Every year during the Winter Meetings, teams hold the Rule 5 draft, which allows them to select eligible minor leaguers who have not been added to their organizations’ 40-man rosters. With the current labor deal set to expire on December 1 and a work stoppage looming, it is unclear whether the draft will take place as scheduled. In 2021, the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft was postponed indefinitely during the lockout, although the minor league phase proceeded as scheduled. MLB and the union
could agree to hold the major league draft before the current labor deal expires.
The Royals currently have a full 40-man roster, plus eight players on the 60-day Injured List that will need to be activated once the offseason begins. Carlos Estévez, Jonathan India, Craig Kimbrel, Luke Maile, and Josh Rojas will all come off the roster as free agents after the World Series. That will mean a lot of additional roster clearing just to get the roster back down to 40, let alone enough to clear spots to add new players.
Players are eligible after four seasons in the minors if they signed at age 19 or later, or after five seasons if they signed younger than age 19. That means this year, the college draftees from 2023 become eligible, while all signees from 2022 and before are eligible. Selected players must stay on the MLB roster all season or be offered back to their original teams. Teams can protect eligible players by placing them on the 40-man roster by late November.
Teams overwhelmingly select pitchers more than hitters, and if they do choose hitters, it is usually guys who can come off the bench – utility players, backup catchers, and speedsters. The caveat to adding any player to the 40-man roster is that the player would be unable to have contact with the club, participate in spring training, or even play in games if there is a prolonged work stoppage. Assuming there is a Rule 5 draft, and assuming the rules won’t change, who do the Royals need to consider protecting?
Will be protected
Lucas Braun was acquired from the Braves in the Lane Thomas trade, and the right-hander could be in the mix for a rotation spot at some point next year. He had a solid 4.16 ERA with 8.2 strikeouts-per-nine innings across Double-A and Triple-A. The 25-year-old won’t blow anyone away with velocity, but he uses command, deception, a deep arsenal of pitches, and a lower arm angle to generate good results.
Carson Roccaforte is a slam-dunk to be added after a 35 HR/32 SB season in which he hit .257/.338/.519 across Double-A and Triple-A. Roccaforte turns 25 in late March, and he should be in the outfield mix for next season, although he is a left-handed bat and the Royals are already lefty-heavy in the outfield.
Could be protected
Felix Arronde flashes good stuff, but his inability to miss bats really hurt his performance this year. He started out okay, but was awful in the second half with a 9.76 ERA in his last nine starts. Overall he posted a 6.49 ERA in 105.1 innings with Northwest Arkansas, after a promising season the year before. The Cuban right-hander is still just 23 years old and has a mid-90s fastball with a curve and split-fingered changeup. He is ranked #15 in the farm system by Baseball America and could be seen as a good project for an organization good at developing pitchers.
Gavin Cross has had a very enigmatic career, but he seemed to turn a corner this summer. The former first-round pick turned it on in mid-May and hit .291/.334/.535 with 17 home runs in his last 82 games. He has the pedigree and the power, but the strikeouts are still a big concern. Like Roccaforte, he is left-handed, so the Royals may find him expendable.
Brett Squires smashed 31 home runs last year, hitting .277/.351/.549 with 24 steals to boot. The undrafted free agent has hit in the minors, but will be 27 years old by next spring. Older hitters who rake in the upper minors are typically unprotected, and only two first basemen have been selected in the Rule 5 draft in the last decade – Mike Ford (2017) and Ryan Noda (2022).
Long shots to be protected
Jacob Berry was acquired from the Marlins midseason and hit .251/.350/.416 overall at Triple-A with 12 home runs and 19 steals. He’s a former first-round pick whose power has never materialized, but displays good contact rates. He’s a switch-hitter and the Royals had him play second, third, and outfielder, so he could have some value as a utility player.
Austin Charles is an intriguing, toolsy athlete who combines power, speed, and a terrific arm. He has also had trouble staying on the field, and was limited to just 45 games at High-A this year. He is just 22 year old, and jumping to the big leagues is a big stretch considering his lack of a track record, but he did look impressive this year, hitting .285/.353/.491.
Derlin Figueroa had the third-most home runs in the farm system with 26, behind Roccaforte and Squires. The 21-year-old left-handed hitter had a line of .252/.324/.515 with 18 steals in High-A for the Quad Cities River Bandits. He plays first and third, positions teams don’t typically take in the draft, and the big leagues would be a big jump for the 23-year-old.
Frank Mozzicato wasn’t protected or selected last year, and seems unlikely to be an option this year either after putting up an 8.04 ERA with 72 walks in 71.2 innings. And yet, is there a team out there that thinks they can work with his plus curveball, add some velo to his fastball and shape up his command? Probably not.
Spencer Nivens is a Columbia, Missouri native and former Missouri State outfielder who hit .280/.365/.446 with nine home runs and 17 steals in 104 games in his second tour of Northwest Arkansas. He has a really good eye at the plate with good walk numbers and low strikeout numbers. He is another left-handed outfield bat, so the Royals may not feel the need to protect him.
Hunter Owen has shown good strikeout rates the last two seasons, but was hit a lot more this year, causing his ERA to rise to 5.94 for Northwest Arkansas. He’s a lefty who can miss bats, a profile that teams frequently like to take in the Rule 5 draft, so I think the Royals would have to at least consider protecting him despite his poor ERA.
Jack Pineda did nothing but hit this year. He had an impressive line of .371/.443/.548 in 59 games at Double-A, then hit .302/.337/.488 in 22 games for Omaha. But he has never really done this before, with very weak offensive numbers prior to 2026. The 27-year-old is able to play all over the infield, which is attractive to teams, and he could be selected if a team feels he figured something out this year.
Daniel Vázquez is a glove-first shortstop who raised eyebrows last fall with a very impressive performance in the Arizona Fall League. But his offense fell flat this year at Double-A, with a line of .246/.315/.328 and just four home runs in 124 games. He is just 22 years old and his glove may be MLB ready, so a team could take a gamble on him if they think his bat will catch up eventually.
Peyton Wilson has been a good organizational soldier, hitting at every level and playing wherever the Royals ask him. That kind of versatility could be attractive to teams looking at him in the Rule 5 draft, but he will be 27 next year and his upside is low enough that I don’t think the Royals would sweat losing him too much. The switch-hitter batted .276/.359/.430 with seven home runs and 17 steals for Omaha, and does a little bit of everything well.
Jordan Woods was an undrafted free agent out of Canada who had Tommy John surgery early on. This summer he tossed six perfect innings with 14 strikeouts in an outing for the Columbia Fireflies. He was moved up to High-A Quad Cities, where he struggled with a 5.80 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 40.1 innings. He is very much a long shot, but his added velocity and flashes of brilliance make him intriguing as a young lefty who has been moved slowly due to his injury.
Steven Zobac seemed to be on his way to being added to the 40-man roster until injuries intervened. He has been limited to less than 100 innings over the last two years combined. The right-hander has a good profile for a reliever, and a team could take a gamble on him hoping he could stay healthy, but his upside as a prospect has waned.
Other eligible players: Angel Acosta, Roni Cabrera, Christian Chamberlain, Dustin Dickerson, Tyson Guerrero, Jose Gutierrez, Josh Hansell, Chase Isbell, Brandon Johnson, Justin Johnson, Chazz Martinez, Mason Miller, Shane Panzini, Hunter Patteson, Coleman Picard, Yimi Presinal, Henry Ramos, Ryan Ramsey, Oscar Rayo, Emmanuel Reyes, Ben Sears, Erick Torres, Luca Tresh, Hyungchan Um, Javier Vaz, Trevor Werner, Henry Williams
