The betting odds related to the 2026 NFL Draft provide more information than just how much money you can lose or win.
“Vegas always knows,” as they say, meaning there’s logic in looking at the odds to learn about the strongest possibilities on draft weekend. FanDuel Sportsbook has odds on who will be the selection for each of the first six picks in the draft, as well as the team to draft Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson.
As time goes on, there will be more angles to dive into from FanDuel, but let’s
see what we can learn about the Kansas City Chiefs’ ninth-overall pick from the current betting odds.
Note: Odds are based on a $100 bet. For example, a $100 wager on (-200) odds will net $50 in winnings, while the same wager on a bet with (+200) odds would create $200 in profit.
No. 1 pick
Odds-on favorite: Quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (-20000)
Nothing left to figure out at the top. Get ready for your Mendoza love to sour as it’s all but certain he will be the Las Vegas Raiders’ next franchise quarterback.
No. 2 pick
Odds-on favorite: Linebacker Arvell Reese, Ohio State (-230)
Next-lowest odds: Edge rusher David Bailey, Texas Tech (+340)
Reese may not be as overwhelming a favorite as Mendoza, but such low odds are significant. With a wide gap from Bailey to the third-lowest odds on the list (+950), the New York Jets appear set on drafting one of the draft’s top defenders.
No. 3 pick
Odds-on favorite: David Bailey (+230)
Next-lowest odds: Offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa, Miami (+310)
For the Arizona Cardinals in the third position, Vegas sees it as a tight race between these two and Reese (+390). There isn’t as much clarity in this spot.
No. 4 pick
Odds-on favorite: Running back Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (+140)
Next-lowest odds: David Bailey (+330)
One of the strongest narratives that stuck from the NFL Scouting Combine is the potential match of the Tennessee Titans and Love. His close-to-even-money odds suggest there’s legs to the widespread rumor.
No. 5 pick
Odds-on favorite: Linebacker Sonny Styles, Ohio State (+185)
Next-lowest odds: Safety Caleb Downs, Ohio State (+380)
Whether it’s a safety-turned-linebacker or a do-it-all safety that can hit you like a linebacker, the New York Giants appear to be focused on adding a playmaking defender from Ohio State.
No. 6 pick
Odds-on favorite: Wide receiver Carnell Tate, Ohio State (+175)
Next-lowest odds: Offensive tackle Monroe Freeling, Georgia (+380)
With the Cleveland Browns sitting at six, Vegas sees Tate as the most likely choice currently — but it’s worth pointing out semantics: the oddsmakers factor in the potential for a team to trade up. It’s especially a point to make because Freeling has been strongly tied to Cleveland through the pre-draft process.
Could it be the Chiefs?
The takeaway
If we want to believe Vegas is currently right, the following players are very unlikely to be available at pick No. 9
- Fernando Mendoza
- Arvell Reese
- Jeremiyah Love
- Sonny Styles
- Carnell Tate
The list excludes David Bailey and Francis Mauigoa, who are close in odds for Arizona at pick No. 3, but the selection of one could lead to the fall of the other. The second-strongest likelihood for Bailey is Tennessee, a team that seems to be locked in on Love.
With the Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints, and then Chiefs following the sixth-overall pick, it’s worth going back to the note on Tate being a potential trade-up target, as well as David Bailey. If either of those two is the top choice for Kansas City going into the draft, general manager Brett Veach may have to be aggressive on the phone with Cleveland and Washington at picks No. 6 and No. 7.
If the Cardinals take Bailey with the third pick, the odds suggest Mauigoa may slide past the sixth pick and be within range of the Chiefs, in a similar fashion as Tate and Bailey, depending on how the team values each player.
If Bailey, Mauigoa and Freeling are added to the five lowest-odds favorites listed earlier, this would be the list for Kansas City to choose from at pick No. 9 (based on the full list of the odds for picks No. 1 through 6)
- Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr., Miami
- Safety Caleb Downs, Ohio State
- Cornerback Mansoor Delane, LSU
- Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
- Wide receiver Makai Lemon, USC
- Offensive tackle Spencer Fano, Utah
- Offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
The twist
As the draft nears, the talk of where Ty Simpson will be selected will be interesting to follow for Chiefs Kingdom. If he can be valued by a team enough to be taken within the first eight picks, it just adds one more to Kansas City’s pool of draft prospects for nine overall.
FanDuel has the odds to draft Simpson by team, as follows:
- Cardinals (+130)
- Jets (+210)
- Los Angeles Rams (+600)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+900)
The top-two leaders in the clubhouse own the second and third selections in the draft — but also the same positions in the second round, allowing them an opportunity to trade back into the first round (or stay put) to draft Simpson.
Right now, Vegas sees the Rams at pick No. 13 and the Steelers at pick No. 21 as the other teams that could be interested, but there’s little evidence to suggest he is vaulting further up the board than that currently.
