How does Coach Wade feel about starting freshmen?
Historically, Coach Wade has had no problem recruiting and starting freshmen. If you consider his two seasons at McNeese State outliers due to recruiting restrictions and look at his five seasons at LSU,
he had at least one freshman starting fulltime every season.
- ’17-’18 Tremont Waters, guard, started 32 games, team 18-15 / 8-10, drafted 2nd round by Boston Celtics – currently international
- ’18-’19 Naz Reid, forward, started 32 games, team 25-5 / 15-2, Minnesota Timberwolves
- ’19-’20 Trendon Watford , forward, started 30 games, team 21-10 / 12-6, Philadelphia 76ers
- ’20-’21 Cameron Thomas, guard, started 29 games, team 19-10 / 11-6, Brooklyn Nets
- ’21-’22 Brandon Murray, guard, started 32 games, team 22-11 / 9-9, not drafted
- ’21-’22 Efton Reid, center, started 34 games, team 22-11 / 9-9, not drafted
Will Matt Able be the first fulltime freshman starter of the Will Wade era at NC State?
Matt is a high-quality player. 247 ranks him 30th, ESPN ranks him 31st, Rivals ranks him 25th, and On3 has him at 21st. 247 calls him a 5-star player in the composite ranking. At Sagemont Prep he averaged 20.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.9 apg, and 2.1 spg while shooting 43% / 40% (207 attempts)/ 81%.
He is NC State’s 4th highest ranked high school recruit (whoops, just got nudged to 5th thanks to Cole Cloer) in the internet era, trailing only Dennis Smith, Jr, CJ Leslie, and Rodney Purvis. Of those three, DSJ was the only one that started from day one and every game of his (single-season) Wolfpack career. But there’s a new Gangster in town.
What position is he going to play?
In his introductory interview at NC State, he surprised many of us when he introduced himself as a point guard. He’s clearly got his eyes on the NBA, and at 6’6” he would be above average height for a point guard. But …
Could he start for the Wolfpack at point guard this season? – Nope! Senior Tre Holloman has that wrapped up. College Hoops Today recently identified Tre as one of the “10 Glue Guys to monitor during the ‘25-‘26 basketball season” and described him as “ This veteran point guard knows what he’s good at and is good at what he knows.” During the ACC Tipoff, Coach Wade said that Holloman “is just an absolute pitbull.” However, Holloman has also been very effective playing off the ball in his career – and he shoots better (he shot 42.5% as a soph – and we’ve been told he has averaged 41% this summer in offseason practices), so the staff intends to make sure he gets time as a secondary ball handler. Quadir Copeland (potential ACC Sixth Man of the Year?) will be the first sub. If Able truly does have PG skills, he might show up there on occasion but between the two very talented seniors, Holloman and Copeland, there shouldn’t be many (if any) available minutes.
Everything you read about Able screams ‘SHOOTER.’ His senior season he averaged 16 shots a game, 7.6 of them 3PT. He only averaged 4.2 free throws. That leads you to believe that he took a lot of outside and mid-range shots. He scored 20+ points in 16 of 27 games, including one game of 30 and a season high of 39. Not only did he TAKE a lot of shots, he MADE a lot of shots.
Is he a shooting guard or will he play the wing for the Wolfpack? – Yes! The roles are almost interchangeable, but stereotypically the wing is the more versatile of the two, is expected to rebound, and defends the best guard. The shooting guard is ideally the better 3PT shooter. (hence the name) In a perfect world, you’d have multiple big, interchangeable guards. The Pack just might have that this season.
Could he start at wing? – Nope! Redshirt-Junior Terrance Arceneaux (6’6”) should have that one. He is an explosive athlete, he is one of the best defenders in the country, and he shot 33.7% from 3PT on 83 attempts last season. He shot 50.7% from 2PT. Many analysts expect his offensive game to expand during his junior season now that he’s more than a season removed from his achilles injury. He averaged 2.7 rpg last season and had 7 games with 5+, including a season high of 9. Like at point guard, Quadir Copeland (6’6”)(potential ACC Sixth Man of the Year?) should be the second option at the wing. Historically Quadir’s been a poor outside shooter (last season 15.4%, career 20.3% from 3PT), but he handles the ball and passes better than Arceneaux, he is a very good defender, and he rebounds well. (weird coincidence, last season Copeland also had 7 games with 5+ rebounds including a season high of 9) ‘Q’ is such a positive asset, he needs to be on the court. This team has a great deal of flexibility, and one ‘big lineup’ option that is talked about a lot is playing Williams at the wing. There is no question he can play the position, however, the Pack has more quality players in the back court than the front court, so it may not make sense to do it regularly. TBD. With his size, Able could also sub in at wing, or push McNeil there, if they can defend well enough. Coach Wade has options, but Arceneaux and Copeland should dominate the minutes at the wing.
That leaves shooting guard – If Able is going to start games this season, this is his spot. But Paul McNeil is going to have an opinion about that. And, as noted above, Coach Wade has said Tre Holloman will definitely get time there. Alyn Breed, who was just cleared for full practice, is in the mix as well once he is back in playing shape – but that could take a while. Again, nice to have options.
On paper, McNeil and Able are very similar players. Both are 6’5” (GoPack says Able has grown to 6’6” – [excellent S&C program – or taller shoes]) with similar builds, both perimeter players, both 40% high volume 3PT shooters in HS. McNeil’s other HS senior year stats were better in every category than Able’s, but the level of competition at Able’s Sagemont Prep was likely tougher than McNeil’s Richmond HS. Paul played in 24 Wolfpack games last season and shot 0% from 3PT in 16 of them. (either 0 3PT-A or 0 3PT-M) He played better late in the season, and in the last six games averaged better than 15 minutes – but still was 0-fer from 3PT in three of those six games. McNeil’s defense was a little spotty, but the new coaching staff will help with that.
- Rivals Senior National Recruiting Analyst Jamie Shaw recently visited practice and reported that McNeil’s shooting was “uncanny”, he “shot the cover off the ball”, and only missed two shots the entire practice.
- Supporting that statement, in the recent media day Coach Wade said McNeil shot 46% from 3PT during the summer sessions.
- During the ACC Tipoff, Coach Wade described Paul as “an elite, elite shooter”, one of the best shooters I have ever had on a team.
Scenario 1: Able starts – When the lights come on, if McNeil is the same player as last season (inconsistent shot, weak defender) and Able is shooting 3PT shots in the high 30% (or better) range and defending well from day 1, he could get the start. That’s two very large IF’s. I think this would be a surprising turn of events. Experience is invaluable currency in college.
Scenario 2: McNeil starts – Even with all of his off games from the arc, McNeil still shot a respectable 35.6% from 3PT last season. There is every reason to believe he will get more comfortable and shoot better. Evan Miyakawa projects McNeil to be the second-best offensive performer on the team this season, behind just Williams. (He lists Able 6th) He’s also bulked up noticeably in the weight room during the offseason. Even if Able is shooting well, with McNeil’s one season of experience, he should have the advantage over Able.
But what if Able REALLY IS THAT GOOD?
DREAM SCENARIO!!! If so, the Wolfpack back court rotation will be one of the best in the ACC (…the country?) to go along with likely All-ACC forward, Darrion Williams in the front court. The Pack’s best lineup since … [you decide]. This is not out of the question. Both McNeil and Able are very good players and pushing each other for playing time might bring out the best in both of them. And the guy that starts early in the season, may not be the guy that starts late. And basketball rule #1, “Play the hot hand”, will certainly apply to these two shooters as well as Holloman and Breed. What a fine ‘problem’ to have!
Matt Able’s personal skills coach, Austen Lee believes the transition to the ACC shouldn’t be an issue.
“I think he’s been ready for two years,” Lee said with a laugh. “He’s been training with high level guys for the last few years, and he’s been killing them and being a standout player. Multiple pros that we’ve had come through the gym, he’s dominated them. He’s been ready.”
Best ‘preseason goggles’ guess is …
McNeil will start the season at shooting guard and Able will come off the bench behind him but will get plenty of minutes. But don’t be surprised if, before January, Able gets the opportunity to start a game and prove he belongs there.
Matt will have a decision to make after the season. Most sources – before having seen him play a single college game – expect him to go pro, and some predict he’ll go in the first round. (If so, great for recruiting! It’s been a while) Both McNeil and Arceneaux will have remaining eligibility if they choose to stick around, and Cole Cloer is coming, so there could be stiff competition returning at the 2 & 3. Point guard could be an option if he wants to return and work on that. Nice ‘problems’ to have, Coach.
