Following two disappointing performances, the Crimson Tide slinks home to lick their wounds and figure out a way to get an invitation to the Big Dance. Clearly, Alabama (5-2) is behind the 8-ball and must win out for even a prayer of making the CFP. That begins with a home game against the scuffling Aggies (4-3).
After beginning the season with five high-scoring wins, the Tide has experienced a power outage in the last two games scoring 17 and 10 points against Georgia and Tennessee respectively.
TAMU also started strong but have had issues on offense for several weeks now.
In the preseason, the Crimson Tide was a -2.5 favorite over A&M. But much has changed and now FanDuel has opening odds of Alabama being a 15.5 point favorite over the Aggies with an Over/Under of 50.5.
TEXAS A&M
So far this season, it seems the sportsbooks have overvalued the Aggies all season. They have been quite generous in both point spreads as well as decent sized Over/Under in each game. Most of them have been too high.
- Sep 5 vs Missouri State: -40.5 / 53.5, Won 50-0 (-50, 50) Won ATS / Under O/U
- Sep 12 vs Arizona State: -14.5 / 51.5, Won 48-20 (-28, 68) Won / Over
- Sep 19 vs Kentucky: -17 / 48.5, Lost 21-31 (+10, 52) Lost / Over
- Sep 26 @LSU: +8.5 / 52.5, Lost 6-35 (+29, 41) Lost / Under
- Oct 3 vs Arkansas: -13.5 / 50.5, Won 34-7 (-27, 41) Won / Under
- Oct 10 @Missouri: +4.5 / 50.5, Lost 6-27 (+21, 33) Lost / Under
- Oct 17 vs The Citadel: -45.5 / 56.5, Won 41-0 (-41, 41) Lost / Under
Following the first two games of the season, the Aggs have been underwhelming in scoring offense. In their three SEC defeats, they scored 21, 6, and 6 points with the latter two losses being on the road. The one SEC win was not much of a barometer being at home against woeful Arkansas.
TAMU is tied with Vanderbilt for last in the SEC in conference game scoring at 16.75 points per game. Even Oklahoma has scored more (17.67 ppg vs SEC). The A&M defense is middle of the pack (8th), allowing 25.0 points per conference contest.
ALABAMA
The Las Vegas guys underestimated the Tide for the first five, but overcompensated the last two games. It appears they believe the Bama boys will get back on track against Texas A&M.
- Sep 5 vs East Carolina: -29.5/52.5, Won 48-10 (-38, 58), Won/Over
- Sep 12 at Kentucky: -10.5/47.5, Won 45-17 (-28, 62), Won/Over
- Sep 19 vs Florida State: -19.5 / 50.5, Won 50-36 (-14, 86), Lost / Over
- Sep 26 vs South Carolina: -12.5 / 53.5, Won 49-18 (-31, 67), Won / Over
- Oct 3 at Mississippi State: -4.5 / 63.5, Won 56-23 (-33, 59), Won / Over
- Oct 10 vs Georgia -1.5 / 51.5 Lost 17-20 (+3, 37), Lost / Under
- Oct 17 at Tennessee -8.5 / 51.5 Lost 10-26 (+16, 36), Lost / Under
Over the first five weeks of the season, betting over on the Crimson Tide numbers was a pretty good bet. While everyone figured the showdown with Georgia would be a close one, there were not too many people who would have expected the outcome of yesterday’s Alabama-Tennessee game. Truthfully, the Bama defense did not play too badly. Poor field position put them in a hole on several occasions. No question about it: the Tide offense was a dumpster fire.
MATH
With an over/under points total of 50.5 and 15.5 point spread posted by FanDuel, the final score could look something like Bama 33-17 or so. Does that seem logical?
The Aggies do not have a lot of firepower, but Alabama has now lost two Super Bowls in a row. Might TAMU get fired up about playing the Tide? Might A&M quarterback Marcel Reed have his “Stephen Garcia moment” before he begins his career at State Farm? Can Keelon Russell get his mojo back. Is there any chance star receiver Ryan Williams returns and is effective?
For this one, I am not so convinced in the Tide numbers. A final score of 27-17 sound more likely, which is going under on both of these lines. What do you think? Give us your thoughts in Comments below.
