The competitive souls of the 2026 Cleveland Guardians were weighed in Tampa this weekend and found wanting. It’s time for the organization to adjust, accordingly.
We have been covering potential trade targets for the Guardians (two of whom are now injured, of course) and we will continue to do so, but it’s probably time for the Guardians to consider becoming sellers. How much did they ever intend to be buyers we may never know, but the Guardians simply don’t have an offense ready for prime time in the playoffs,
even in a weak American League. The Guardians are 23rd in wRC+ at 94, last in hard hit rate at 31.5%, second to last in barrel rate at 6.2%, and second to last in ISO at .141. The Rays are right around Cleveland in all these metrics and yet absolutely destroyed the Guardians beating them 5 out of 6 times this year. The Guardians have a 108 wRC+ against AL Central rivals and teams under .500 and an 81 wRC+ against opponents outside their division who are over .500. They simply are not good enough to beat a good team in a seven-game series.
Will this change? Well, things changing relies on significant steps forward from Travis Bazzana, Chase DeLauter, and Angel Martinez, on Jose Ramirez regaining his usual form before too long as he recovers from hamate surgery, and on Kyle Manzardo pulling his head out of his you know what. Additionally, Ralphy Velazquez, or Angel Genao, or Cooper Ingle will need to find their way to a breakout that translates at the major league level. OR, the Guardians will have to find a way to trade for a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat who I just don’t see on the market.
Perhaps the new CBA will provide a way to inspire Paul Dolan and/or David Blitzer to spend on free agent hitters, but I would not hold my breath. More likely, the team needs to develop and produce their own major leauge hitters. Juneiker Caceres, Nolan Schubart, Aaron Walton, Jaison Chourio and Welbyn Francisca are showing excellent progress at various paces throughout the minor league system. Instead of trying to add major league talent, one could argue that the Guardians should look to find more bat darts to throw at the target of fixing this problem, as well as some pitching depth that is never sufficient.
What do the Guardians have to sell? Here are some possibilities:
Steven Kwan – Kwan has finally found his way back to being a valuable hitter, with his wRC+ reaching 94 as of today. With his exceptional defense, I suspect there would be a contender willing to give some good value for Kwan. I am still not opposed to something like 6/$72 extension for Kwan, but, assuming that’s off the table, they should look to get the most out of his remaining value and not wait for an offseason that may be hugely affected by a coming lockout and potential lost games to do it.
Hunter Gaddis, Collin Holderman, or Erik Sabrowski – For different reasons, each of these high leverage relievers may be worth dangling. Gaddis has put a lot of mileage on his arm, also, and doesn’t strikeout quite as many hitters as one would like. Holderman’s breakout is new and could be fleeting. Sabrowski has extensive injury issues and his elbow may be a ticking time bomb. In a market where everyone is looking for relief help, any of these three could net a prospect with real potential to be a good, everyday player and I’m not opposed to the idea.
Kyle Manzardo – Manzardo has been terrible but he still has many encouragine metrics. I would not put it past a good hitting development group pushing to acquire Manzardo and fix him, willing to give up a prospect or two of interest.
Austin Hedges – No one wants to hear this, I suppose, but Hedges as a good hitter is probably worth a lot to some contending team in need of a backup who seems capable of helping a little at the plate. And the Guardians seemingly already acquired Hedges’ replacement in Patrick Bailey.
Bo Naylor – Someone, somewhere believes they can fix Bo Naylor and will offer a low-A prospect of good value and potential for him, I’m sure of it. Naylor doesn’t seem like he’ll be getting another shot in Cleveland, for whatever the reason.
To be clear, the team can cut Gabriel Arias, Rhys Hoskins, and/or David Fry and you’d hear no complaints from me. If there is a trade out there for any of the the three, go for it. Be my guest.
I would not look to trade any of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams or Parker Messick. It’s doubtful a team will offer enough to make Joey Cantillo or Slade Cecconi good pieces to deal. The one name who should be considered as a remote possibility is Cade Smith. If someone wants to offer a franchise-altering return for Smith (multiple top 100 prospects+), I think it’s something I’d consider. Reliever value is volatile and Smith is 27 years old set to put 220 innings on his arm in three years. Under control through 2029, there is no need to move him now… but it is a conversation worth having in case there is Mason Miller-to-the-Padres-type return out there, somewhere.
I know everyone is tired of hoping that prospects will pan out. But, the Guardians have given us little choice but to hope that the plan will finally begin to bear fruit in 2028 and beyond. Finding some more potential options to give this plan a chance at succeeding by trading off pieces of value from a team that simply doesn’t have the juice probably makes sense. I will not complain if this is the route they take… nor will I complain if they try to add a veteran bat or two, or a veteran arm. I don’t know if that’s wisdom… or indifference. I would say, if pushed on the issue, I think it makes more sense to shop Kwan, Hedges and one of Gaddis/Sabrowski/Holderman and turn their attention to 2028 and beyond for a real run at a World Series… after they have hired some new hitting development folks from another organization, but that’s another article entirely.
