Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs (hi, Dan!) and his basement supercomputer have been hard at work getting the ZiPS projections for the 2026 season ready, and today marked the drop of those for the Cincinnati Reds.
Keep in mind that the model used here includes players who were on the Reds for the 2025 season and have since reached free agency, so the tables will include the likes of Nick Martinez,
Zack Littell, Emilio Pagan, Miguel Andujar, Brent Suter, Scott Barlow, etc.
They’ll also include some pretty rosy projections for one Sal Stewart, even if ZiPS – like everyone except the Reds front office – thinks he’s best suited to maximize his value as a 3B. Fortunately, ZiPS sees the incredible glove of Ke’Bryan Hayes as good enough to offset his wet noodle of a bat for the time being even if getting 2 wins out of a corner infield position that way couldn’t be any more boring.
ZiPS also has lowe expectations for the fallout of that trade – the move of Noelvi Marte off the hot corner and over to RF. At 0.1 zWAR, RF is now clearly the worst projected position on the roster here.
Perhaps the biggest grievance I have with the projections are for Nick Lodolo, who was mostly excellent during a 2025 season that was his healthiest as a pro. ZiPS sees him as only a 1.6 zWAR pitcher – over a run below that of Andrew Abbott – while I believe the 2026 was just the tip of the iceberg for what Lodolo has in store for the coming season (and seasons, really).
On the whole, it looks to Dan and ZiPS like the Reds – as currently constructed – are just about a .500 team with pretty clear flaws offensively and in the bullpen. Fortunately, those are two areas that pretty obviously need upgrades, so it’s impossible that the Reds front office would simply leave those needs underaddressed, right?
Right?!
What say you about these, Red Reporters?
