One of the reasons that the Orioles targeted Zach Eflin at the 2024 trade deadline—beyond his solid track record as a dependable big league arm—was that he came with an additional season of control. He wasn’t due to hit free agency for more than a year, meaning he could help the Orioles through 2025, a crucial season in their perceived competitive window. Unfortunately, that didn’t really pan out.
Eflin was given the Opening Day nod for the O’s in 2025. The team was still waiting on Grayson Rodriguez’s
shoulder to respond to his rehab, and they knew Kyle Bradish wouldn’t be back until late in the campaign due to Tommy John surgery. So, by default, the honor fell to Eflin. That would prove to be the high point in a nightmare season.
On that day, Eflin went six innings and allowed two runs en route to a win over the eventual AL Champion Toronto Blue Jays. While the 13 other starts he made on the season weren’t all stinkers, the veteran struggled to find consistency. His fastball velocity was down a tick, and he was having a hard time missing bats. All the while he was battling injuries.
Eflin’s first IL stint came on April 9. A right lat strain put him on the shelf for a month. He returned on May 11 and made nine straight starts, but the results were poor. In that time he tossed 44 innings, struck out 34, walked 10, and gave up 14 home runs. Over that nine-start stretch he had a 7.16 ERA/6.48 FIP. On June 30 he went back on the IL with lower back discomfort. The Orioles reactivated him a month later, he made two starts, and was then done for the year.
Ultimately, the decision was made that Eflin would need surgery on his back. The pitcher indicated that it had been a nagging concern for him dating back years, and it was time to get it fixed. In mid-August, Eflin underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy surgery. He expected to be ready for spring training.
Where he would end up pitching was a mystery though. The Orioles were back in the market for arms, but expected to be seeking upgrades. Eflin, it seemed, was hoping for a one-year “prove-it” deal to show the league he was worthy of the multi-year commitment he was chasing. In the end, both sides came back together in late December on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027.
The speculation right now indicates the the Orioles may go into the season with a six-man rotation. That would include Eflin, who is looking to build himself back up after throwing just 71.1 big league innings in 2025. Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers are two other prominent arms in the rotation that didn’t pitch full seasons last summer either. Using six starters provides some protection for all of them.
However, the Orioles have been particularly cautious with Eflin this spring. As of this writing, he’s made just one appearance in a Grapefruit League game, tossing two innings on March 5. Maybe he has built himself up more on the back fields or in bullpens, but usually teams want their starters doing more in-game work by this point in camp. For comparison, Bradish and Chris Bassitt both have more than 10 innings under their belt this spring.
That opens the door for an IL stint for Eflin to begin the year. It doesn’t mean he’s hurt, but rather that he’s behind. The team could take advantage of the off days built into the early part of the schedule, put him on the IL for two weeks and not really miss a beat.
Whether he begins the year on the IL or not, the projection systems are not expecting the soon-t0-be-32-year-old to have a full workload:
- ZiPS: 8-6, 102.7 IP, 4.38 ERA, 6.75 K/9, 1.240 WHIP
- BRef: 6-7, 112 IP, 4.36 ERA, 7.70 K/9, 1.232 WHIP
Those numbers don’t stray too far from his career 4.28 ERA or 7.7 K/9. The salary and single year of commitment the Orioles made seem to indicate that they would be fine with that sort of output. They aren’t turning to Eflin as an ace. He needs to be stable and dependable, right alongside Bassitt and Dean Kremer, in the back half of the Orioles rotation. They would probably like to see him throw closer to 140-150 innings though.
What do you think of these projections? Do you think Eflin will largely remain healthy? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section.
