The top two playoff seeds going against each other with a Super Bowl berth on the line, the upcoming AFC Championship Game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos is a true marquee matchup.
That is, on paper it is.
After all, the game’s nature changed within an hour of the Broncos’ divisional round win over the Buffalo Bills: starting quarterback Bo Nix, who had taken all but four of his team’s offensive snaps this season, had suffered a broken bone in his ankle that would keep him out for the remainder of the season. Instead of Nix and fellow sophomore QB Drake Maye going head-to-head, the game instead will feature backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
Obviously, Denver’s quarterback situation is one of the biggest stories heading into the game. It is not the only thing noteworthy about New England’s upcoming opponent, though.
Broncos key stats
The Broncos finished the regular season tied with the Patriots and Seahawks for the best record in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, their statistical breakdown is impressive as well.
Record: 14-3 (1st AFC West/1st AFC)
Scoring differential: +90 (7th)
Turnover differential: -3 (t-19th)
Offense: 23.6 points/game (14th), 342.6 yards/game (10th), 17 giveaways (t-11th), 0.035 EPA/play (15th), 0.097 EPA/dropback (13th), 16th EPA/run (-0.069)
Defense: 18.3 points/game (3rd), 278.2 yards/game (2nd), 14 takeaways (t-26th), -0.058 EPA/play (8th), -0.035 EPA/dropback (9th), -0.105 EPA/run (8th)
What can be seen when looking at the Broncos is that their offense has been solid, but not necessarily outstanding in any particular category. In fact, some of the numbers suggest that this offense, which, again, will be without its starting quarterback on Sunday, has been below average. The Broncos, for example, are ranked only 19th in points per drive (2.05) and 20th in offensive scoring rate (37.8%).
The defense, on the other hand, has impressed. Not only did it give up the third-fewest points in the league during the regular season, it also looks the part in the efficiency metrics: it is third in points per drive (1.64), seventh in scoring rate (34.6%) and eighth in EPA per play. (-0.058). Where it really stands out, though, is the pass rush, finishing first in the NFL with 68 sacks — 11 more than the next closest team — and second in pressure rate (30.5%). As a consequence, no defense has given up a lower net yards per attempt number than Denver’s (4.8).
Broncos 2025 season
Coming off a 10-7 season with a one-and-done playoff trip, the Broncos started the season in rather uninspiring fashion: they lost two of their first three games. From that point on, however, they turned it on to finish with 14 wins and as the top seed in the AFC.
Week 1: 20-12 win vs. Tennessee Titans (1-0)
Week 2: 29-28 loss at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
Week 3: 23-20 loss at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)
Week 4: 28-3 win vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
Week 5: 21-17 win at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)
Week 6: 13-11 win at New York Jets (4-3)
Week 7: 33-32 win vs New York Giants (5-2)
Week 8: 44-24 win vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Week 9: 18-15 win at Houston Texans (7-2)
Week 10: 10-7 win vs. Las Vegas Raiders (8-2)
Week 11: 22-19 win vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: 27-26 win (OT) at Washington Commanders (10-2)
Week 14: 24-17 win at Las Vegas Raiders (11-2)
Week 15: 34-26 win vs. Green Bay Packers (12-2)
Week 16: 34-20 loss vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-3)
Week 17: 20-13 win at Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
Week 18: 19-3 win vs. Los Angeles Chargers (14-3)
Wild card round: Bye
Divisional round: 33-30 (OT) win vs. Buffalo Bills
While the Broncos did play some close games this year, they bested almost every opponent since their 1-2 start; only the Jaguars were able to come away with a victory against Sean Payton’s team. Last week, the Bills came close but they were undone by some untimely turnovers and penalties and ultimately fell in overtime.
Broncos active roster
Roster up-to-date as of Jan. 21, 6 a.m. ET | *denotes nominal starter
Quarterback (3): Bo Nix (10), Jarrett Stidham* (8), Sam Ehlinger (4)
Running back (4): R.J. Harvey* (12), Jaleel McLaughlin (38), Adam Prentice (46 | FB), Tyler Badie (28)
Wide receiver (5): Courtland Sutton* (14), Tony Franklin* (11), Pat Bryant* (13), Marvin Mims Jr. (19 | KR/PR), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (17)
Tight end (3): Adam Trautman* (82), Evan Engram (1), Nate Adkins (45)
Offensive tackle (3): Garett Bolles* (72 | LT), Mike McGlinchey* (69 | RT), Frank Crum (73)
Interior offensive line (5): Ben Powers* (74 | LG), Alex Forsyth* (54 | C), Quinn Meinerz* (77 | RG), Alex Palczewski (63), Sam Mustipher (61)
Interior defensive line (7): Zach Allen* (99), Malcolm Roach* (97), John Franklin-Myers* (98), D.J. Jones (93), Eyioma Uwazurike (96), Jordan Jackson (94), Sai’vion Jones (95)
Defensive edge (5): Nik Bonitto* (5), Jonathon Cooper* (0), Dondrea Tillman (92), Jonah Elliss (52), Que Robinson (51)
Linebacker (5): Alex Singleton* (49), Dre Greenlaw (57), Justin Strnad (40), Jordan Turner (55), Karene Reid (47)
Cornerback (5): Pat Surtain II* (2), Riley Moss* (21), Ja’Quan McMillian* (29), Jahdae Barrron (23), Kris Abrams-Draine (31)
Safety (5): Talanoa Hufanga* (9 | RB), P.J. Locke* (6), Devon Key (26), J.L. Skinner (34), Reese Taylor (35)
Specialists (3): Wil Lutz (3 | K), Jeremy Cranshaw (16 | P/H), Mitchell Fraboni (48 | LS)
Usually in this segment, we give a brief overview of the stats a starting quarterback has posted during the season thus far. We won’t be able to do that: Jarrett Stidham, who as noted above will start in place of Bo Nix, last attempted a non-preseason pass in 2023, when he started the final two games before Denver selected Nix in the first round of the draft.
Of course, a lack of statistics will not be a problem for the Patriots this week. Albeit under a different regime, they made Stidham a fourth-round draft pick in 2019 and for three season had him work with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Stidham later followed McDaniels to Las Vegas, where he spent one season before moving to Denver. In total, he started four games in his career while completing 117 of 197 pass attempts (59.4%) for 1,422 yards with 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.
Naturally, the pressure will not just be on him this week but his supporting cast as well. The run game in particular will be in the spotlight, and for good reason. R.J. Harvey (152/560/7) and Jaleel McLaughlin (41/208/1) have been solid, but the big name is one not on the 53-man team yet: J.K. Dobbins, whose 153 carries and 772 yards are still leading the team despite only playing 10 games, has been designated to return from injured reserve.
Stidham’s other weapons include a potent one-two punch at wide receiver: Pro Bowler Courtland Sutton (78/1,070/7) and Troy Franklin (65/709/6) are Denver’s most reliable downfield weapons, with fellow wideout Marvin Mims Jr. (45/415/2) coming off an eight-catch, 93-yard outing versus Denver. In addition to those three, tight end Evan Engram (51/468/1) has been actively involved as a receiver.
On the other side of the ball, first-team All-Pro Zach Allen is one of the biggest problems. An all-around impressive defensive lineman, he has registered 7.5 sacks this season. While an impressive number, other teammates have been even better at taking down opposing quarterbacks: Nik Bonitto leads the team with 15 total sacks between the regular season and playoffs, with Jonathon Cooper (8.0) and John Franklin-Myers (7.5) also worth mentioning.
Pass rush is only one of Denver’s defensive strengths, though. The team also has been stout against the run, particularly with off-ball linebacker Alex Singleton coming down from the second level. He and Dre Greenlaw are a formidable and experienced duo capable of moving both laterally and challenging the pocket versus the run and the pass.
In the backend, two second-team All-Pros are worth highlighting. Pat Surtain II is one of the truly elite cornerbacks in football, and in the same tier as New England’s Christian Gonzalez. Safety Talanoa Hufanga, meanwhile, is a do-it-all chess piece in the middle of Denver’s defense. Both are quality players, but neither of them is leading the team in interceptions. That honor belongs to nickelback Ja’Quan McMillian, who had two in the regular season plus a much-talked-about pick of Josh Allen in the divisional playoffs.
Broncos reserves
Practice squad (16): QB Ben DiNucci (—), RB Cody Schrader (5), RB Deuce Vaughn (42), WR Michael Bandy (83), WR Brandon Johnson (—), WR Elijah Moore (81), WR A.T. Perry (87), WR Kyrese Rowan (80), TE Marcedes Lewis (89), TE Caleb Lohner (84), OT Geron Christian (75), OL Calvin Throckmorton, DT Jordan Miller (90), LB Levelle Bailey (56), CB Jaden Robinson (33), S Tanner McCalister (30)
Practice squad international (1): TE Patrick Murtagh
Practice squad/injured (1): S Delarrin Turner-Yell
Injured reserve (10): RB J.K. Dobbins (27 | IR-R), FB Michael Burton, TE Lucas Krull (85 | IR-R), C Luke Wattenberg, OL Nick Gargiulo, OL Matt Peart, ED Matt Henningsen, ED Johnny Walker Jr, LB Drew Sanders (41 | IR-R), S Brandon Jones
Besides the aforementioned J.K. Dobbins, two other players on the Broncos’ injured reserve list have been designated to return: tight end Lucas Krull and linebacker Drew Sanders, both rotational options at their respective positions. Meanwhile, two starters — center Luke Wattenberg and safety Brandon Jones — are out for the remainder of the year. They will soon be joined on IR by Bo Nix.
Broncos coaching staff
Head coach: Sean Payton
Coordinators: Joe Lombardi (OC), Vance Joseph (DC), Darren Rizzi (ST)
Two years after leaving the New Orleans Saints, Payton joined the Broncos in 2023. He started out with an 8-9 record, but has since led his team to the playoffs in back-to-back years: Denver finished 10-7 in 2025 and 14-3 this year to give him a combined regular season record of 32-19, accompanied by a 1-1 playoff campaign. Coincidentally, Sunday’s game against the Patriots will be his first playoff contest against a team other than the Bills.
Payton’s coaching staff, meanwhile, is one full of experience. Joe Lombardi was an offensive coordinator with the Saints and Chargers, Vance Joseph a defensive coordinator with the Dolphins and Cardinals as well as one-time head coach of the Broncos, while Rizzi has coordinated special teams units in Miami and New Orleans and is a head coaching candidate in this year’s cycle.
