Given where we are, it’s funny to be this mad about a season, and still be potential buyers. The Orioles have played ugly-looking baseball all season—too much K’s, too many caught stealings, too many boneheaded defensive maneuvers, the stars aren’t popping and the bullpen’s been dreadful—yet they still limped into the All-Star break with a hint of momentum: a four-game winning streak that got them to 46-51, still five games under .500 and fourth in the AL East, but just two games back of a wild card
spot. After a summer of three-game win streaks that kept evaporating into losses (eight, which, wow) a win streak that reached game four felt like progress. Will it mean anything for the next 65 games? We’re here to find out.
Baltimore trails Tampa Bay by 11 ½ games in the division and sits 1 ½ back of a suddenly-hot Boston for third place. In the wild-card chase , the O’s are two games behind a Seattle-Minnesota tie, with Boston and Houston also in the way. BaseballReference gives them a 12.8 percent shot at the playoffs; FanGraphs is more generous at 22.2 percent, projecting a 33-32 second half that would leave Baltimore at 79-83 — a tick behind Boston and Chicago, and outside the field.
I’m afraid the schedule won’t make this any easier. The Orioles come out of the break set to face their immediate competition, with a six-game trip to Houston and Boston. Then they come home to face Atlanta and Philadelphia (the top two teams in the NL East, at 55-40 and 54-44, respectively) with a three-game stop on the road against fourth-place Detroit sandwiched in between.
Suffice it to say, the next four series are absolutely pivotal to this team’s playoff hopes.
There’s no soft landing coming out of the gate. The Astros, felled early by injuries, had a successful June (going 16-11, or .593) and definitely aren’t packing it in. If anything, according to trade-deadline chatter, they’ll add bullpen help and outfield depth before August 3. The Red Sox have won nine straight and, despite a roster stacked with IL entries, look more like buyers than sellers (although, sick burn, The Athletic, which says the Red Sox “tilt more toward Target than Saks”). Detroit, meanwhile, sits just 6 ½ games out of the AL Central lead and, even if the Tigers eventually deal Tarik Skubal at the deadline, it’s likely they’ll still be playing meaningful baseball when the Orioles visit.
August doesn’t let up, for that matter. The month begins with the Phillies visiting, followed by a quick breather when the last-place, reliably-bad Angels come to town. Then, two three-city trips—the first ten-games long, across Texas, Minnesota and Tampa Bay, and the second nine games against St. Louis, the Athletics and Colorado. Those trips are sandwiched around a homestand back in Baltimore against the Yankees on August 18-20.
No rest for the weary in that stretch. The first three teams the O’s face in August are contenders, or at least on the bubble. The pitching-strapped Texas Rangers have been floated as possible sellers, what with Jack Leiter possibly done for the season, Jacob deGrom scratched from his last start, and Jordan Montgomery only just nearing a return after 22 months of the shelf. On the other hand, they’re still leading a very weak AL West division, so maybe not. The Twins, despite currently possessing the second wild-card spot, are borderline sellers/buyers, too. If they buy, it’ll be for relievers, but they could instead choose to get a haul for pitchers Joe Ryan and Bradley Ober, or infielder Josh Bell or catcher Ryan Jeffers, instead. It’s hard to know what shape Minnesota will be in when Baltimore arrives early in August. Tampa Bay is the division leader, although they’ve cooled down to a near-.500 team since the summer started heating up, with a 20-18 record in June-July. The O’s are 3-3 against the Rays on the season so far.
If, and I said “if,” the Orioles are still competing in mid-August, especially after that crucial homestand against New York, the time to bank wins is that nine-day stretch in late August. The Cardinals are just one game out of the wild card, but they’re lacking in any starting pitching that could scare you. (They also don’t have many pieces ready to deal, other than old Orioles friend Ramón Urías.) The road trip concludes with the Rockies, still a rebuilding also-ran (how long can you say a team is “rebuilding”?), and the Athletics, who are hamstrung by injuries with little incentive to add.
I’d like to, but can’t, say that the schedule turns friendlier down the stretch. The only good thing to say about it is, there’s a lot less cross-time-zone traveling. Fourteen of the Orioles’ final 23 games are at Camden Yards, and every remaining road game is in the Eastern time zone. That said, it becomes time to face all the foes in the AL East, with a four-game stretch off the bat against Boston, two series against Toronto, and a wrap-up to the season with three games against the Yankees in the Bronx. In between are sprinkled homestands against Cleveland and Milwaukee, and a trip to Queens to face the dreadful Mets.
That’s the thing: four of their last seven series, other than those against the Mets and last-place Toronto, are competitive. If the Orioles can stack wins against the Mets and the Blue Jays, the season could end on a credible, competitive note—but they’ll still have to stay above water against first-place Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, and current wild-card holders Cleveland and New York. Even Toronto can’t necessarily be counted as a cakewalk, what with the O’s currently 3-4 against them.
Orioles bench coach Donnie Ecker put it plainly the other day: “Your record is the truth and that does define who we’ve been. It does not define where we can go.” That’s true as far as it goes. But the team has put itself in this mess, what with continued near-.500 play for four months of the season.
Now, the O’s front office has been described as having an extremely difficult deadline calculus, with so many bubble teams in the mix, and Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward and Trevor Rogers all mentioned as valuable potential pieces to move. But between a brutal opening month back from the break, two long road trips through August, and a front office that’s confused, rather than energized the fan base this season, the Orioles are staring down a schedule that makes the playoffs look like a highly optimistic scenario come October.
