Everton’s form over the previous eight days has confounded expectations, and messed with the emotions of the fans. Even the normally steady David Moyes is not immune to the trials and tribulations that are part and parcel of being in the Blues bubble recently — going off his somewhat tetchy demeanor during the pre-match press conference, prior to the team’s visit to Bournemouth.
No doubt the Toffees manager will be in a chipper mood, following his side’s convincing 1-0 victory on the South Coast,
and with Everton now having picked up nine points from their last four outings, the Scottish veteran has every reason to feel pleased with himself. Stern tests await his depleted squad, however, in the shape of Chelsea and Arsenal, but first up, there’s the small matter of former Blues boss Sean Dyche’s return, at the helm of Nottingham Forest.
Form
The East Midland outfit overachieved hugely last term, being in Champions League contention for much of the way, before faltering down the stretch, but achieving qualification for the Europa League was impressive enough. A late season fallout with the ownership saw popular manager Nuno Espírito Santo in a tenuous position over the summer, and into the new campaign. Even so, volcanic owner Evangelos Marinakis spent big during the transfer window — to the tune of €237m, across no fewer than 13 new additions, although the club raised €129m from 12 outgoings. The only major loss was winger Anthony Elanga, who was sold to Newcastle United for €61.4m.
It’s fair to say that, so far, the impact of most of the new signings have been muted. Winger Dan Ndoye (€42m, Bologna) has been a regular, as have – to an extent – fullback Nicolò Savona (€13m, Juventus) and striker Igor Jesus (€19m, Botafogo), but wingers Omari Hutchinson (€43.4m, Ipswich) and Dilane Bakwa (€35m, Strasbourg), loanees Douglas Luiz (Juve) and Oleksandr Zinchenko (Arsenal), Stade Rennais forward Arnaud Kalimuendo (€30m), attacking midfielder James McAtee (€25.5m, Manchester City) and a number of less costly players, have been peripheral figures.
With a cloud over Nuno from the off, Forest’s season degenerated into chaos almost straight out of the gate. Following an impressive opening day win over Brentford and a solid draw at Crystal Palace, defeat by Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium saw the Portuguese summarily dismissed by Marinakis, in a shockingly bizarre move. Ange Postecoglou was immediately appointed, but the Australian’s tenure would be a mere seven games in all competitions. One point from two Europa League games, an EFL Cup exit to Championship side Swansea City and three defeats from four in the Premier League, saw the winless ex-Spurs boss fired, after just 39 days in charge.
Lurking down in the lower reaches of the league table, the Tricky Trees looked in trouble and so for their third manager of the campaign, turned to trusty firefighter Dyche, who was once on the books at the club as a youngster, and is known to be a fan. The 54-year-old got off to a promising start, beating Porto in Europe, before going winless in three, but then turned things around with three victories on the bounce, including a shock 3-0 success at Anfield, over a struggling Liverpool. Since, Forest have been outplayed in losing at home to Brighton, and were unimpressive in their midweek 1-0 win over bottom club Wolverhampton Wanderers. They arrive at Hill Dickinson Stadium in 16th spot in the table, having pulled three points clear of the drop zone.
Style of Play
Dyche having spent two years at Everton, not much needs to be said regarding the way he sets his teams up. He’s only nine games into his role at Forest, but has switched the team back to his familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, and is drilling his players into a disciplined, rigid defensive structure, which has seen them score nine goals, and concede seven across six league matches.
There was some suggestion that, at the Toffees, Dyche had possibly the best squad of players in his managerial career, although he was operating under a tight budget throughout, but there’s no doubt that he’s inherited a strong group at Forest, a side which achieved Europa League qualification last term, before being strengthened significantly in the summer. Can the experienced Midlander kick on tactically, given a team which should really be pushing a top half finish? It’ll be interesting to see.
Team Assessment
Matz Sels will be in goal for the visitors; the Belgian is competent and well-versed in playing the ball long. At right back, last season’s incumbent Ola Aina is still injured, so Savona will start. The Italian is more of a defensive player, but on the left will be the more progressive Neco Williams. The talented Murillo looks to face a late fitness test, so Morato will partner the rugged Nikola Milenković – one of last season’s most impressive signings – at the centre of defense. Unlike the Serb, who is the type of old-school, low block centre half that Dyche loves, the Brazilian has failed to convince since joining the club last term.
The two central midfielders in Dyche’s system are Elliot Anderson and Ibrahim Sangaré. The former Newcastle man enjoyed a standout debut campaign in the Midlands, doing so well as to earn a likely berth with England, at next year’s World Cup, in the USA. The 23-year-old is an energetic all-rounder who’s played every league minute this term. Sangaré is a solid defensive midfielder, who is in the 91st percentile for tackles made. Playing higher up is Forest’s star performer, Morgan Gibbs-White. He has scored three goals in his last five appearances, and although considered a minor doubt for today, will probably start.
Jesus leads the line for the visitors. Not literally, one would hope. The Brazilian edition has only one league goal to date, but has started every domestic game under the new manager. Ndoye has typically lined up on the right, though Hutchinson was favoured last time out, against Wolves, with the Swiss moved to the left flank. Argentinian midfielder Nicolás Domínguez had been used on the left under Dyche previously. Ndoye fired eight goals in Serie A last season, but has just one in the Premier League. Last term’s starter, Callum Hudson-Odoi, has been relegated to bench duty recently.
Prediction
This really isn’t a game that too many Everton fans would have been looking forward to. By the time Dyche left in January, most were happy to see him go, so poor had been his last half-season in charge — but there will also be a grudging respect for his ability to set up a team which will be tough to play against. That Forest are nowhere near as bad a side as they’ve appeared during this tumultuous campaign, adds to the latent concern many will be feeling this afternoon. Although the visitors are missing a number of players, with a couple also late calls for selection, the Blues are hardly in good shape in that regard, and – crucially – lack Forest’s depth.
The Toffees rejigged lineup proved its mettle at the Vitality Stadium on Tuesday, with Jake O’Brien handed a rare start at the heart of defence, alongside James Tarkowski, and James Garner moved to right back. Defensively, both shone, and the team looked better balanced as a result. It was noticeable that the Everton captain enjoyed one of his best outings of the campaign, alongside the tall Irishman, who is the nearest thing to the sorely-missed Jarrad Branthwaite that the squad possesses. The impressive Tim Iroegbunam’s suspension, after getting booked against the Cherries, complicates matters, however.
Michael Keane is touch-and-go for today’s game, but should he make it, then we’ll certainly see a reversion to a more familiar setup, with Garner in midfield, and O’Brien at right back. This lineup is comfortable for the players, but is probably inferior to what we saw midweek. The rest of the team picks itself, although Carlos Alcaraz will likely retain his advanced midfield place, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall a standout in a deeper position. If Garner has to play fullback however, then who partners KDH in the centre is anyone’s guess, with Everton rapidly running out of midfield options.
As for the game itself, we know that Dyche will set up to contain the Toffees, looking to deny them space in the middle of the park, and to force play to one side or the other. This could see Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye doubled up on, and a breakdown in the Everton attack. The way to beat this setup is to move the ball quickly, and to hit switch passes to wrongfoot the defence: high tempo, and aggressive passing — not something the team are always effective at. Alcaraz’s willingness to get forward, and to look for a progressive pass, could be helpful, and KDH is currently on fantastic form, which should take some heat from the wingers.
Forest have pace and will be direct in transition, so the hosts must be wary, particularly if Keane and Tarkowski are paired together once more. The game may not be the most enthralling spectacle – a commonplace occurrence when watching Dyche’s Everton sides – but there will be plenty of endeavour on display, and aggression in the challenge, and the Toffees must come out on top in this battle. The visitors may have the stronger squad, but it also is lacking in cohesion when compared to the Blues, who are well integrated into Moyes’ methods by now. I’m predicting a tough, closely-fought victory for the home side.
Score: Everton 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com and transfermarkt.com
