For the first time since 2022, the Ohio State men’s basketball team is back in the NCAA Tournament. Jake Diebler’s second Buckeye team finished the regular season on a three-game winning streak, including a win over No. 8 Purdue and a 13-point win over Indiana on Senior Day. The Buckeyes made it four straight victories by holding off Iowa, 72-69 in the Big Ten Tournament, but were bounced the next day in the quarterfinal by top-seeded, regular season champion Michigan.
Their 21-12 record earned them
an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and for the first time since 2014, the Buckeyes are the very first game of the tournament — they’ll take on 9-seed TCU on Thursday afternoon at 12:15 p.m. ET. Now technically, the first game of the NCAA is Tuesday night, when the UMBC Retrievers take on the Howard Bison in the 16-16 play-in game at the University of Dayton. However, for our purposes we’re referring to the first full round of games, starting Thursday afternoon.
Being the first game on Thursday afternoon is a high-risk, high-reward assignment for fans. If your team wins, you get to watch the next 10 hours of basketball on Thursday plus all of Friday stress-free, because you know your team is playing in the second round. If your team loses, it means they were booted from the tournament before most teams even played, and you have to marinate in the disappointment of that loss for the next 10-ish hours while you watch all of the other games.
That led me to the big question: Is it good to be the first game of the NCAA Tournament?
I looked back at the last 15 NCAA Tournaments (so back to 2010) to see if there were any trends that could potentially apply to this year’s Ohio State team, as the Buckeyes look to start a deep run in the tournament, like John Mobley Jr. promised just a few weeks ago.
Here’s what I found. Take this with a grain of salt, or consider it gospel and a guarantee that Ohio State will win Thursday – whatever makes you happiest.
Big Ten teams are 5-1 in the first game of the NCAA Tournament since 2010
Since 2010, Big Ten teams are 5-1 when playing in the first game on Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately, the one loss was Ohio State in 2014, when the 6-seed Buckeyes lost to 11-seed Dayton 60-59 in Buffalo, New York. Big Ten teams are currently on a four-game winning streak playing in the first game, with Michigan State (2024), Maryland (2023), Michigan (2022), and Minnesota (2019) all winning the very first game on Thursday.
Higher-seeded teams are 10-5 in the first game of the NCAA Tournament since 2010
Since 2010, the higher seeded team is 10-5 in the first game on Thursday afternoon. Once again, Ohio State’s loss to Dayton in 2014 was one of the hiccups, as the Buckeyes were a 6-seed while the Flyers were an 11-seed. However, that trend has been moving in the opposite direction the last few years, as the lower-seeded team has won each of the last two years in the first game on Thursday.
Last year, 9-seed Creighton made light work of 8-seed Louisville, beating them by 14 in the very first game of the day Thursday. In 2024, 9-seed Michigan State wiped the floor with 8-seed Mississippi State, holding the Bulldogs to 51 points and winning that game by 18 points.
Big Ten teams that are the higher seed are 2-1 in the first game of the NCAA Tournament since 2010
In the last 15 NCAA Tournaments, Big Ten teams that are the higher seed are 2-1 in the very first game Thursday.
In 2023, it was Maryland’s Jahmir Young hitting three free throws in the final two minutes that clinched a 67-65 win for the 8-seed Terrapins over 9-seed West Virginia.
In 2013, 3-seed Michigan State outscored 14-seed Valparaiso 35-18 in the first half and coasted to a 65-54 first-round win.
The only loss for a Big Ten team that was the higher seed in that very first game to open the tournament was Ohio State against Dayton in 2014.
8-seeds are 1-2 in the first game of the NCAA Tournament since 2010
The past three seasons have actually been the only years in the past 15 seasons where the tournament has kicked off on Thursday with an 8 vs. 9 game.
Maryland’s win over West Virginia in 2023 was the only victory for the 8-seed. In 2024, 8-seed Mississippi State lost to 9-seed Michigan State, and last season 8-seed Louisville lost to 9-seed Creighton.
Of the last 15 NCAA Tournaments, the first game on Thursday has been decided by five or fewer points six times
Just because it’s the first game of the NCAA Tournament doesn’t mean it’s necessarily going to be competitive. Going back to 2010, only six of the 15 games have been decided by five points or fewer. Here are those six nail biters:
- 8-seed Maryland 67, 9-seed West Virginia 65 (2023)
- 7-seed Florida 75, 10-seed Virginia Tech 70 (2021)
- 7-seed Rhode Island 83, 10-seed Oklahoma 78 (2018)
- 5-seed Notre Dame 60, 12-seed Princeton 58 (2017)
- 3-seed Notre Dame 69, 14-seed Northeastern 65 (2015)
- 11-seed Dayton 60, 6-seed Ohio State 59 (2014)
