The last eight months have been among the busiest in recent New England Patriots history. The organization hired a new head coach for a second straight year, rebuilt its staff on both offense and defense, spent big in free agency, and added 11 new players in the NFL Draft.
Now, it is time to enjoy the fruit of all that labor. On Sunday, the Patriots will welcome to Las Vegas Raiders to Gillette Stadium for both teams’ 2025 regular season opener. Whether it will be a successful start to the season as well
as Mike Vrabel’s tenure as head coach will be seen, but there are several factors pointing toward the home team coming away victoriously.
With that said, let’s find out who — in our humble estimation — has the edge in the game’s key areas.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Raiders pass defense: The big question for the Patriots will be just how well their offensive line will hold up against a pass rush led by Maxx Crosby and drawn up by veteran coordinator Patrick Graham. If the group can limit the damage and give Drake Maye time and space to operate without having to bail from the pocket on a regular basis, New England should be able to move the ball against what is an inexperienced secondary and a linebacker group not necessarily at the top of the athletic food chain. That “if” is a big one, but one Josh McDaniels might be able to scheme around incorporated quick passes and play-action. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Raiders pass offense: New England might be without its best coverage player, Christian Gonzalez, but there are worse opponents to face without your CB1. The Raiders’ passing offense, after all, projects to be a work in progress even with coordinator Chip Kelly and quarterback Geno Smith coming aboard this offseason. The team is still lacking any proven contributors at the skill positions outside of old friend Jakobi Meyers and tight end Brock Bowers. Both are capable receivers, make no mistake, but they alone won’t be able to carry the load for their offense against what should be a stingy pass defense even with Gonzalez potentially out. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Raiders run defense: The aforementioned questions about the offensive line remain true in the running game, despite the Patriots fielding some nasty run blockers up front. However, they will be going up against a defense that did perform well in the running game a year ago and should again be able to win its fair share of battles. Will that be enough to win the war? Possibly, but New England should still come out on top when it comes to moving the ball on the ground. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots run defense vs. Raiders rushing offense: The Raiders selected Ashton Jeanty with the sixth overall selection in this year’s draft, and he was a needed addition: the team’s run game was atrocious in 2024. Jeanty’s presence alone should lead to some immediate improvement, but there is only so much he can do against a defense that seems well-equipped to hold its own. With ex-Raider Robert Spillane leading the charge, New England appears to be in a good position to limit what Jeanty and company can do. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
Both the Patriots’ and Raiders’ new head coaches opted to retain their teams’ special teams coordinators from the previous season. That is a testament to the quality of the work that both Jeremy Springer and Tom McMahon, respectively, had done in the past. As far as the kicking game is concerned, this week could be a high-quality battle. So why are we giving the edge to Las Vegas here? The unit as a whole performed a bit better last year, and it also will not be relying on rookies in high-pressure situations as prominently as New England will. | Edge: Raiders
Coaching
Both Mike Vrabel and Pete Carroll are established NFL coaches with a track record of success. Both also surrounded themselves with experienced coaches in all three phases of the game. The main difference between the two coaching staffs lies in the defensive coordinator position: while the Raiders’ Patrick Graham is a seasoned DC who has shown he can lead a unit through in-game issues, the Patriots’ Terrell Williams — despite his overall track record as a defensive line coach — is a first-time coordinator. On two otherwise evenly-matched staffs, that is the deciding factor in our eyes. | Edge: Raiders
Verdict
Even though we are giving the Patriots the edge in all four passing and rushing categories, the game between them and the Raiders project to be a close one. For starters, New England does not project to have a massive advantage in any of those, while Las Vegas might be able to scheme up some trouble for what is a young quarterback playing behind an offensive line fielding four new starters from a year ago — including a pair of rookies on the left side.
Overall, the home team seems to be in a slightly better position to win on Sunday. The margin for error does remain quite small, though.
