Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 25 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Mountain America Stadium — Tempe, AZ
- Spread: Arizona State (-6.5)
- Over/under: 46.5
- All-time series: Arizona State leads, 5-4
- Last meeting: Houston 62, Arizona State 45 — December 2, 1990
- Current streak: Houston, 2 (1989-90)
Setting the scene
Saturday night introduces a new Big 12 matchup. Three years ago, the Houston Cougars and Arizona State Sun Devils would have been American Conference vs. Pac-12, but the recent transplants now share the same league, and it’s a league in which they’re thriving.
Houston is bowl eligible at 6-1, emerging on a walk-off field goal last Saturday to slide past Arizona. Arizona State is 5-2 for the second-straight year, and the Sun Devils are fresh off a signature home upset over Texas Tech. The Big 12 race
is crowded, but the winner of this primetime showdown in Tempe inches closer to the ultimate goal of Arlington, TX.
This is the first matchup between the programs since 1990 when they played in a 62-45 shootout in Tokyo. In that Cougar victory, Houston quarterback David Klingler set an FBS record by logging 716 passing yards (since broken by Connor Halliday and Patrick Mahomes who totaled 734 apiece).
Houston Cougars outlook
Houston (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) has arrived. The Cougars are no longer a scrappy underdog that wins an occasional conference matchup thanks to a prevailing defense and turnover fortune. Houston is as complete as it’s been in three years of Big 12 membership, finally checking off the box of attaining bowl eligibility.
The most significant leap Willie Fritz’s squad made this year is seen offensively. Houston’s 31-28 win over Arizona may not have been its highest-scoring performance of the year, but it was definitely the most well-rounded offensive showing. The Cougars’ offensive line — which took time to gel — showed significant progress, allowing zero sacks for the first time and pushing aside defenders to produce a season-high 295 rushing yards on a 5.2 average. Houston’s run game wasn’t particularly a weakness, but now the Cougars know it can be a strength. With Dean Connors’ second 100-yard rushing performance of the year leading the way, the Cougars played smash-mouth football against Arizona, running 46 yards down the field on the game-winning possession.
But Connors isn’t the only Houston player capable of hitting the century mark. Quarterback Conner Weigman flirted with it in a career-high 98-yard rushing performance. At Texas A&M, Weigman was consistently burdened by injuries but fully healthy, he fits the definition of a dual-threat quarterback. He averages 197 passing yards per game but shows to be smart with the football, completing 11 touchdowns compared to two interceptions. Add six rushing touchdowns to that total, and that shows the impact Weigman brings to this vastly improved offense.
However, the passing game is facing adversity as 2024 leading receiver Stephon Johnson Jr. is expected to miss the remainder of the season with a foot injury. Houston still trots out Amare Thomas (27 receptions, team-high 510 yards), but no other wide receiver on the roster currently has more than six catches or 55 yards. Harvey Broussard and Koby Young are among the main names that must receive more utilization, but of course, there is always the reliable tight end Tanner Koziol, a large-framed matchup nightmare who leads the Cougars with 36 grabs.
Houston’s trademark is usually its defense, although its showing against Arizona wasn’t its best outing. The Cougars allowed 24 completions on 26 attempts as the Wildcats notched 28 points and 381 yards. However, Houston forced havoc plays in order to gain the upper hand, generating four sacks and producing a game-swinging 4th and 1 stop. The breakout player last game was Wyoming transfer strong safety Wrook Brown, who flew in for 1.5 sacks on blitzes, 3.5 tackles for loss, and a season-high nine tackles.
Brown is moving up on the tackles list after such a performance, but ranking first in tackles remains defensive tackle Carlos Allen — a rare position to see atop the leaderboard. Allen (listed as questionable) has 48 takedowns and 3.5 tackles for loss, demonstrating the amount of first-level stops Houston generates as a defense. Houston is one of 25 FBS programs allowing 3.3 yards or fewer per rush, and Allen is at the forefront of that. And although last week was a blip on the season résumé, the pass defense had been sharp to date, allowing under 194 passing yards on average. It was an interception-happy unit at the beginning of the year, but Houston only has one pick in the past four outings. The Cougars look to corners Latrell McCutchin and Marc Stampley II as the playmakers to cause that havoc.
And lastly, it’s worth noting Houston’s field goal success. Ethan Sanchez is a three-time Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week after nailing a 41-yard buzzer-beater to beat Arizona — his second walk-off kick of the year. Sanchez is 15-of-18 on the year, and 12 of those attempts were beyond 40 yards.
Arizona State Sun Devils outlook
Arizona State (5-2, 3-1 Big 12) faced a crossroads last week — fall to 4-3 and put the Big 12 title defense on life alert, or remain firmly in the contenders’ circle with a massive upset victory. The Sun Devils faced a Texas Tech team that won its first six games by 24+ points and never trailed for a single second doing it. Yet Arizona State clung onto a 19-7 lead with four minutes remaining, appearing to coast to a comfortable victory. But Texas Tech wasn’t going down with a whimper, and the Red Raiders suddenly claimed a 22-19 advantage at the 2-minute timeout.
Adverse situations like that are why Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson are so valuable. The 2024 All-Big 12 quarterback and receiver duo thrived in crunch time, connecting four times on the final possession and additionally drawing a pass interference on a fifth try. That allowed Raleek Brown to punch in the game-winner, commencing a field storm and all-out party in Tempe.
However, Arizona State will be without one member of its unstoppable tandem. Tyson is out due to a hamstring injury suffered in the Texas Tech game, and he visibly fought through pain on that final possession. However, the future NFL wide receiver is not seamlessly replaceable. Tyson has 57 receptions, and the next closest wide receiver (Malik McClain) has six. Tyson has 628 receiving yards, and the next closest wide receiver (Jaren Hamilton) has 145. The four most targeted players in the offense besides the star receiver are tight ends and running backs, so while Chamon Metayer and Raleek Brown must carry their load in the receiving game, a McClain or Hamilton must up alongside them.
But the offense is fortunate to have Leavitt who missed the 42-10 loss to Utah on Oct. 11 due to injury. The reigning Big 12 champion quarterback fired a season-high 319 yards in his first game back. Leavitt produced 281 rushing yards and five touchdowns in his first five starts this year, but his mobility remains limited from the ankle/foot injury he suffered earlier in the month — producing just three rushing yards vs. Texas Tech.
Instead, the run game will be handled by Raleek Brown, the Big 12’s second-leading rusher at 642 yards. Brown is up to three 100-yard outings this year and will look to become the second back to reach the century mark vs. Houston.
Arizona State is fresh off its most impressive defensive showing of the year. Texas Tech averaged 47.5 points per game through six contests yet couldn’t even generate half that amount in a 26-22 defeat in Tempe. The Sun Devils shined in nearly every facet, winning the turnover battle, forcing incompletions, limiting explosive runs, and getting off the field on critical downs. It was a contrasting performance from the prior week at Utah where Arizona State was gashed on the ground and yielded several explosives through the air.
Stopping the run is the forte of this Sun Devil defense, and the leader of the movement is outside linebacker Keyshaun Elliott. Elliott is on track for an All-Big 12 selection with 54 tackles, seven tackles for loss, and four sacks as the team leader in all three categories. While interior linemen don’t typically generate similar stat-lines, defensive tackle C.J. Fite generates similar impact as an athletic 6’2”, 305 pounding force commanding ample attention. Fite is one of five Sun Devils with five or more tackles for loss, and the team ranks 26th nationally in the category. Rounding out the position groups, the secondary features another star in Keith Abney II, a lockdown cornerback with seven deflections and a pick.
One other skill Arizona State offers is a strong kicking game. Eastern Michigan transfer Jesus Gomez went 4-of-4 last week and is 16-of-20 on the year. He’s drilled seven 50-yarders in his career and converted a game-winner to knock off Baylor in Week 4.
Prediction
This duel in the desert can be a thrilling back-and-forth affair. Both teams present enough offensive firepower and substantial defensive power, and it all likely meets in the middle with a score in the 20s. Arizona State’s offense will be significantly hampered without one of college football’s top five wide receivers in Jordyn Tyson, but Sam Leavitt can still make things happen with the cards he’s dealt Saturday.
Houston is a perfect 3-0 on the road this year, and the Cougars can attack in a variety of ways, whether it’s a Conner Weigman 300-yard passing performance or a more ground-oriented showing like we saw last week. The x-factor will be, what version of Arizona State’s defense shows up? The Sun Devils allowed 24 points or fewer in all but the Utah game, but the Utes showed a dual-threat quarterback and physical tailbacks can inflict damage on the run defense. At home, Arizona State should be able to generate the stops it did vs. Texas Tech, winning a tight one over the Big 12’s most improved program.
Prediction: Arizona State 27, Houston 23
