After fielding a patchwork rotation for much of 2025, strengthening the starting staff felt like Baltimore’s biggest priority heading into the 2026 offseason. After two additions and one subtraction, the rotation is
undoubtedly better, but the front office still has an incomplete grade when it comes to adding starters.
The front office started their efforts to rework the rotation back in November when they shipped the injury-riddled Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for power-hitting outfielder Taylor Ward. Mike Elias & Co. then made their first big splash in the starting pitching market, sending a quartet of prospects and a draft pick to Tampa for Shane Baz. The most recent addition came just 9 days ago, when the Orioles agreed to bring back Zach Eflin on a 1-year/$10M deal.
If the season were starting today, the likely pecking order in the rotation would be:
- LHP Trevor Rogers
- RHP Kyle Bradish
- RHP Shane Baz
- RHP Zach Eflin
- RHP Dean Kremer
This five-man group is undoubtedly better than the 2025 Opening Day rotation. At the beginning last season, Eflin was the ace, 41-year-old Charlie Morton was the No. 2, Kremer was the 3, and Tomoyuki Sugano and Cade Povich rounded out the group. Morton is now retired, Sugano is potentially on his way back to Japan and Povich has been rightfully relegated to a long relief/minor league depth role.
Having the MVO version of Trevor Rogers and a healthy Kyle Bradish in the rotation all season already puts the O’s in a stronger position than at any point of the 2025 season. The trade for Baz and the resigning of Eflin represent high-upside moves that can help the rotation make a big leap in 2026.
Baz, the 26-year-old former first-round pick, brings elite stuff and strikeout upside only matched by Bradish among Orioles pitchers. The 6’3” Houston-native features a fastball that sits at 97mph and tops out at 100mph, while also possessing a cutter, slider and curveball that grade out as plus pitches on Statcast’s Stuff+ metric. He used that formidable arsenal to rack up 176 Ks in 166.1 innings last season, with his 9.52 K/9 ranking 14th among qualified starters.
Eflin is the opposite of Baz as a control-oriented pitcher who sits in the high-80s and low 90s, keeping hitters guessing with a true six-pitch arsenal. We’ve seen Eflin’s approach of living around the zone, limiting walks and pitching to weak contact yield excellent results in Baltimore; over his first 13 starts in black and orange, the 31-year-old pitched to a 2.76 ERA over 78.1 innings.
Yet, while both of these additions represent undeniable upside, they also come with a fair amount of risk. Baz missed the entire 2023 season after having Tommy John surgery, and only made 30+ starts for the first time in 2025. In ostensibly swapping Rodriguez for Baz, the O’s got rid of one flame-throwing Texas with questionable injury history for another—though Baz is further removed from his injury concerns.
Eflin, on the other hand, was only able to command a one-year deal at a modest rate because of his injury-plagued 2025 season. Multiple back injuries limited the 31-year-old to 14 starts, while trying to pitch through those injuries limited his effectiveness as he struggled to a 7.26 ERA over his final 10 outings. And while Eflin has never had a major, Tommy John-type injury, he’s no stranger to the IL. Throughout his 10-year career, he’s only made 30+ starts once (2023) and 20+ starts three other seasons.
The injury histories of both Baz and Eflin—as well as the Orioles’ recent bad luck with pitching injuries—should be enough to keep the front office chasing one more marquee signing for the rotation. Recent reporting suggests the Orioles are heavily involved with former Phillies’ lefty Ranger Suárez, while reports last month also indicated Baltimore’s interest in former Astro Framber Valdez.
Adding either Suárez or Valdez would take an already improved rotation and put it on par with the likes of Toronto, New York and other AL contenders. We’ve seen recent pennant winners like the Dodgers, Yankees and Blue Jays build on their success by adding more and more pitching. New York went to the World Series in 2024 and followed it up by handing a $200M+ contract to Max Fried. The Blue Jays followed up their recent World Series disappointment by giving Dylan Cease $30M/year. The Dodgers seemingly sign three new starters every offseason.
Winning teams seemingly always remain aggressive in addressing pitching. That’s the path the Orioles can follow if the additions of Baz and Eflin are the beginning of Baltimore’s pitching upgrades, not the end. We’ve seen the current front office place an emphasis on building starting pitching depth; the Orioles came into last season with five healthy starters, Albert Suárez in the bullpen, Rogers and Brandon Young in the minors and Bradish and Tyler Wells on the injured list.
Now, Baltimore needs prioritize adding quality depth. Right now, the likes of Povich, Wells and Young are one injury away from being forced into the rotation. If Elias & Co. make one more splash in the pitching market, they can position this Orioles rotation among the deepest in the AL. Make another starting pitching signing and the Orioles may have their perfect offseason.
