Five games remain in the 2026 regular season.
The Cubs, Padres and Phillies are currently tied for the top Wild Card spot at 87-70, with the Cubs holding the tiebreaker in any of the two-team or three-team tie scenarios among those clubs.
The Diamondbacks are 83-74 and on the verge of elimination, four games behind all three clubs; their elimination number with the Cubs is 1, so the Cubs can clinch a Wild Card spot by defeating the Marlins Wednesday (or a D-backs loss to the Rockies).
This is where
it’s really fortunate that the Cubs have that tiebreaker over the Padres and Phillies. If all three teams wound up tied at the end of the regular season, the Cubs would get the first wild card spot. In that scenario they’d host the Phillies, because Philadelphia swept their season series 6-0 over San Diego. Here are all the various tiebreaker rules.
This article in The Athletic noting the odds and percentages for various postseason scenarios has been updated through Tuesday’s games, so let’s have another look at the various odds and chances.
First, here are the percentage odds for the possible postseason matchups for the first two rounds:
The Athletic" />
As you can see, compared to the last post I made on this topic on Monday, the chances for the Cubs to be the No. 4 seed (and top Wild Card) have decreased from 60 percent to 45 percent. The Cubs still control their own destiny — win out and they’re the top Wild Card.
The Brewers are still very likely to be the No. 1 National League seed. They currently lead the Dodgers by two games and hold the tiebreaker.
Now, here are the Cubs’ percentages of making the postseason and where they would wind up, based on each possible W/L record in the remaining six games:
The Athletic" />
The Cubs still are 60 percent or better to host the Wild Card Seires next week if they can go at least 3-2 over the five remaining games. Going 4-1 or 5-0, obviously, increases those odds.
The good news is that even if the unthinkable happens and the Cubs don’t win another game, they still have a 94 percent chance of getting into the postseason as the No. 6 seed.
But let’s be positive and think about taking the next two games from the Marlins. That would be a huge boost.
Now, here’s what we know about the series this weekend between the Cubs and Red Sox scheduled to begin at 6:10 p.m. CT Friday at Fenway Park.
As I wrote yesterday, I think the best move would be to move the series to a neutral site, perhaps Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. The league seems disinclined to do that. Instead, this might happen:
This might actually work. Here is the current weather forecast for Boston on Friday:
A chance of showers, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Northeast wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
That’s… not terrible, though it will be quite windy. It seems likely that the teams could get two games in before the rain hits later Friday and possibly all day Saturday and Sunday. If they do play a doubleheader Friday, it’s possible that the National League wild card race could be sorted out after that and the third game could be cancelled. More on the doubleheader possibility in this Athletic article by Sahadev Sharma:
A doubleheader Friday or Saturday is possible, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke anonymously so as to freely discuss a fluid situation, with Friday being the more likely. The forecast suggests conditions will get worse over the weekend, with rain expected all day Sunday.
I’d think they would have to make this decision sometime later today. I will update this article if such a decision is made Wednesday afternoon. As always, we await developments.
