A lot has happened since the Seattle game last Sunday. There aren’t many news cycles where the annual Apple event, releasing brand-new iPhones and AirPods, fades to the background of what people are talking about. Don’t let that distract you from the fact that the week Apple announced their new products… we Niners fans are all forced to switch to Mac.
If this were later in the season, before the Texans
or Rams game, I’d be more concerned. Thankfully, Mac Jones will be starting against the Saints.
The Saints are not as terrible as they seem on paper, but their defense is not close to as good as the Seahawks’. Cam Jordan is no slouch off the edge, and the linebackers have improved, but they just lost star safety Julian Blackmon to injured reserve. Kool-Aid-McKinstry gave up a 155 passing rating whenever he covered Marvin Harrison Jr. Ricky Pearsall should handle him just fine, especially after what he did to Tariq Woolen. The Saints’ run defense was exploited by James Conner and Trey Benson, who ran all over them. This performance is promising for Christian McCaffrey and Brian Robinson Jr., who had previously torched a much better run defense in Seattle.
With all this support from his receivers and running backs, Mac will be coming with AppleCare. The Genius Bar will scheme him some open passes and big runs with a Mac-hiavellian game plan. Jones just needs to handle the edge pressure. But ultimately, I think the offense will be fine, as long as they’re not in any tight spots and aren’t relied upon to win the game.
The main way to guarantee that is if the defense steps up to make it easy for the offense. I wrote in my season preview that in order to beat Seattle, the defense had to be competent AND disruptive. I also wrote that a win would be a proof-of-concept for Robert Saleh that he has a defense that can carry the team on its back, at least against subpar OL/QB combos.
Despite having a weaker opposing defense, this applies even moreso to the Saints game now that Brock Purdy is out. It’s still very winnable with Mac Jones, but we can’t bank on the offense popping off like it could if they had Brock Purdy (and George Kittle, for that matter). The Seattle game showed that the capability to play at a high-enough level is there… the only question is the sustainability.
The Saints’ offense hung in there against Arizona, and they were a 14.9% chance of a catch away from taking the Cardinals to overtime. If Juwan Johnson pulled a Jake Tonges did and held on to the ball, the story would be much brighter on Spencer Rattler. He took them down the field in a two-minute drill when the stakes were the highest. I don’t care who you are; if you can do that, then you’re a quarterback worth respecting at least slightly.
He has a weapon in Chris Olave, a run game with the Alvin Kamara/Kendre Miller two-headed monster, and a blindside protector in Kelvin Banks Jr. But much like Sam Darnold, the ultimate vulnerability is in his offensive line, specifically the right side. RT Taliese Fuaga seems to be dealing with a knee injury; his backup, Asim Richards, struggled filling in for him, and RG Cesar Ruiz is already one of the league’s most penalized offensive linemen. I predicted that the defensive line would have to win us the Seattle game, and they did. Much has been written about the Los Gatos Leap and all of its parallels to the Catch, but I think it’s gone a little under the radar how much Nick Bosa’s game-ending strip-sack is reminiscent of Justin Smith’s sack of Drew Brees in the New Orleans playoff game.
Justin Smith’s sack was in a more important game, against a better player, and was a more impressive feat of strength, given that he reached over Jermaine Bushrod to just bring down Brees with one hand. But Bosa’s sack was more decisive (it effectively won the game), and the outcome of a play was better (turnover vs pressure). It’s also underrated how quickly he recognized the ball was loose, positioned himself to go where it was going by angling his body in mid-air, and then pounced on it before anyone else could get there.
It was like a Kevon Looney rebound in terms of spatial awareness to position himself, subtle body control, and lightning-fast recognition/reaction/anticipation of where the ball is bouncing. All within the span of 2 seconds. A major reason why he was in the position in the first place was because of Mykel Williams. Look at this screenshot and count the number of Seattle blockers focusing on Mykel, with their backs turned to Nick Bosa.
When Nick Bosa gets a 1-on-1 match-up against a middling left tackle on the most important possession of the game, good things happen.
I don’t care about Mykel’s low PFF score or invisibility in the box score. In the first game of his career, the offense was so worried about Mykel Williams that they felt like they could risk leaving Nick Bosa on an island on what could have been their winning pass play. Just that alone makes me confident in the 49ers’ chances against a team like the Saints.
That’s not to mention Mykel Williams’ run defense, which helped Fred Warner and Dee Winters get clean shots at the running back. This will be a great game for him and the other rookie defensive players to get valuable reps, because it’s a good mix of high-stakes and low-difficulty.
They’re especially needed to contribute to this game, and it shouldn’t be a particularly hard game to do so. It’ll be interesting to see if Kellen Moore moves Chris Olave to the slot the way he did in the preseason. Seattle seemed to be match-up hunting with Upton Stout in the first half, but Stouts tend to open up after you let them warm up for a bit at room temperature. By the second half, he started finding his groove.
After such a strong opening statement to kick off the season, this Sunday’s follow-up could plant some seeds that might matter down the line, in unexpected ways. The young defense will need this experience before facing more legit offenses the following weeks against Arizona and Jacksonville, possibly still needing to carry the team, depending on how Brock’s toe heals. This will be the game to iron out mistakes, build confidence with some big plays, and learn valuable lessons before things get even realer.
That’s the beauty of this part of the season’s aging process. It’s still early, but we get to see how the 49ers have been approaching the past five months over the course of a few hours. A stout is similar in that months and years of work all culminates into one moment, a few sips, and it’s gone. New Orleans is home to Parish Brewing, which released an Easter-flavored stout called The Hare back in early April, right around peak NFL Draft mania.
They started aging the Hare three years ago in bourbon barrels – around the same time the 49ers rookies really started getting their reps in on their college teams – and added milk chocolate and toasted marshmallow in honor of the holiday. The Hare is available on their website for shipping – sadly not to California – so you could try this multi-year project as you watch these former college stars graduate and mature into real NFL stars before our very eyes.
