Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, November 6 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
- Spread: South Florida (-13.5)
- Over/under: 68.5
- All-time series: UTSA leads, 1-0
- Last meeting: UTSA 49, South Florida 21 — November 17, 2023
- Current streak: UTSA, 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
The American Conference title race is heating up.
South Florida (6-2, 3-1 American), fresh off a bye week, eyes a bounce-back performance after taking the first blemish on its conference record Oct. 25
in Memphis. The Bulls play host as two-touchdown favorites in a Thursday night spectacle, but their opponent is coming off their best performance yet. UTSA (4-4, 2-2 American) is energized after handling Tulane in 48-26 fashion last Thursday night.
The Roadrunners look to derail another conference contender, while USF has its sights set on its first-ever American Conference Championship.
UTSA Roadrunners outlook
UTSA unearthed its true potential last Thursday night, thoroughly dominating Tulane, for all 60 minutes of action. This was the team the Roadrunners envisioned at the beginning of the year when retaining offensive stars like Owen McCown, Robert Henry Jr., and Devin McCuin, and it finally materialized against the Green Wave.
However, it happened in the Alamodome. UTSA is 24-0 against conference opponents at home under head coach Jeff Traylor, including two Conference USA Championship Game victories. But the Roadrunners are a different team on the road, registering a 1-10 record across their last 11 regular season games outside of San Antonio.
It’s especially noticeable within the offense, which has scored 36 or more points in all four Alamodome games and 24 points or fewer in all four road games. UTSA hopes last week’s performance by McCown creates significant momentum for the quarterback. McCown is coming off a 31-of-33 showing that featured 370 passing yards and four touchdowns — with his only incompletions being a drop and throwaway. In other words, it was nearly a perfect showing.
UTSA’s offense hadn’t featured as much verticality in 2025 as it did with McCown in 2024, but after Thursday night’s performance, the Roadrunners may look to give their quarterback more intermediate to deep throws. His wide receivers Devin McCuin and David Amador combined for 18 receptions, 209 yards, and four touchdowns last week, and getting those two involved will be a priority. Those are UTSA’s top two targets, but the Roadrunners also offer a deep tight end room that is frequently involved in the receiving game.
Until last Thursday night, UTSA’s offense was heavily reliant on the abilities of Robert Henry Jr. The senior running back is third in the FBS with 955 rushing yards, pushing toward 1,000 on Thursday night. Henry can strike from anywhere, boasting six 70+ yard pickups on the year, and that explosiveness allows him to average 8.0 yards per carry.
The Roadrunner defense hasn’t been as sharp as the offense for the most part, but last week was a turn of fortune for the unit. UTSA faced an uphill battle replacing 11 starters, and significant progress was witnessed against Tulane. The Roadrunners won the turnover battle 4-0 and never allowed the Green Wave to score on consecutive possessions.
Leading the group is inside linebacker Shad Banks Jr., a former TCU starter with a team-high 53 tackles to go along with two interceptions, two fumble recoveries, and four tackles for loss. Another advocate of turnover production is strong safety Jimmy Wyrick. The Roadrunners’ leading tackler out of the secondary, Wyrick has two forced fumbles on the year, in addition to a team-best six pass breakups. UTSA’s passing defense will need to be at its best, considering it ranks 113th in the FBS in yards allowed per game, heading into this challenging matchup in Tampa.
South Florida Bulls outlook
South Florida may not be ranked, but in all likelihood, Alex Golesh’s team controls its own destiny for the College Football Playoff. The Bulls already have an excellent résumé, downing 6-3 Boise State and 8-1 North Texas by 27 apiece and a Florida team which handled Texas and went neck-and-neck with Georgia. USF is 4-0 at Raymond James Stadium this year, winning all four games by at least 27 points. In these four wins, the offense is averaging 49.8 points per game while the defense is only letting up 15.
The Bulls’ offense is led by one of college football’s most mobile quarterbacks in Byrum Brown, who happens to excel just as much as a passer. The aerial version of Brown is fourth in the American with 1,964 passing yards, recording 17 touchdowns to six interceptions on a 62.9 completion rate. The ground version of Brown is averaging 119 rushing yards across his last four games, utilizing both agility and a powerful 6’3”, 231 pound frame to slip through defenders. Brown is seventh among FBS quarterbacks in rushing this year, and this element of his game opens up plenty for this hyperspeed up-tempo offense.
South Florida’s scheme also relies heavily on deep shots in one-on-one coverage. Its top three receivers Chas Nimrod, Keshaun Singleton, and Jeremiah Koger average 20.3, 15.6, and 19.8 yards per catch, respectively, often creating habitats for themselves downfield. Koger is on a particularly hot stretch with 334 yards and five touchdowns in his last four games, using his 6’3” height to his advantage to secure contested catches.
The Bulls are seventh in the FBS in total offense and 11th in the run game, and it’s more than just Brown extending broken plays. They rack up 226 rushing yards per game thanks to contributions from Sam Franklin, Nykahi Davenport, and Alvon Isaac, which all present a degree of explosiveness in an offense which relies on speed.
South Florida is averaging north of 40 points per game, and at the same time, its defense is holding foes to 24.4 points per game — the program’s best scoring defense since 2015. The Bulls are incredibly physical, and nobody embodies that more than the linebacker duo of Jhalyn Shuler and Mac Harris. The two leading tacklers on the team, Shuler and Harris combine for 12 tackles for loss, two interceptions, and five forced fumbles as the ultimate havoc raisers on the unit. Shuler is essentially an extra defensive back too, being credited with an American-best seven pass breakups to his name.
USF is elite against the run, but the same isn’t always true on the back end. The Bulls are susceptible to allowing explosive passing plays, as evidenced by their 129th national rank in pass defense. But takeaways equal stops, and USF knows this very well. The team is tied for the 10th in the FBS with 17 takeaways, operating at +6 throughout the year.
Prediction
There will be no shortage of touchdowns Thursday night in Tampa. Both offenses are extremely high-powered with explosive capabilities. South Florida averages roughly 50 points per game at home and should see the end zone frequently vs. a UTSA defense that surrendered 55 to North Texas and 42 to Texas A&M in road environments. The Roadrunners will fight back, gaining plenty of yardage through the Owen McCown-led passing game.
South Florida’s defense has shown to be an incredibly physical unit, and the Bulls’ linebacking duo will create plenty of chaos — and maybe even a turnover or two — to allow the offense to skate by with a 20+ point victory in Tampa.
Prediction: South Florida 48, UTSA 21
