Week 16 brought Saturday night football too Chicago as the rematch that we’d all been waiting for took place at Soldier Field. Both the Bears and the Packers clearly made adjustments to their game plans entering this one, with the Bears defense notably playing a more “bend-don’t-break” style to limit Green Bay’s opportunities for explosive plays. This worked well, but the side effect was a drastic change in time of possession in favor of the cheesier team. To put it simply, while the Bears’ defensive
strategy was successful in limiting the points that the Packers were able to put on the scoreboard, it also made each Chicago possession even more valuable. This looked like it may pay off incredibly well with an early lead until a fumbled snap on a trick play resulted in a turnover on downs as the Bears ended their first drive in the red zone. From there, offensive success was limited to field goals until the miraculous finish. Here’s a look at our ongoing statistical benchmarking:
Quarterback
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Caleb Williams absolutely came to life in the fourth quarter of this game. With two critical drives to secure overtime period and then the victory, Williams elevated his stat line from mundane to very solid on the day. The context makes it all the more impressive. Five weeks in a row against strong defenses has not been a picnic for Caleb, but he’s held his own as a passer (91-of-168, 1,071 yards, 10 TDs, 2 INT), delivered a 4-1 record, and was close to another OT or a chance for one more game-winning play attempt in the lone loss at Green Bay. An encouraging sign that Caleb is picking up steam late in the season.
Caleb Williams
Comp: 2022 Jared Goff
Benchmark Statistics:
Running Backs
The Bears had success in the run game on a per carry basis, but as I described, the total number of offensive possessions was limited, with some having to be pass-heavy by virtue of trailing late in the game. This resulted in a fairly low volume run game for Chicago. Swift was able to carry the ball for 58 yards on the ground and another 12 in receiving yards, while Kyle Monangai added 50 and 43, respectively.
D’Andre Swift
Comp: 2022 D’Andre Swift
Benchmark Statistics:
Kyle Monangai, DJ Moore, Roschon Johnson, etc.
Comp: 2024 David Montgomery
Benchmark Statistics:
Tight Ends
Kmet and Loveland had a modest outing, but played a crucial role in setting up the Bears offense for crucial late scores. Generally, it seemed like the Packers had a good plan in place for limiting what the TEs could do to harm them through the air – especially Loveland. At this point in the season, I think we can see that both of these players are having very different seasons than their comps of Hockenson and LaPorta. Kmet clearly is in more of a balanced role than Hockenson played with Detroit in 2021, while LaPorta was able to flourish faster than Loveland has been as rookies.
Cole Kmet
Comp: 2021 T.J. Hockenson
Benchmark Statistics:
Colston Loveland
Comp: 2023 Sam LaPorta
Benchmark Statistics:
Wide Receivers
Unfortunately, the Bears were without both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden for this game. Two major weapons being out is far from ideal, especially when Olamide Zaccheaus has continued to raise questions about how dependable he can be in critical moments (ironic to me, considering OZ seemed to be Caleb’s “safety blanket” throughout the preseason). Thankfully, the DJ Moore emergence over the last two weeks has come at the exact right time, and undrafted rookie Jahdae Walker provided the necessary depth to carry the Bears to OT.
DJ Moore
Comp: 2024 Amon-Ra St. Brown
Benchmark Statistics:
Rome Odunze
Comp: 2024 Jameson Williams
Benchmark Statistics:
Olamide Zaccheaus
Comp: 2023 Josh Reynolds
Benchmark Statistics:
Luther Burden III
Comp: 2023 Jameson Williams
Benchmark Statistics:
The Bears have secured a spot in the dance. We know they’ll be competing in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean they have nothing left to play for over the next two weeks. They are still in position to win both the NFC North and potentially the #1 seed in the NFC and the first step in doing that is another tough victory. This time, they’ll go on the road Sunday night to San Francisco (technically Santa Clara) to play the 49ers in what should be a competitive matchup. The most optimistic among us may even suggest the team get a feel for playing at Levi’s Stadium, as this is where Super Bowl LX will be played.
