Hey, there’s football! And for your old-timey power rankings, there are plenty of options to choose from. Everyone has a Power Ranking. People LOVE Power Rankings! But over here in analytical nerd land we’re trying something a little different. This is the futuristic cyber version of power rankings, and we’re using our best cyber technology to generate cyberly objective power rankings. Power rankings are all about arguing about why they’re wrong, and it’s one thing to be subjectively wrong like everyone
else, but it’s quite another to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.
What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see last year’s rankings week by week here. As the season has not started yet, this initial version of Calculator uses a combination of the final statistics from last year and projections for this year.
To kick off the season, the Baltimore Ravens lead the way, while the Panthers are bringing up the rear — although they’re trending the right way, and if I had to put some money on the worst team in the league, give me the Saints all day.
1. Baltimore Ravens: CALCULATOR Score: 110.84, Change from last season, -15.02 – Up at the top of the rankings you’re going to see almost every team sliding from last year’s final rankings, but don’t read too much into it. The primary reason for this is that if you were a Super Bowl contender last season, your odds of winning increased as the season went on, and lesser teams were eliminated from contention, but it’s also an artifact of projection systems like DVOA not predicting outliers. The Ravens have an outstanding team, great coaching, a great quarterback, Derrick Henry, and they play in a division with the Browns and the Aaron Rodgers Steelers. They also have the Jets, Vikings, Pats, and Dolphins. What’s not to like?
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 103.78, -8.35 – The reigning champs come in as the best NFC team, and deservedly so, as the Eagles are loaded with talent on all sides of the ball. That said, they potentially have some depth issues in the pass rush, and as their passing attack was merely average last season, some of the progression systems see them as coming back to earth a bit. FTN in particular projects them for fourth in the NFC in DVOA, still very good, but hardly prohibitive favorites. All of that, plus a fairly difficult schedule outside of the division (KC/LAR/DEN/GB/DET/LAC/BUF), may make it difficult to repeat their 14-win season from a year ago.
3. Buffalo Bills: 103.25, -9.42 – The Bills are Super Bowl favorites behind only Baltimore, and any time you have one of the league’s best quarterbacks, there is reason for optimism. The Bills don’t have any obvious weaknesses and they play one of the easiest schedules in the league due to a terrible division, so they should have no issues charging into the playoffs. There, the stacked AFC that features most of the league’s top quarterbacks (including Josh Allen) makes it difficult for even a great team to consistently reach the Super Bowl.
4. Kansas City Chiefs: 98.35, -35.59 – Usually a team like the Chiefs, which relied heavily on winning close games en route to yet another Super Bowl appearance, would crash back to earth as their one-score luck deserted them, but it’s hard to bet against Reid and Mahomes. So far, during the tenure of the legendary coach and all-time great quarterback, the Chiefs have successfully weathered a decline in receiver quality, a decline in offensive line quality, and a host of sub-par running backs to post a top-10 offense. However, there is probably a limit to their super powers, and we may be approaching them. Mahomes has been a hit a ton over the past two seasons as the offensive line play has really suffered, and I’m not sure Kansas City did quite enough in the offseason to patch it up. They’ll probably be “fine” because they’re always at least fine, but they didn’t add a major weapon, and if you continue to get your Hall of Famer hit, it’s eventually going to cost you.
5. Detroit Lions: 94.38, -61.79 – Any time you win 15 games, some amount of regression is likely so the only question for Detroit is exactly how much. They’re still a talented team, especially on the defensive side of the ball which will benefit from the return of Aidan Hutchinson, but few teams suffered as much upheaval as the Lions. They lost Ben Johnson to the Bears and Aaron Glenn to the Jets, outstanding center Frank Ragnow spontaneously retired, and their PUP list is quite lengthy. The other major issue for the entire NFC North is schedule strength, as the Lions face the sixth most difficult schedule overall, and every team in the division faces a top seven schedule. The Lions are still a good team, but they are far less likely to run away with an impressive record, and much more likely to be scrapping for a division title, and maybe a wild card with the Packers. The NFL is a lot of things, but “fair” isn’t one of them.
6. Green Bay Packers: 85.82, 3.63 – The Packers are the first team on the list to actually move up from their finishing position last season. Part of that is the boost from trading for Micah Parsons, but a bigger part is the disconnect between the Packers’ efficiency numbers and their output from last season. Projection systems love efficiency and so the 2025 Packers (and you’ll note, the 49ers) get a boost in what the world thinks they SHOULD do, but underlying that idea is the reality that they did not live up to their potential last season. I’m not entirely sure what to make of the Packers myself, especially on offense, where they seem quite good until something goes wrong, at which point all of Matt LaFleur’s clever plans and counter plays need to be replaced with some up-tempo improvisation. Until I see a little more of this, I’m going to have a ceiling on the Packers. Love the defense though.
7. San Francisco 49ers: 78.34, 16.64 – There is a LOT of regression to the mean working in the 49ers favor, including a (theoretical) return to health, a mediocre division with a lot of question marks, and per DVOA, the league’s single easiest schedule featuring the Saints, Jags, Falcons, Giants, Panthers, Browns, Titans, Colts, and Bears. Read off those nine (nine!) teams again and tell me that Shanny isn’t getting into the playoffs this year. It’s not a perfect team by any stretch, and injuries sometimes don’t regress so much as cause more injuries, but Purdy/Kittle/McCaffrey are back, they paid Jauan Jennings, and the defense should be good enough. They’re the biggest risers to kick off the season, and a good reminder that sometimes schedule matters more than just about anything else.
8. Washington Commanders: 77.33, 7.63 – The Commanders paid Terry McLaurin, which should keep their offense humming and Jayden Daniels happy, but they’re surprisingly thin after that, especially if Deebo Samuel is as washed as he’s looked this preseason. The Commanders have a lot of running backs and Laremy Tunsil, and good enough defense, but their preseason Super Bowl odds seem low to me (+2000, worse than the Packers, tied with the Rams and Bengals) which drags them a bit.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: 74.34, 10.59 – The Bengals’ offense is awesome, and no one doubts this. It also sucks up a LOT of cap space as all of those stars are not cheap, leaving the defense pretty terrible. How terrible was the defense last year? The Bengals scored 25+ in 11 games last season and went 5-6 in those games. They did manage to keep Trey Hendrickson around for one more year, but their other major additions to the defense are former Packers TJ Slaton and Oren Burks, and rookie Shemar Stewart. They will instead rely on a coordinator change to boost the underfunded side of the ball, having moved on from Lou Anarumo to former Notre Dame defensive coordinator (and former Bengals linebackers coach) Al Golden. If the Bengals can get a Joe Barry to Jeff Hafley style bounce, they will be one of the league’s elite. If not…
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 73.17, -3.85 – The Bucs were my second-favorite team to watch last year thanks to Baker Mayfield’s passing attack with future Hall of Famer Mike Evans and excellent slot machine Chris Godwin, plus an underrated rushing attack led by Bucky Irving. They may not quite be the Bengals, but they can score. Unfortunately, they’re getting long in the tooth on defense, and so they can run into trouble against even average offenses. All of that said, Tampa is the perfect example of why it will be so hard for the NFC North teams to earn playoff spots this season. While that entire division plays top seven difficult schedules, the Bucs sit in the South with the 26th hardest schedule, thanks to games against the Jets, Seahawks, Patriots, and Dolphins plus two each against Carolina and New Orleans. In the South, being good at only half the game of football is likely plenty good enough.
11. Denver Broncos: 73.12, 2.36 – The Broncos remind me of the Vikings in that they’re both loaded on offense and defense (Minnesota more on offense, Denver more on defense, but it’s close) except for two questionable young quarterbacks. They both also play in tough divisions, with at least the Chargers and Chiefs figuring to be pretty good. Where Denver has an advantage is the knowledge that Bo Nix is at least not completely terrible, whereas JJ McCarthy is, charitably, a controversial prospect coming off a major injury. That said, there’s also a good chance that Bo lands the Broncos in mediocre quarterback purgatory rather than accelerating them into the ranks of the elite, whereas the Vikings clearly know when that becomes a danger, and not to fall in love with Sam Darnold. Denver is good, but if Bo tops out as average, they have a pretty tight ceiling.
12. Minnesota Vikings: 73.08, -12.89 – Brian Flores is a defensive wizard, Justin Jefferson is one of the three best receivers in football, and this team won 14 games last year. They also have a brand new, VERY unproven quarterback and an insanely lucky record in one-score games last year. The Vikings took a big tumble at least partially due to that one-score regression and for the quarterback switch, but they also face the fourth toughest schedule in the league, and Jordan Addison is suspended for a few games. They are almost certain to fall outside of the playoffs unless they happen to hit on McCarthy — though given Darnold’s success and Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly offense, I wouldn’t completely discount it. Teams with young quarterbacks are the most unpredictable, because they fail 80% of the time and surprise 20%. If the Vikings can get the surprise, the rest of the team will lend outstanding support. But the odds are obviously against.
13. Los Angeles Rams: 72.68, 5.66 – The biggest question with the Rams is whether or not they can coax one more year from Matthew Stafford and his bad back. They brought in Jimmy Garoppolo should worst come to worst, but Jimmy will only get you so far. Still, the Rams have done an admirable job reloading on the fly, drafting extremely well, and creating a solid base for whatever does follow the Stafford era. They almost knocked off the Eagles last year, and they’re still pretty loaded if the old man can stay upright. Oh, and Davante Adams!
14. Los Angeles Chargers: 69.93, -7.09 – Team Harbaugh 2 is, like all Jim Harbaugh teams, built on defense, running, and well-timed play-action passing. Along those lines they drafted Omarion Hampton, who has beaten out Najee Harris as the starting running back, and they’ve brought back Keenan Allen to help out dynamic slot receiver Ladd McConkey. They will likely be fundamentally sound and won’t beat themselves, but they’re in a tough division, and FTN project their defense (which is pretty old and shed some talent in the offseason) to crash pretty hard. If the Chargers are forced to compensate for a lackluster defense by scoring more points, that is not Jim’s strong suit.
15. Houston Texans: 69.66, -6.53. Houston can play defense and they play in an awful division, which is a good place to start. Unfortunately, on offense, CJ Stroud suffered a major sophomore slump last season and now stands as a major question mark going forward. However, I’m pretty confident in a bounce back for two major reasons. Stroud missed Tank Dell, who suffered a catastrophic injury, for a big chunk of last season while Nico Collins also missed significant time. Dell is still out, but rookie Jayden Higgins will be joining Collins to form one of the biggest receiving duos in the league, while the solid Christian Kirk runs the slot. If everyone can stay healthy, that will help a lot. The other is the departure of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who ran one of the most conservative and worst offenses in football. Is new hire Nick Caley better? No idea, but odds are he is not worse.
16. Arizona Cardinals: 66.55, 4.19 – The Cardinals boast a top ten defense, but they’ve mostly been held back by some offensive weirdness. The seemingly “can’t miss” prospect that was Marvin Harrison Jr. has had trouble hanging onto balls, while outstanding tight end Trey McBride caught everything…except touchdowns. Kyler Murray has been good, but never great, and so it’s never quite all come together as of yet, but some development from Harrison and regression from McBride, and maybe you have something here.
17. Atlanta Falcons: 62.97, 2.01 – It’s Penix time in Atlanta, where the young quarterback will be able to lean on Bijan Robinson and Drake London to ease the transition, and they play a super easy schedule. They are also very boring so let’s move on.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: 62.16, -1.8 – Those of you who have read my stuff know what I think of Aaron Rodgers the man, however Aaron Rodgers the quarterback was a great player for the Packers. Even though he’s been a dysfunctional mess in his post-Packer career and looks like a desiccated old man version of himself now, there’s still talent in there. Aaron was in charge when he was a Jet. He was overpaid, he brought his friends along, and he got various coaches fired. Now, with the Steelers, none of the above is true, and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to boss around Mike Tomlin, who excels in exceeding expectations and in getting the most out of huge weirdos. I think Aaron is probably washed up. If this doesn’t work, with Tomlin and DK Metcalf, he 100% is.
19. Chicago Bears: 61.70, 11.08 – The Bears never seem to get it quite right. They will, occasionally, land good coaches or good individual players, but they always screw up a key ingredient that mucks up the stew. When I was a kid and went to summer camp one meal was always “pot luck soup” where everyone brought a can of soup and dumped them all into the pot, and 10% of the kids would bring a cream soup to add to the chicken/broth and tomato soups, and it was gross. And that’s the Bears. Their draft was weird, they have no left tackle to block for their second consecutive sack-prone quarterback, and they kick off the season against Brian Flores and his insane blitz packages. If you were developing a plan to get Tyson Bagent reps, well, you could do worse. I do like Ben Johnson, and maybe he can make a silk purse out of this pile of pig offal.
20. Seattle Seahawks: 61.29, .09 – The Seahawks were fun last year with Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, and now they have…other people. The big question is whether Sam Darnold can replace Geno and Tory Horton (He’s good! Trust me!) can replace Metcalf, AND they can get lucky again against a tough schedule. I mean, it’s possible.
21. Miami Dolphins: 58.32, 4.69 – Stop mixing Tua with deep threats! Knock it off! Tua is a mediocre quarterback who belongs in a Shanahan-style system checking down to some proto-Deebo, and not throwing bombs to TYREEK HILL. Rarely has a mismatch of quarterback talent and receiving talent persisted this long, and it’s really unfortunately for all involved.
22. Indianapolis Colts: 55.93, .73 – Who’s ready for some DANIEL JONES? Honestly, ship Richardson to the Dolphins and let him huck Alec Pierce balls to two guys instead of one. I guess if you’re going to tank, you may as well tank with Daniel Jones.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: 55.02, 8.94 – Many are high on Jacksonville as they get to play the Colts several times, and the Titans, and people still believe in Trevor Lawrence. And hey, they may have theoretically better coaching this year, and Brian Thomas rules, so maybe? If you were going to pick a team to shoot up charts, they make some sense, I get it. On the other hand, the ownership group seems more invested in wrestling?
24. Dallas Cowboys: 53.90, 6.51 – LOL. LMAO. Also, thanks!
25. Las Vegas Raiders: 51.57, 7.16 – Amari Cooper retired today, which puts a dent in what was already a shallow (and small) receiving corps, but I kind of dig the Geno fit with the Raiders? Brock Bowers is completely awesome, you can always check down to Jeanty, and I actually kind of liked Thornton and Bech coming out? They’re a dumb franchise that needs to tank for a real QB, but Geno is fun, and Geno makes things fun. Being Fun is better than being the Colts.
26. New England Patriots: 50.10, 9.69 – Is Drake Maye actually good? He looked good last year on a regular basis, but he looked good in that big-armed way that like, Trevor Lawrence sometimes looks good? And maybe they’re both good, but there’s a lot to overcome on this team, which still is in need of a receiver overhaul and a work in progress on defense.
27. New York Jets: 50.02, -1.72 – Justin Fields is fun too, but he’s mostly here to make Caleb Williams look like he has excellent pocket presence by comparison. The Aaron Rodgers era is going to linger for a while here.
28. New York Giants: 47.73, 4.67 – If any bottom ten team is going to surprise and drastically improve, you may be tempted to go with the Titans and Cam Ward, but I’ll take the Giants and Jaxson Dart. I like Ward fine, and I think Tennessee made some sharp offseason moves to provide Ward with at least a semblance of offensive firepower, but the Titans were 30th in defensive DVOA last year and they were basically a mess across the board. Dart, on the other hand, was actually college football’s best passer last year (about 36% better than average while Ward was about 23% above average, fifth overall), and he improved steadily throughout his career at Ole Miss. More importantly, Dart walks into an offense featuring Malik Nabers, and supported by a defense that ranked 20th last season, which is at least decent.
The Giants do have one massive problem, however, in that they play the NFL’s most difficult schedule, so even if they’re frisky, it may be tough to tell.
29. New Orleans Saints: 46.53, -2.56 – When the season is all over, I’ll wager that this is the worst team in the league. The Saints were given a gift when Derek Carr decided to retire, but the financial rot dragging on the Saints is too deep to be repaired in a single offseason. Their salary cap malfeasance over the last decade plus hasn’t just cost the team the ability to sign helpful free agents or to extend their own promising young players. It’s also destroyed their basic depth to the extent that they cannot recover without almost total roster turnover. This is a Ship of Theseus situation, and to remain the Saints they need to replace every board.
30. Cleveland Browns: 45.55, 8.77 – Maybe you should sign a few additional quarterbacks and/or sexual offenders. That would probably do the trick.
31. Tennessee Titans: 45.06, 5.89 – While I like Jaxson Dart more than most, I still like Cam Ward, and I applaud the Titans for nabbing Kevin Zeitler from the Lions as a stop-gap to prevent Ward from getting killed. Plus, they added veteran Tyler Lockett to the receiving corps, a nice compliment to the already effective Calvin Ridley. They’re still a mess on defense and they have a long way to go, but they play in a terrible division, have an easy schedule, and might be capable of surprising some people.
32. Carolina Panthers: 42.13, 5.03 – Bryce Young finished strong last year, and maybe he can build off of that performance with the addition of Tet McMillan, the consensus best receiver in the draft. But Bryce is also still a tricky quarterback prospect as he’s extremely undersized with limited physical tools, and sometimes a strong finish can be more deceiving than anything. The Panthers also need a severe talent infusion across the board as they finished last in defensive DVOA in 2024. Step one though, is to decide whether Bryce is the man, or not. If he’s not the answer at quarterback, it doesn’t matter much what you do on defense.
