‘Tis the time of the year when season projections are released by NFL media members and analytics enthusiasts alike, and a major one just dropped with the Buffalo Bills in a familiar spot in the AFC hierarchy.
Austin Mock of The Athletic published the AFC results of his 2026 NFL season projection model which includes win-total projections along with playoff and Super Bowl odds (although it isn’t clear if Super Bowl odds mean advance to or win the Super Bowl).
In his model, the Bills are slotted for
the second-most wins in the AFC at 10.7. The Ravens are first at 10.9 victories. Clearly, his model expects plenty of parity in the conference, although his projection of nine teams with at least nine victories feels normal.
Interestingly, his projections have the Bills with the highest percentage chance to make the postseason in the conference at 73.4%, slightly higher than the Ravens’ 73.0%.
As for Super Bowl odds, Buffalo came in at 6.6%, the second-best percentage behind Baltimore’s 7.4%.
Mock has yet to release his NFC projections.
In his 2025 piece, Mock gave a general explanation as to what goes into his model:
My NFL Projection Model takes play-by-play data and creates offensive and defensive projections for each team. Using these projections, we can simulate the season 100,000 times to see how many games a team is expected to win, how often that team makes the playoffs, and the likelihood of winning the division and Super Bowl.
Mock did not include specific win-total projections last year, instead listing the favorites in each conference, with the Bills first, Ravens second, and Chiefs third. There was this ultimately prescient prediction in Mock’s AFC East section:
Remember, the Patriots are slated to face the league’s easiest schedule, per my projections, which gives them the best shot to dethrone the Bills.
In his AFC East section for the 2026 campaign, Mock speaks directly to the razor thin margin within the AFC East — as the Patriots are projected for 10.3 wins, with a 68.2% chance to make the playoffs, and 6.2% Super Bowl odds — and noted Buffalo’s defense was outside the Top 10 in his model.
On the Patriots, he later wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots were a better team this year compared to last, but their record doesn’t reflect it” but views New England as a team that will make a deep run in January. He finished by noting the model projects the Dolphins and Jets as far away from contending.
What say you about Mock’s 2026 projections?
