The Jets are 2-7 entering Week 10’s game in MetLife Stadium against the Buffalo Bills after Aaron Glenn’s club lost 35-12 against the Chiefs a week ago.
But Gang Green is slightly better than their record indicates.
Let’s dive into New York’s tendencies before this AFC East clash on Sunday.
Jets offense
Geno Smith, pocket passer
On Sunday, the Bills will face their fourth pure pocket passer of the 2026 campaign in Smith. The others being Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins.
Smith resides that lower-left quadrant, escaping the pocket on on a little over 10% of his dropbacks.
First-round talents
The Jets offense features five former first-round picks at marquee positions. Both of their tackles (Olu Fashanu and Armand Membo) were first-round picks. Two of their receivers (Garrett Wilson and Omar Cooper Jr.) — former selections in the first-round.
And the wild-card of them all, tight end Kenyon Sadiq — first-rounder in 2026.
While some of this talent hasn’t fully acclimated to the NFL just yet, there’s plenty of inherent talent within the Jets offensive unit.
As for Wilson, who missed last week’s contest against the Chiefs, he has the seventh-best Average Separation Score, per Fantasy Points Data, among receivers who’ve run at least 99 routes entering Week 10. And it’s Cooper Jr., not Wilson, who finds himself inside the Top 10 among all qualifying receivers in yards per route run currently at a hefty 2.73.
Minimal motion + play-action
The Jets don’t use a lot of window dressing in their offense. They’re currently owners of the sixth-lowest motion rate at 56.0%. And Smith has used play-action on 25.1% of his dropbacks, the 20th-highest among qualifying quarterbacks.
More than most teams, what you see is what you get with the Jets offensively.
Jets defense
Blitzing + base defense + man coverage
The Bills will get a reprieve from the blitzing extravaganza they experienced in Week 9’s game against the Vikings, but they better stay prepare to deal with extra rushers.
Entering this game, the Jets are fourth in the NFL in blitz rate at 41.2%, per Fantasy Points Data. In most years, that’s probably Top 2 or even the highest in the league. The blitz-happy way is foundational to Glenn’s defenses.
Two other core elements of who the Jets are defensively — they don’t move out of base often (so more linebackers, fewer defensive backs on the field), and they want to man-up in coverage.
New York has the 10th-highest base defense rate 33.3% — two spots lower than the Bills — and play man at the league’s fourth-highest rate (31.7%).
David Bailey
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft has gotten out to an rather productive start to his NFL career.
My No. 1 overall player in the class, whom I gave a “Jared Verse Lite” comparison to, Bailey has 31 pressures through nine games, the 13th-most among all edge rushers in the NFL.
He hasn’t regularly destroyed all left and right tackles in his path as much as the pressure total would indicate, but in Week 9 against the Chiefs, Bailey was genuinely tremendous. He displayed his whole pass-rush arsenal, highlighted by his patented outside speed rush and a speed-to-power based bull.
He’s a big-time talent starting to come into his own getting after the quarterback — 20 of his 31 pressures have occurred in the past four games.
Pass defense vs. run defense
The Jets don’t have the horses up front along the defensive line of a few years ago. But they’re still a stingy run defense thanks to the likes of explosive linebacker Jamien Sherwood and thumping safety Dane Belton.
Discounting garbage time, New York’s defense is currently ninth in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed.
The Jets also no longer boast Sauce Gardner out wide, D.J. Reed in the slot, and Jordan Whitehead at safety. And those truths have taken a toll on their pass defense.
The Jets are 30th in EPA per dropback surrendered and have allowed the fifth-highest passer rating at 103.5.
This matchup calls for the Bills to take to the air.
