The drama of the NBA Draft Lottery came and went Sunday afternoon, and the most likely landing spot for the Bucks is what they get: they will select 10th in next month’s NBA Draft. As I’ve written about extensively, including this morning, the first-round pick swap they traded to New Orleans—which became property of Atlanta last year—will not happen, as they received the eighth pick. Atlanta receives the most favorable of New Orleans’ and Milwaukee’s picks, which ended up being the former’s at eight.
The disaster scenario where the Bucks leaped into the top four but had to swap back thankfully did not occur.
Two teams just a few spots ahead of the Bucks with the sixth- and ninth-best odds got all the lottery luck: the Grizzlies at third and the Bulls at fourth. They each rose into the top four, hitting on 37.2% and 20.2% chances of jumping up, respectively. Those two go right after the two big winners: first overall goes to Washington, who finished with the league’s worst record, and hit on the 14% chance of grabbing no. 1. Next up will be Utah, who was tied with Sacramento for fourth-worst, had an 11.4% chance of receiving no. 2. Right now, FanDuel has BYU’s AJ Dybantsa as the favorite to be taken by the Wizards at -550, followed by Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, and Duke’s Cameron Boozer. Those three, plus UNC’s Caleb Wilson, have long been the consensus top four in this class.
With those two teams rising into the top four, that meant teams with worse records fell out. This will be music to Bucks fans’ ears: the biggest loser is definitely the Pacers, who finished with the league’s second-worst record and second-best lottery odds but fell to fifth, which was their most likely outcome (27.8%). Recall that at the deadline, they traded two first-round picks (plus a second, Bennedict Mathurin, and Isaiah Jackson) to the Clippers for Ivica Zubac. Those two firsts were their 2026 pick, top-four protected, and their 2029 pick, unprotected. If Indiana had stayed in the top four (52.1% chance), they’d have kept this year’s first and instead sent LA their 2031 first unprotected. But in the 47.8% of outcomes where they fell to fifth or sixth, they’d send this year’s first to the Clippers, and that’s exactly what happened.
Here is the full lottery order:
- Washington Wizards
- Utah Jazz
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Chicago Bulls
- Los Angeles Clippers (via Pacers)
- Brooklyn Nets
- Sacramento Kings
- Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans)
- Dallas Mavericks
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Golden State Warriors
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Miami Heat
- Charlotte Hornets
Brooklyn had the third-best odds and fell to sixth (their most likely spot at 26%). That might seem like a big blow, but the Nets have had eyes for Giannis for a long time, and if the Bucks decide to listen to offers on their star, the Nets have the best draft asset to dangle. The other loser is Sacramento, who had the same record as Utah but lost the tiebreaker coin flip to determine who received the fourth-best odds, slipped to seventh (also their most likely spot at 25.5%) despite having the fifth-best odds.
Other teams long rumored to be interested in Giannis didn’t see their slim hopes of moving up, thus having a primo lottery pick to offer Milwaukee, come to pass: Golden State got 11th, and Miami got 13th. I have a hard time thinking that their packages, headlined by 2026 picks that are worse than the Bucks’, would be the winners in a potential sweepstakes, especially over Brooklyn. Atlanta also might be interested and can offer eight, but again, Brooklyn would outbid them. I don’t think anyone else in the top 10 would either want Giannis or be willing to give up their pick for him, especially anyone in the top four, which is seen as so loaded.
Back to the pick itself, though. Milwaukee can draft someone there or trade it after the draft concludes, to comply with the Stepien rule. If they stick with 10, my hope is that one of the four guards who many mock drafters have going between five and nine is still available: Arkansas’ Darius Acuff, Illinois’ Keaton Wagler, Houston’s Kingston Flemings, or Arizona’s Braden Burries. It’s very likely all will be off the board by the time the Bucks select, though.
Assuming those guys are gone, Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr. would also be a good get—he was in many top 10s before a late-season back injury. Then there are two guys from Michigan: center Aday Mara and forward Yaxel Lendeborg. Mara is a big riser thanks to the Wolverines’ national title run, and even if the 7’3” Spanyard doesn’t develop an outside shot, his ceiling is high enough that he could force the Bucks to trade Myles Turner towards the end of his contract, which runs through 2029 (Turner can opt out in 2028, though).
Lendeborg is on the old side for a draft prospect at 23, but the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year was a two-way monster whose development across six years of amateur play (three in junior college) impressed me. His ceiling probably isn’t an All-Star, but of the names I’ve mentioned, he might be the most NBA-ready. At 6’9” and 240 pounds, his frame and skillset suggest he could become a productive role player pretty quickly, perhaps even as a rookie.
I’ll let our draftnik writers delve more deeply into prospects over the next six weeks. Lastly, let’s touch on trading the pick. They could offer it post-draft to another team, either as part of a package for someone already in the NBA, or for additional firsts. Maybe Joe Dumars wants to get the Pelicans back into the draft, and would take no. 10 and Kyle Kuzma for Trey Murphy. The Bucks could also trade down and get a future first for their troubles. For example, maybe the Thunder want to move up from 12. They could trade that selection, plus one of their many other firsts, to Milwaukee for the chance to pick at 10. OKC also owns Philly’s pick this year, which was already slotted in at no. 17. Or they could send any of the five firsts they’ve received from other teams (Nuggets, Clippers, Spurs, Mavs) in 2027–29.
We’ll have a lot of draft coverage in the weeks ahead, including the return of our community draft board. Until then, what should the Bucks do with this pick: keep it or move it? If you want them to keep it, who do you think they should take at 10? Who would you pick between Brown, Mara, and Lendeborg? If you want them to move it, what do you want in return?
