After back-to-back road contests, the New England Patriots return home in Week 5 for what will on paper be a marquee matchup. On the one side, you have the reigning AFC champions, who just improved to 2-2 on the year; on the other side, you have the upstart Las Vegas Raiders and their 3-1 record.
Both teams have had stretches of very good play this season, but as our head-to-head comparison shows, we are clearly trusting one of the two over the others.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Raiders pass defense:
Is Drake Maye back? It sure looked like it last week against the Buffalo Bills. Now, the newly-minted AFC Offensive Player of the Week will go up against one of the toughest challenges he has faced this season: a Raiders pass defense ranked fourth in the league in EPA per dropback (-0.078). From solely that statistical perspective, the visitors should have an edge this week. However, if Maye plays like he did in Week 4 and can keep mistakes at a minimum, and New England stays in manageable down-and-distance situations, he and his receiving corps should be able to put pressure on an opportunistic but somewhat inexperienced secondary. The big question is how the offensive line will hold up versus a ferocious pass rush led by Maxx Crosby, but Maye’s ability to escape a collapsing pocket should still allow him to find success even when pressured. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Raiders pass offense: Five of the six cornerbacks on the Patriots’ active roster are on the injury report, and neither Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) nor Carlton Davis (neck) were at practice on Wednesday or Thursday. The uncertain state at the position might be putting immense pressure on New England’s pass defense this week. We do feel confident in the team’s outlook if at least one of Gonzalez or Davis two suits up — Buffalo’s Josh Allen did find some success last week, but Kirk Cousins is no Josh Allen despite ranking 10th in the league in EPA per play among quarterbacks (0.214) — but both being out could be problematic. That said, the Raiders offense does not run through its wide receivers and the Patriots did a fantastic job against the Bills’ tight ends last week; a repeat performance would force the Raiders out of their comfort zone regardless of who lines up at CB. | Edge: Patriots
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Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Raiders run defense: The uncertainty surrounding Rhamondre Stevenson, who exited Sunday’s game late and is a limited practice participant to start the week due to an ankle injury, puts a question mark over New England’s ability to consistently run the ball against the Raiders. That said, even if he is available this week and at a 100% physically, Las Vegas should have a slight edge in this category. Outside of Drake Maye scrambles, which are pass plays, New England has struggled moving the ball on the ground at consistent rate, which is why the team is ranked only 23rd in EPA per run. Now going up against what is still the sixth-ranked run defense despite giving 177 yards to Kansas City’s Kenneth Walker this past week, it needs improvement across the board. There is little to suggest it will come this week against this particular opponent and considering the circumstances. | Edge: Raiders
Patriots run defense vs. Raiders rushing offense: Asthon Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. are a pretty good 1-2 punch at running back, but so far this season Las Vegas has not been able to get consistent production out of them. This could change on Sunday given that the Patriots have had their issues stopping the run. From that perspective, this can be seen as a classic weakness-versus-weakness matchup. Why do we still like New England? Because the Raiders’ problems appear to be more diverse and harder to work around on a week-to-week basis: the blocking has not been up to par, while Jeanty himself does not look entirely comfortable coming off an ankle injury. New England’s main issue has been controlling the interior line, but more reps for DaQuan Jones and getting Christian Barmore back from injury might help fix that. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The Raiders have been pretty good in the kicking game so far, with one player in particular standing out: third-year kickoff returner Dylan Laube, who leads the NFL with 33.4 yards per runback. For as good as Laube has been, he is only the tip of the special teams iceberg: Matt Gay has made all 19 of his combined field goals and extra points so far, Malik Benson is averaging 13.6 yards per punt return, and the kickoff coverage team — going against an uneven Patriots unit in that regard — has also been rock-solid. The only real problem has been covering punts but Marcus Jones has not been getting going in the game’s third phase so far either. | Edge: Raiders
Coaching
Not only are the Patriots players coming off their most complete collective game of the season, the coaching staff is as well. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr were both excellent against one of the NFL’s best teams last Sunday. Whether it was the former instilling some life into his unit and much-needed confidence into his quarterback through good play designs and sequencing, or the latter keeping Josh Allen in check while also taking away Buffalo’s two-headed tight end monster of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson, New England’s coaches are entering Week 5 with momentum. The Raiders’ rather inexperienced staff, meanwhile, will have to prove itself coming off its first loss together. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
The Raiders are a solid team and have impressed so far under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak. However, even more so than the Patriots they are a work in progress and have yet to show that they can compete against playoff-caliber teams; they couldn’t last week versus Kansas City. Even though the Patriots are dealing with some significant injury questions especially at wide receiver and in the secondary, they seem better equipped overall to find an edge and use it to their advantage.
