Trea Turner will open the season at shortstop. Don Mattingly is returning as manager. Alec Bohm could be back at third base, Luis Arraez could also return. The majority of a bullpen nobody liked is set to return, no starting pitchers are getting dealt to help in other areas, and it sounds like Brandon Marsh isn’t going anywhere, either.
All these nuggets from Dave Dombrowski’s press conference on Thursday may have you feeling perplexed, bewildered, confused and perhaps a bit frustrated.
To be fair
to Dombrowski and Mattingly, they were never going to come out and say, “Get ready for an off-season of big changes.” You never make promises you don’t know if you can keep, and with the lockout looming and so much roster inflexibility, the level of change desired by most may not be realistic. We’ve been saddled with an underachieving roster that appears headed in the wrong direction, and we want to know that the 70-year-old team president is seeing what we’re seeing.
Based on his statements Thursday, it seems clearer to Dombrowski there are more issues to deal with than in past seasons, but he’s not exactly matching our energy. Which, to be honest, is probably a good thing. Were he to signal that players under contract for 2027 weren’t in the team’s plans for next year, he’d have a hard time getting any kind of trade value for them.
But it does feel like the future Hall of Fame executive is not keeping up. Organizations like the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians and the NL champion Milwaukee Brewers, are doing laps around the Phils. It’s telling that, after their fifth straight postseason appearance, the team fired their longtime hitting coach Kevin Long, and their infield coach Bobby Dickerson, because they couldn’t get this team of stubborn veterans to play better. The roster, coaching staff, farm system, heck the entire organization, feels stuck in neutral compared to these small-market, low-budget teams that feature an array of good, young, athletic talent with homegrown superstars at the big league level and more on the way.
The Phillies’ farm system is not producing quality baseball players in the numbers it should, and they’re still trying to figure out why.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have quietly been one of baseball’s best teams for the last decade. Since 2018, Milwaukee has missed the postseason just once in nine seasons, when the 2022 Brewers finished in 2nd place with an 86-76 record and just barely missed out on the third wild card that the Phillies used to sneak into the tournament.
Finally, on their 8th try in 9 seasons, they’ve reached the World Series. They lost a heartbreaker of a seven-game series in the ‘18 NLCS to the Dodgers, lost in the wild card round four times, fell in the NLDS in ‘21, and were swept by the very same Dodgers they dispatched in four games last night.
It was very cool to see the Brewers avenge their sweep at the hands of Los Angeles last season, taking out the team that swept them a season ago as they sought their third straight title. It happened because the players displayed a resiliency that the Philadelphia nine has been lacking in recent seasons.
The Brewers moved past their failures. The Phillies are still struggling to do so.
In 2023, the Phils looked well on their way to following up their magical run to the World Series the season before after blitzing the Diamondbacks 10-0 in Game 2. We all know what happened next. Arizona adjusted their approach to the Phillies’ lineup, they didn’t adjust back, and they choked away Games 6 and 7 in the NLCS.
The Phillies are 4-12 in 16 playoff games since that fateful Game 3 in Arizona. Last year’s roster was probably the best of the bunch. The 2025 Phillies were a team playing extremely well heading into October, with no real weaknesses anywhere. Their four-game loss was excruciatingly close, and I believe if they’d advanced past the Dodgers, they would have won it all.
But they didn’t, and the specter of all those failures has haunted every player since. It was one of the reasons most fans wanted to see big changes this off-season. Sure, there were questions about the physical abilities of the aging roster but, just as importantly, something needed to be done to snap the collective psychosis of a group that routinely tightened up and succumbed to expectations every year.
The Brewers, meanwhile, have been making big changes to their roster every year. Much of that is due to a limited payroll, so it has been forced upon them in a way it has not Dombrowski and the Phils. It would be understandable if, after seven straight failures, they felt as if there was a steel ceiling above them that they would never break through.
Entering the 2026 playoffs, the Brewers postseason record since ‘23 was 4-10. But with new players on the roster every year, a culture of failure was never really able to set in.
Compare the 2023 Milwaukee squad to the one that is currently rampaging through the league right now.
2023 Brewers:
C – William Contreras
1B – Rowdy Tellez
2B – Brice Turang
SS – Willy Adames
3B – Brian Anderson
LF – Christian Yelich
CF – Joey Wiemer
RF – Tyrone Taylor, Sal Frelick, Mark Canha
DH – Jesse Winker
SP – Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Colin Rea, Wade Miley, Adrian Houser
RP – Devin Williams, Bryse Wilson, Joel Payamps, Hoby Miler, Elvis Peguero
2026 Brewers:
C – William Contreras
1B – Jake Bauers, Andrew Vaughn
2B – Brice Turang
SS – Cooper Pratt (21), Joey Ortiz
3B – David Hamilton
LF – Jackson Chourio
CF – Garrett Mitchell
RF – Sal Frelick, Luis Lara
DH – Christian Yelich
SP – Jacob Misiorowski, Shane Drohan, Kyle Harrison, Robert Gasser, Logan Henderson, Brandon Sproat
RP – Trevor Megill, Chad Patrick, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, Grant Anderson
William Contreras, Brice Turang, and Christian Yelich are the mainstays. Sure, throw Sal Frelick into the mix if you want, too. The entire pitching staff is different, as is the majority of the position player grouping.
This is just in a span of four seasons. The Phillies, meanwhile, have featured much of the same roster during that stretch.
I can’t say for sure that player turnover has helped Milwaukee move past their postseason failures, but it helps to shake up the echo chamber. It’s also much easier to do when no one is signed for more than three seasons at a time. The Phils’ collection of longer contracts limits their flexibility, especially with their highest-priced players also possessing the ability to block trades.
It also helps to have great young players emerge to push the team forward.
The Phillies received an acceptable contribution from center fielder Justin Crawford, a better return (especially at the end) from Andrew Painter, and a surprising one from reliever Alex McFarlane. But that was it. The rest of the roster was returning veterans or castoffs from other organizations brought in on one-year deals. The younger vets that were here — Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Alec Bohm — never materialized into being dependable, consistent players.
Milwaukee, however, saw their home grown stars provide them with elite production this year. Turang led the team in WAR (7.3), while Chourio (4.9) and former first round pick Garrett Mitchell (3.4) were right behind him 2nd and 3rd among position players. Jacob Misiorowski (6.5 WAR) just might be a unanimous selection for NL Cy Young Award this season. These were all positive additions from the farm system, and they added pieces through some smart deals, like Contreras coming from Atlanta as part of a three-team deal and signing Jake Bauers to a one-year, $2.7 million deal this off-season.
Milwaukee also made some dangerous decisions on elite arms that only came as a result of their payroll limitations.
They traded Corbin Burnes at the start of the 2024 season, the final year of his contract. They sent Freddy Peralta to the Mets prior to this season. They dealt their elite closer Devin Williams to the Yankees ahead of the 2025 season and sent All Star closer Josh Hader to the Padres in August of 2022. If the Brewers had the kind of payroll flexibility the Phillies do, perhaps some of those deals don’t happen. They did that once before with former MVP Christian Yelich, who inked a nine-year, $215 million deal before 2020. Six years later, they’re nearing the end of that contract and are struggling to get to the finish line.
Of course, Milwaukee is at the forefront on all of the analytics and data that is available. Eno Sarris of The Athletic outlined all the different ways the Brewers are working to get an edge in these areas. Meanwhile, the Phillies still can’t figure out how to align hitting information coming from their data analysts to the coaches up and down the organization. Long was fired this week in large part because there was a disconnect in the wiring somewhere. The Phillies hope to hire a new hitting coach that will be able to teach and implement this information to hitters at the big league level.
The Brewers are 10 years ahead of the Phils in this department. Perhaps that’s why they had 8 players with at least 250 plate appearances generate an OPS+ over 100. The Phillies had 2.
At his end-of-season news conference on Thursday, it sounded like Dave Dombrowski was a bit more aware of the state of the team’s roster, but didn’t display any real sense of alarm or urgency. He’s right when he says their starting rotation remains a strength and will provide the team with a high floor. He hopes to get the same kind of boost from Aidan Miller and Bryan Rincon that Milwaukee is getting from their home-grown talent.
We remain hopeful he’ll reach into a bag of tricks and find creative solutions to fixing a bad lineup and a bullpen that needs more trustworthy arms. And he’ll have to do it all while working around a work stoppage.
Make no mistake, the Phillies can’t become the Brewers, or the Rays, or any other franchise like them in just one off-season. But they can start by, in private at least, recognizing the severity of the situation.
