Nate Oats and Alabama have officially become a staple of the Sweet Sixteen, as the 4th-seeded Crimson Tide has returned to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the fourth year in a row and the fifth time in six years. That’s the kind of thing Tom Izzo can say he’s accomplished. Rick Pitino. Bill Self. A football Blue Blood like Alabama isn’t supposed to become a top ten program in basketball as well, but that’s where Oats has brought the Tide to during the 2020s. I’ve been covering this
team for RBR since 2013 (with one off-year last season) and let me tell you all – I never thought I’d be typing up stuff like, “Alabama attempts to make its third straight Elite Eight tonight”. Those words in that order? Never in my wildest dreams. A one-off Final Four? Sure, that happens, even Georgia and South Carolina have a Final Four appearance in their history (not everyone can say that though, right Tennessee?). But sustained excellence like this? It’s been a blessing.
If you detected an air of finality in that opening paragraph, you aren’t far off. The last game the Tide takes the court for in this tournament will be the last one I provide a preview for in my career. It’s been an honor to write for RBR over the years, and it was a privilege to jump back in for one last ride this season, though the circumstances surrounding it weren’t ideal. I’m super grateful for all of it – the support of the RBR community, the turning of the Tide when Nate Oats arrived, etc. I don’t take it for granted.
You might be thinking, “why’s he getting all nostalgic on us right now?”. Well, it’s because the likelihood of this being my last article here is better than not. In all of these magical March runs Oats has led the Tide on, this Michigan team that Alabama will face tonight is on the 2024 UConn and 2025 Duke tier. They are national championship good. It’ll take Alabama’s absolute best to pull this one out tonight. So, consider the reflective nature of my post as a bit of an emotional hedge.
Because by God, that’s the last sappy, defeatist thing you’ll read from me.
How to Watch
What: #4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (25-9, 13-5 SEC) vs #1 seed Michigan Wolverines (33-3, 19-1 B1G)
Where: United Center, Chicago, IL
When: 6:35 PM CDT
TV: TBS
Line: Michigan -9.5 (According to FanDuel, odds subject to change)
Year 2 for Dusty May has been a historic one for the Wolverines, as this may be the best Michigan team since the Fab Five took up residence in Ann Arbor. In this ridiculous Wild West era of unfettered free agency via NIL and the Transfer Portal, Michigan athletics has cashed in big time. It helps when one of the richest men in human history decides to bankroll the entire Athletics Department just to make his Michigan alumnus wife happy. This year’s Wolverine team is just a rental superteam – six of their rotation players were bought recruited away from other high major programs, including former Alabama guard Nimari Burnett.
But the most impactful transfer for Michigan came from the mid-major ranks – former UAB point forward, Yaxel Lendeborg. The Big Ten Player of the Year turned down the NBA last offseason to join the Wolverines. The first team All American averaged 14.7 PPG on 51.5%/36.1%/83.0% with 6.9 RPG and 3.2 APG. His ability to handle the ball, rebound, defend, and be a threat from all areas of the floor is something that will have him playing at the next level for a long time. He’s joined in the frontcourt by 7’3 big man Aday Mara from UCLA. Mara is a really skilled big man, with a nice bag of post moves and an ability to dish out passes from the paint. He also boasts a 16.9% REB% and is top five in the country with a ridiculous 12.7% BLK%.
In the backcourt, former North Carolina guard Elliot Cadeau runs the show at the point. He’s a streaky scorer (10.1 PPG on 41.5%/37.5%/71.3%), but an elite playmaker (33.3% AST%). Former Buckeye Roddy Gayle Jr. joins true freshman Trey McKinney and the aforementioned Nimari Burnett. All three are strong defensively, and Burnett in particular has been a great 3&D player (39.5% 3P%) for the Wolverines in his sixth season of college ball.
Three Keys to Victory
- Spread Them Out and Get Good Looks. This year’s Michigan team is good at pretty much everything across the board, but their calling card is their two-point defense, which is second best in the country behind only Arizona. Makes sense when you have big studs like Yaxel and Morez Johnson playing the 3/4 spots while Mara anchors the defense at the five. I expect Nate Oats to get creative tonight. Look for the Tide to try to get Michigan’s bigs out of the paint by playing four- and five-out and working for switches in PnR situations. Aden Sherrill needs to make 3-4 three-pointers tonight. That will force Mara out of the paint and open things up for Alabama’s elite guards to attack the basket with or without the ball.
- Sag on Defense and Load up the Paint. The Wolverines are actually a damn good shooting team (36th in the country with 36.6% 3P%), but they can be inconsistent at times. Honestly, all of their shooters are pretty streaky. Regardless, it’s kind of a pick your own poison situation defending this team, and I’d much rather let them take perimeter shots than work the ball into the paint, where they will have a significant advantage in size against the Tide. Expect a lot of sagging on defense and drop coverage on PnRs. If Mara gets the ball in the low post, I’m hoping to see some late doubles from the guards. Alabama approached UConn this way back in the 2024 Final Four, and it honestly worked rather well, even with Stephon Castle – the guard Oats identified as the weak shooter – hitting a bunch of shots early on. Roddy Gayle will be the designated “let him shoot” guy tonight.
- Create Extra Possessions. Whether it be by way of turnovers or offensive boards, Alabama needs to get more shot attempts up than Michigan in this one. The Tide had 18 offensive rebounds to go along with 8 steals and 5 blocks against Texas Tech in the second round, which allowed Alabama to attempt 8 more shots than the Red Raiders. Now, the ridiculous three-point shooting meant the Tide was going to win that game regardless, but that’s exactly the kind of effort Nate Oats’ squad will need against Michigan.
Look, the Wolverines are a 9.5-point favorite for a reason. I already weaved my goodbye post into the intro of this article. But I have to be honest – I’m starting to get some vibes from this team that they could do something special. Listen to some of these quotes:
Sidenote – Houston Mallette has a future leading folks in some capacity.
It’s called March Madness for a reason, y’all. Iowa is in the Elite Eight. If Alabama can play like they did against Texas Tech last weekend, they absolutely can knock off the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines and advance to the Elite Eight once again. It’ll take everything the Tide has got, but Nate Oats has been really good at game planning in March, the team is obviously locked in, and with the guard play that Alabama boasts, there’s no reason why the 2026 Tide can’t keep playing into April.
Hope for the Best. And hopefully I’ll be writing at least one more of these breakdowns.
