Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal posted to The Athletic his speculation that Bob Melvin could be on the hot seat. That’s a notion that’s quick to find purchase within a noticeable segment of San Francisco Giants
fandom, but it seems a bit at odds with the facts on the ground.
First, as Rosenthal points out, the pitching side of the ledger was outside of Melvin’s control. On the hitting side, Willy Adames was adjusting to a new environment, Matt Chapman missed some time, Heliot Ramos had a historically recognizable sophomore slump, Wilmer Flores was a big risk anyway, LaMonte Wade Jr. was one of the worst players in the sport, and the Rafael Devers trade did not bring the juice. The Giants were projected to be around .500 and here we are at the end of the season with the Giants hovering around .500. They’ve gone 33-41 since Buster Posey renewed Melvin’s option for 2026 as a vote of confidence. They’re not going to fire him.
Well, at least, they probably won’t.
There’s a powerful bloc of Giants fans — longtime season ticketholders — who definitely seem to have some influence on the team’s direction, and they were the ones clamoring for Bob Melvin just a couple of years ago. They were clamoring for Farhan Zaidi to go and Buster Posey to take over. They’ve gotten everything they’ve wanted and they’re still miserable — and the team hasn’t improved. Now, I’m not talking about you, Dear Reader. If you’re on McCovey Chronicles dot com with any regularity than I think you know ball well enough that you understand just how much of influence a manager has.
I should make it clear that this post isn’t about anyone losing their job. I may not have been on board with the Melvin signing from the beginning, but as a powerless blogger who can only opine, I don’t like putting myself in a position to demand or list reasons why such a thing should happen. Feels gross. On the other hand, I do think that the loudest complainers ought to be confronted with the fruits of their complaints.
I really think Giants fans should be forced to smoke the whole pack of Bob Melvin. If they’re unhappy with their dreams coming true, then that should be a moment of self-reflection. Why make their displeasure our problem?
The second fact on the ground is that although the Giants are 17th in runs scored, but their 691 runs are just 2 off of last year’s total — with 3 games to play. So… I think mission accomplished here? Bob Melvin got to make his own lineups this season, as was the demand. What’s the problem? Indeed, compare this year’s triple slash to 2024 and you see the improvements!
2024: .239/.305/.396, 97 wRC+, 8.1% BB%, 24% K%
2025: .235/.311/.385, 97 wRC+, 9.1% BB%, 22.8% K%
The third fact is that the players like playing for him. I think that counts for something even if it’s difficult to quantify. But if you’ve ever worked for or played for somebody you genuinely like then you can imagine a situation where giving that extra 2% doesn’t feel like a chore. But also, players don’t feel like they’re competing with both the other team and their own manager. Melvin might not be the greatest manager, but he’s managed to stick around long enough that this is a worthy factor to consider.
The last data point that’s really critical here is that the San Francisco Giants are not a good baseball team. They might not be a bad one, either. But in terms of personnel, Melvin could only play the dudes he has. The Giants are dead last in stolen bases since their miracle year of 2021, but since Melvin has taken over, the stolen base totals have increased!
2021: 66
2022: 64
2023: 57
2024: 68
2025: 68
The only logical conclusion to draw here is that the suggestion that the Giants should fire Bob Melvin is born of frustration and anger over the Giants being one of the biggest stinky losers for nearly a decade now, with the gulf between the franchise and the top of the NL West/National League/all of MLB widening every season. It denies the truth and ignores the franchise’s behavior: do you really think a team as cost conscious as the Giants will pay Bob Melvin to sit on the couch next season?
But, look, being a fan means being irrational, so I understand. It’s not about consistency, it’s about desire. I am certain there are fans who dismissed Bob Melvin’s performance in San Diego because they didn’t personally view the Padres as being all that talented or felt that Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. must be so selfish that it impacted that team’s performance who are now turning around and thinking that Bob Melvin must be mismanaging a very talented 2025 Giants roster like he did in his final season in San Diego. Or, they ignore the San Diego component and just think that these Giants are more talented than their record would indicate.
I would hope that after 159 games it’s pretty clear that the Giants aren’t all that great, despite a strong start. A lesson to avoid forming conclusions after just 38 games. The Giants were 24-14 at that point and still over a month away from adding literally Rafael Devers, but starting with game 39, the Giants are 54-67. Over their last 121 games, they’re…
24th in runs scored (508)
13th in ERA (4.04)
22nd in hitting+defense value (+11.9 fWAR)
16th in pitching value (+10.3 fWAR)
They have the fifth-worst record over this same span:
- Rockies, 37-85
- Nationals, 48-73
- White Sox, 48-73
- Twins, 51-70
- Giants, 54-67
- Athletics, 55-66
- Angels, 56-67
- Pirates, 57-64
- Atlanta, 57-65
- Royals, 57-63
You would have to be in complete denial of reality to think that the 2025 Giants are the 24-14 team and not this 54-67 monstrosity we’ve seen for most of the season. If you want to believe that Bob Melvin had no part in their Cactus League championship or that 24-14 start, that’s your prerogative. Thankfully, you’re not making the hiring decisions!
Buster Posey and Zack Minasian have a lot of work ahead of them. If Farhan Zaidi inherited a mess and Buster Posey inherited a mess, then the only conclusion is that the Giants are a mess. Bob Melvin is not the straw that broke the camel’s back. I’m not going to suggest he’s adding wins to this roster, either, but he certainly isn’t working against the team getting better. With Buster Posey being the face of the franchise, I suspect Melvin has far less stress than Gabe Kapler and Bruce Bochy before him. Kapler, famously, had to cover for an anxious introvert while Bruce Bochy was the legend who soaked up all of the attention. With less off the field stuff to concern himself with, I suspect Melvin has been managing to the peak of his ability this season.
One last thing: sometimes we’ll hear people say a termination “sends a message.” I’m not sure what that message would be in this particular instance, though, and for all the reasons I just went through; but, at the end of the day, I think trading for Rafael Devers and the team immediately tanking sent a longer-lasting message than any managerial switch or coaching staff shakeup will do (and, to be clear, it does seem like some sort of change is coming up). I think the Giants being mediocre-to-bad over the last 9 seasons is stickier. The Giants have sent messages, shook things up, been aggressive, thought outside the box, brought back some old school philosophies, signed big free agents, and made that blockbuster trade. And yet here we are… still staring into the abyss.
