The Florida State men’s basketball team is badly in need of a “get-right” game. The Seminoles are losers of five straight contests, with four of the five coming by 15+ points. During this stretch of stink, FSU’s ranking on KenPom has plummeted from a high of 57th on November 28th to 118th.
If ever there were an opponent tailor-made to be a get-right game, it’s the Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils. The visitors from Itta Bena, MS are 0-10 this season against Division 1 opponents and sit 365th—dead
last—in the aforementioned KenPom rankings. MVSU comes to Tallahassee following an 88-64 home defeat at the hands of Tarleton State earlier this week.
Florida State Seminoles vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils: How to watch, stream, odds
Date
- Friday, December 19th
Time
- 7 p.m. ET
Watch/Stream
- Channel, stream: ACC Net Extra
Listen
- Seminoles Radio Network
- FSU Broadcast: Ch. 371/SXM App
Spread
- -40.5, Florida State on Hard Rock
- -31, Florida State on KenPom
Over/Under
Notes to know:
- A 40 point spread sounds bonkers if you’ve watched the last five Florida State games. The ‘Noles haven’t just been losing, they’ve been embarrassed. Even worse, the body language from the players often reeks of quitting as soon as the first signs of struggle emerge. But as bad as it’s been, believe it or not it was just 3.5 weeks ago when FSU defeated Cal State Bakersfield 89-59, and Mississippi Valley State is a decent bit worse than CSB.
- Just how bad is MVSU? The Delta Devils rank 365th (aka, last) on offense and 363rd on defense. They turn the ball over just a tick under 25% of their possessions, they rank 350th in 3 point shooting, they give up offensive rebounds on over 37% of their opponents’ missed shots, and their 355th at the frequency they send their opponents to the free throw line.
- However, there is one area where Valley State is actually pretty darn good: free throw shooting percentage. The Delta Devils are making 77.7% of their FT attempts this season, good for 22nd in the country. This feels like a noteworthy stat given that FSU just sent their most recent opponent to the free throw line 47 times…
- Florida State’s entire offense is predicated on making open looks from the perimeter, ideally coming in the form of catch-and-shoot threes off of kick-outs following a paint touch or offensive rebound. When Florida State began the season 5-1, the ‘Noles had games where they knocked down 13, 17, and 18 deep balls. Since then, something has gone terribly awry. FSU hasn’t shot above 31% from three since November 21st and combined to shoot just 20-68 in its most recent two-games. These guys simply have to make more shots.
What’s at stake?
There’s a strong case to be made that FSU’s NCAA Tournament chances are already kaput. With a NET ranking of 149, the string of blowout losses will likely be too much to overcome on the metric side of things, even if FSU scored a few surprising upsets in ACC play.
Having said that, despite the lopsided nature of the losses, the ‘Noles only have 1 loss below Quad 2 and there will be plenty of Q1 and Q2 opportunities in ACC play. So in theory, if the team found a way to rack up 5-6 wins that are much more lopsided than the computers anticipate, perhaps Luke Loucks and Co. could at least make things interesting come February.
Any attempt at walking that narrow path needs to start tonight. Florida State’s early season rise was due to throttling a handful of teams less-bad than MVS by 25+ points. If the Seminoles don’t win by at least 35 tonight, it’s another sign that something has materially changed with the team over the last month.
