As the business end of season looms, Fiorentina enters a stretch in which it desperately needs maximum points to escape relegation. Back-to-back Serie A wins for the first time this season have generated a bit of momentum and even hoisted the Viola out of the drop zone, albeit only on tiebreakers. The trip to Udinese is always tricky; even though the other Bianconeri have lost 3 straight, they remain their usual stubborn, well-organized selves and will doubtless be ready to go.
The match will be played
on Monday, 2 March 2026, at 19:45 GMT/2:45 PM EST, at the Stadio Friuli in Udine. The forecast calls for an evening that’s a bit cloudy and a bit chilly but should be quite nice, actually, for the 200ish Zebrettini fans who actually show up; I’m not sure what it is about that arena but it always seems empty, even though it averaged a higher attendance than the Franchi last year, albeit due to the construction. More importantly and to Udinese’s credit, the brass has designated this as Heart Health Week in memory of Davide Astori.
Three things to watch for
1. Pushing the pace
The main difference between Kosta Runjaić’s Udinese and past vintages is that, rather than sit back and soak up pressure, this one is much more active out of possession, which suits a roster full of athletic players. They like an up-and-down game and will create problems in transition by simply overpowering opponents. That should suit Paolo Vanoli just fine because he’ll be able to set a deep block and make his side tough to break down. Udinese will get some chances to attack a disorganized defense, of course, but minimizing those opportunities is key because outside Arthur Atta, there isn’t really anyone capable of breaking down a set back line.
On the other hand, Fiorentina’s built to attack at transitions as well. Moise Kean has scored in 3 straight games and his nuclear threat in behind remains one of the league’s most devastating weapons. Losing Manor Solomon to injury stings but Fabiano Parisi, at least, is well-suited to playing on the break. If that’s the plan, Nicolò Fagioli will, as usual, be the key man. His knack for floating passes over the top might be the best avenue to goal while allowing the Viola to remain defensively stable.
2. Replacing the irreplaceable
Albert Guðmundsson remains an enigma. Even before his latest injury, he’d shown glimpses of talent at most. Throughout his nearly 2 years in Florence, he’s never looked like the sort of player who can consistently improve a team. The stats are fine (7 goals, 3 assists) but much like Guðmundsson himself, they’re flimsy: 3 of his goals have been penalties. He lacks tactical discipline and physical strength, limiting his impact. He’s not a bad player but he’s one who lacks any versatility and he offers very different qualities than Solomon. I worry that his narrow starting position and inclination to come back towards the ball will lead to the same stodgy, static Viola attack that’s dogged the team since he joined.
Dodô’s been Fiorentina’s bellwether for much of his Viola tenure: as he goes, so does the team. His pace and quick-twitch explosiveness aren’t replaceable, but that’s what Niccolò Fortini will have to do. The 20-year-old’s an excellent prospect but that’s all he is right now. Physically, he’s ready aside from an occasional clumsiness. Technically, he’s a decent 1-v-1 dribbler but offers an end product that’s uneven at best. The real issue, though, is his mental lapses. Biffed clearances, blown marking assignments, and a generally subpar reading of the game will make him a target for Udinese at all times. He has to limit his mistakes for Fiorentina to survive.
3. The pressure
Fiorentina’s out of the drop zone but hardly safe. With 12 games left in the league season and at least one more round of Conference League games, this group is running out of time to secure salvation and is doubtless far more aware of that than anyone. The recent improvement shows that Vanoli’s correcting the course but the collapse against Jagiellonia demonstrates just how fragile that correction is. A team like Udinese, which has spent a quarter century in these regions of the table, is ready for this kind of game. Fiorentina isn’t.
Beyond that, though, there’s extra pressure to get a lot of points from these next few games, starting here. The fixture list reads @Udinese, vs Parma, vs Raków, @Cremonese, @Raków, vs Inter Milan, @Hellas Verona; if the Viola can take 10+ points from those 5 games, they’ll probably assure their survival. They’d better, too, because the final 7 games look really tough: vs Lazio, @Lecce, vs Sassuolo, @Roma, vs Genoa, @Juventus, and vs Atalanta. Basically, Fiorentina needs to do its work now to guarantee a positive (okay, not-entirely-negative) conclusion to this miserable season. If that extra pressure on the players worries you, I imagine that you’re in good company.
Possible lineups
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Ted’s Memorial Blind Guess Department
The bookies lean Udinese but only barely. I assume they’re focusing on 1) the relative historical success of these clubs to the exclusion of the current season and 2) the past 3 weeks. That’s a bit iffy for me, especially in light of Fiorentina’s absences and how the table stands. Sure, the Bianconeri have been bad of late, but the Viola offer the ultimate get-right opportunity for any ailing side. Throw in the injuries and I find it hard to believe that the visitors have a particularly good chance of anything more than a point.
Nevertheless, I’ll stick to the bit and predict a 1-2 result with Moise Kean and Marco Brescianini on the scoresheet for the good guys and Thomas Kristensen for the bad guys. I’m expecting a typically choppy game with quality badly lacking in the middle as it descends into the rock fight that every meeting between these two seems to end up as. I’m not expecting much of a spectacle as that doesn’t really suit either side but hopefully Fiorentina can come away with 3 vital points.
Forza Viola!
