We are now here in Week 2, and we have another late game against an FCS team, UC Davis! Here are the predictions from our staff, plus a special guest picker drops in for the first time in over a year!
Andrew Berg (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Not all FCS opponents are created equal. Although there’s an understandable presumption to write them all off as obvious wins when they pop up on the schedule, there’s a big difference between North Dakota State (who can’t even get FBS teams to schedule them) and teams like Stetson and Davidson in the Pioneer
conference. Coming off an FCS quarterfinal and ranked #5 in the FCS polls, the Aggies are much closer to the former than the latter. UC-Davis is built on a fast-paced offense that likes to run the ball. HC Tim Plough has paid his dues as an assistant up and down the west coast, previously as the Davis OC during one of the best runs in school history. He was the Boise State offensive coordinator for a season and change before coming back to the Aggies and bringing them to the highest ranking in school history. The offense will lean on a rotation of RBs and an experienced offensive line. If there’s one thing the Huskies are concerned about coming out of Week 1, it’s the depth and talent along the defensive line. Don’t be surprised if we see some frustrating, sustained drives by UC-Davis where we all ask ourselves why we can’t get this lower-division offense off the field. The defense also features some star players at the FCS level. Rex Connors was a pre-season All-American at safety and won Big Sky Defensive POTY in Week 1. David Meyer was also an All-American at ILB last year. However, the Aggies turned over most of their defensive front and were not great against mobile QBs last year. The Dawgs were much better offensively in the second half against Colorado State when Demond Williams got out of the pocket or got rid or the ball quickly. The same should be true this week. I’m also excited to see if the huge game by Jonah Coleman is about to become the new norm. If the offensive line can play as well as they did against the Rams, he could pile up even more yardage. Any FCS team coming into Husky Stadium will face an uphill battle. With that said, UC-Davis is a talented and accomplished FCS team and should be able to put up a fight. I’m picking Washington to win by a fairly comfortable margin, but don’t expect it to be a walkover.
Washington 40 – UC-Davis 21
Max Vrooman (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
I got the final margin of victory correct last week so I’m officially the best in the game (ignore that Christian Caple picked my exact score, he clearly somehow got access to this write-up in advance last week and copied me). UC Davis is absolutely not a team that Washington should be taking lightly despite their FCS label. They’re one of the better teams in that division and Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranks them ahead of 26 FBS teams. They’re likely in a tier below Colorado State by not by much and the Rams were tied with Washington into the 3rd quarter.
Of course, that was only the case because Washington shot themselves in the foot with poorly timed sacks, an early snap resulting in a fumble, and multiple 3rd/4th and very long conversions by CSU. If the Huskies simply make the smart play such as not taking a sack on the edge of field goal range or keeping everything in front of you on a 3rd and 15 then they should be fine.
UC Davis QB Caden Pinnick isn’t as fast as Demond Williams but he has plenty of agility to evade rushers in the pocket and extend plays with his legs. Those type of QBs have given UW fits in recent years and I expect him to have a solid game. UC Davis had multiple 60+ yard scores last week against Utah Tech so there is some explosion there as well.
I expect a similar game script to last week where it’s closer than you’d like (although maybe not tied at halftime) for a while before UW pulls away in the second half.
Washington- 41, UC Davis- 20
Mark Schafer (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
For the second year in a row, a Big Sky team will roll into Montlake for a late game against the Huskies. I have learned to never, under any circumstances, underestimate any Big Sky team, no matter what. That being said, this game, like last week, will be a good test for the identity of this team, at least defensively. Coach Walters has said that this game will be a good test for the communication of this defense and I’m inclined to agree. This UC Davis team features a heavy run RPO scheme, with a mobile quarterback in the driver’s seat of the offense. We’ll see if we can mitigate some of the mistakes we made last week, but if we can’t, don’t be surprised if this game is worryingly close before the Dawgs pull away. I’m an optimist, so I believe that the mistakes will be cleaned up, at least that’s my hope. Offensively, I expect the offensive line to once again assert their will and clear the way for Jonah, Adam and Demond and for the Huskies to ride the wave to a few touchdowns in the run game. In the pass game, I’m watch for any signs of a clear winner in the race for the WR2 spot, as Omari Evans will not be playing. Look for Denzel Boston to have another good game, but for me, it’s about who can play off of him when the Aggie defense covers him up. Overall, I expect a little bit of an adjustment period, but eventually the Huskies will lean on their stars, and hopefully contributions from their supporting players, and go home with an easy win! Washington-45, UC Davis-17
Raymond Lucas Jr. (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Last weekend’s margin of victory wasn’t as wide as I predicted, but the Dawgs are 1-0 regardless. Colorado State played better than expected and UC Davis hopes to do the same.
Will they?
I doubt it.
UC Davis kicked off the season with a 31-24 victory over Utah Tech in Week 1. They scored 24 unanswered to rally in the third quarter. The Aggies are no slouch in the FCS, ranking No. 8 in the FCS STATS Poll. If they can keep the game close, it’ll be because Caden Pinnick had another big game. Against Utah Tech he threw for 253 yards on 21-of-31 attempts and three touchdowns. Having similar success against UW is hard to imagine, and it likely wouldn’t be enough because this is a game where the Husky offense will score a lot of points if the starters are on the field long enough to do it. UW’s secondary is far too talented for Pinnick to put up upset-type numbers and being overly aggressive will leave him with at least one interception.
Whether Demond Williams, Jonah Coleman or Denzel Boston, UC Davis isn’t equipped to contain UW’s star trio. Utah Tech’s far lesser offense put up 24 on UC Davis, UW might double that. It probably should.
Expect minimal reps for UW’s stars in the second half of this one. We saw last season that Jedd Fisch isn’t one to run the score up. I’d imagine another viral moment for Coleman, before he’s eventually pulled along with the rest of the starter.
Washington-42, UC Davis-13
Gabey Lucas
I will be in Wenatchee doing a show to pay my dues for my hockey team-slash-cult so will be unable to watch this game, but as CFB broke my brain after the 2023 season and I haven’t watched a full game of any team since, that’s par for the course.
49-0 babyyyy.
Prediction Stats
Straight Up: Washington-5, UC Davis-0
Against the Spread: N/A (no line available)
Average Score: Washington-43, UC Davis-14
