a diagonal drop last season. This is a much needed change for Cecconi, whose struggles to work across the zone with his breaking pitches got him hit hard throughout 2025. He will need to utilize his slider more consistently to do this (3.1% usage in ‘25), and with a far better shape (106 TJStuff+ on 2/25, 98 TJStuff+ in 2025).
BULLPEN NAMES TO WATCH
- Shawn Armstrong showcased his good cutter/sweeper combo in his first outing on Wednesday
- Expect Armstrong to be a strong help along the back-end of the ‘pen. Gaddis will need him.
- Cody Heuer has struggled substantially early in his first couple outings this Spring.
- 31.4% overall zone-rate and 30% walk rate across 10 batters faced…not great!
- Franco Aleman’s two appearances have been split results
- First outing saw better command with swing and miss on slider
- control woes continued in second outing; allowed a home run and walked two batters, struggling to locate his secondaries still
SPOT START SQUAD WATCH
- Will Dion: 2 IP // 3 K // 0 ER // 4 whiffs // 28.6% whiff rate // .225 xwOBACON
- Showcased great command, quality low 90s fastball with good VAA traits; slider looks to be improved; likely this year’s Nikhazy
- Austin Peterson: 1.1 IP // 1 K // 1 BB // 3 whiffs // 4 ER // .565 xwOBACON
- Lived in the heart of the plate; does not have the stuff to venture inside the shadow; doesn’t have the stuff to get deep in counts to nibble
- Doug Nikhazy: 2 IP // 1 K // 1 BB // 0 ER // 3 whiffs // .663 xwOBACON
- Breaking stuff continues to be impressive
- fastball continued to look fringy; both induced whiffs and got smoked
- Breaking stuff continues to be impressive
