The starting pitching dominoes are finally starting to fall. After Michael King returned to the Padres last night, the Orioles made a big move that set the trade market for starting pitchers. They traded for Shane Baz of the Rays in a deal that sent five pieces to Tampa, including highly touted outfielder Slater De Brun.
The Baz trade tells us a lot about the MacKenzie Gore market because they are pretty similar. Both Baz and Gore are former big time prospects who have shown big time flashes in the MLB, but have not put it all together yet. Gore has been the better and healthier pitcher of the two, posting a lower ERA while throwing nearly double the innings.
Last season, Baz posted a 4.87 ERA in 166.1 innings. It was also the first time he had thrown 100 innings in an MLB season. With that in mind, why would the O’s want to part with so much to get him? Well, Baz still has a very high ceiling and can be nasty when he is on his game. His fastball averages 97 MPH and he struck out almost 25% of hitters.
At just 26 years old, Baz still has the ability to become a number two starter. Gore and Baz have a similar ceiling, but Gore is more proven. However, Baz has an additional year of team control compared to Gore, which adds value. Overall, I would expect Gore to have more value, but not by all that much.
With that in mind, let’s dive into what the Rays actually got back. With five pieces in the deal, it was certainly a quantity over quality deal. None of the guys they got back are top 100 prospects, but a couple have top 100 upside.
Slater De Brun is probably the biggest piece in the deal. While he was picked 37th overall, he signed an overslot deal that paid him $4 million. De Brun is a speedy outfielder, who has a leadoff hitter skillset. He is not the biggest guy, but he has decent power as well.
Caden Bodine is another big name in the package. He was the 30th pick in the draft, but did not get paid as much as De Brun. Bodine is a catching prospect with elite contact skills and framing ability. There are questions about his power and overall athleticism, but he is a safe prospect.
The third prospect in the deal is pitcher Michael Forret. He had a great season in High-A and Double-A, posting a 1.58 ERA while striking out 91 batters in 74 innings. Forret has a deep pitch mix and a mid 90’s fastball. If he continues to roll, he could be a top 100 prospect.
The Rays also got Austin Overn and a competitive balance pick. Overall, this is a strong haul and should set the floor for a MacKenzie Gore trade. I would like to see Paul Toboni get a true headliner rather than take this quantity first approach. However, we now know what the starting pitching market looks like.
With all of this movement starting to come and a GM now in place underneath Toboni, I would not be surprised to see a Gore trade in the next few days. It is something that should happen. Gore is a good pitcher with big upside, but he only has two years of control and is not an ace.
If the Nats can cash in on Gore, it would not only help them in the long term, I think it could help them as soon as 2027 if they get the deal right. It would be a bit of a disappointment if they held onto Gore given the market. Hopefully Toboni has something up his sleeve here now that the dominoes are really starting to fall.
