San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. is exiting the first month of the 2026 season with a disappointing .250/.333/.290 line, zero HR, 12 RBI, and 0.0 WAR. A very strange start for a player with a career WAR of 27.2. Nevertheless, not an area of concern, but certainly a step back in run production.
Tatis Jr. is an elite defender with two Gold Gloves and two Platinum Gloves for his effort. However, for a player to be a Most Valuable Player candidate, the honor is closely tied to an outstanding offensive
season. Unfortunately, Tatis Jr.’s output is nothing to write home about.
Tatis Jr. has become a more patient hitter
Granted, we are still in April, but the Friar Faithful want to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The star outfielder seems to be willing to take pitches and be more patient at the plate. Tatis Jr. did not overhaul his swing mechanics but has concentrated on putting more of the bat’s barrel on the ball.
The adjustment has drawn 13 walks in 27 games, which could challenge his career-high 89 BB last season. His walk rate is at 10% for the first month, as he is swinging less and is more willing to take a walk that puts a runner on base for the heart of the batting order.
The lone negative to his start, Tatis Jr. is still striking out at an alarming rate with runners in scoring position. Currently, his walk-to-strikeout rate is nearly 1-2.5, with Tatis Jr.’s strikeout rate at 24.6%. It has led to some missed scoring opportunities, as he has been having trouble putting the ball in the air.
To become a better run-producer, Tatis Jr. must drive the ball
Tatis Jr. has an 18.7% fly ball rate, which is the lowest of his seven-year major league career. Surprisingly, he is hitting a career-high 49.3% groundball rate in 100 at-bats. This combination likely explains his 27-game homerless streak.
Let’s not get too restless, as the newfound plate discipline will result in better quality contact at-bats. The three-time All-Star’s OPS (.623) is decent, but nowhere near his career average of .859. Tatis Jr.’s best mark was .975 in 2021. He wants to put himself into favorable count situations. But Tatis Jr. is failing to lift the ball for extra base hits.
Despite the slow offensive production, Tatis Jr. is too talented a home run hitter to remain silent much longer. If he goes on a mini spree, his walk rate will likely decline.
He is scorching the ball when making solid contact, but it is right at the waiting glove of a fielder. Tatis Jr. is sporting a robust 66.7% hard-hit rate, well above the league average of 38.6%. He has an exit velocity of 93.3 mph this month. Tatis Jr. is trying to use the whole field and not pull every pitch. Still, you would expect better production than the results have shown.
His newfound plate discipline should provide more hittable situations. At some point, Tatis Jr. will do damage against opposing pitching.
