Much has been made of yet another Ravens’ fourth quarter collapse during their loss to the Saints in Week 2. “It was the defense’s fault!” or “it was Declan Doyle’s fault!” have been reccuring phrases from fans. While we are all quick to scapegoat, there is actually a much simpler issue that, if fixed, would have the Ravens sitting at the top of the NFL standings — penalties. Not just any type of penalties, though, but specifically ones that absolutely kill drives and positive plays. Through two
weeks, the Ravens have lost -11.0 EPA on the penalties themselves, second-most in the NFL behind only the Carolin Panthers. That number undersells the damage, though. It only captures what happened on the flag, not what the flag took away.
Add in the value of the plays those penalties erased and the picture gets worse. The Ravens’ nullified plays were worth a combined +9.2 EPA, by far the most in the league. Baltimore isn’t getting flagged for holding on a stuffed run or an incomplete pass. It’s having productive plays called back again and again: a Ja’Kobi Lane touchdown, a 19-yard catch by Rashod Bateman, an 11-yard grab by Mark Andrews, a Lamar Jackson first down scramble. Combine the two, and the Ravens’ total penalty cost comes to -20.1 EPA, just a hair behind Carolina’s -20.2.
Unfortunately, there’s more . . . most offenses make back some of what they lose by drawing flags from opposing defenses. The Panthers have recovered +3.1 EPA that way, and Minnesota and Buffalo have each gained more than +19. Baltimore has gained, drum roll . . . zero. The Ravens are the only offense in the league without a single accepted defensive penalty.
That leaves Baltimore with a net offensive penalty EPA of -20.1, the worst mark in the NFL. No team has lost more to penalties on offense, and no team has gotten less back.
Then, you factor in some of the questionable calls at the end of the Saints game – that’s really when I started scratching my head. Is it possible that the Ravens are only committing offensive penalties on very successful plays, and the opposing defense hasn’t committed a penalty?
A number of the team’s offensive penalties have certainly been valid but there are some that haven’t been. Chris Moore’s holding penalty last week and John Simpson’s “chop block” in Week 1 were highly questionable. The opposing team hasn’t been the victim of any of these 50/50 calls — especially on plays that yield very positive results. Obviously, you would surmise that these penalties are in-part leading to some of these eventually negated plays, but the Ravens have also generated explosive plays without them, so that doesn’t seem valid.
These penalties had a major swing factor against the Saints, especially the ones in the 3rd quarter, which led to them losing ~5 expected points. The Ravens had reached the Saints 28 yard line, but were backed all the way up by penalties, resulting in a field goal. They were moving the ball effortlessly and would have probably scored a touchdown. For some quick back of hand math, the Ravens lost by seven points. If those flags did not occur, they should have theoretically been in position to win or tie the game at the end with a field goal – at the very least.
Obviously, none of this really matters now and the result is the result. However, the Ravens clearly need to clean up this penalty mess. It’s costing them big time and while part of this is on the Ravens technique, you would clearly expect some of the penalty luck to naturally start swinging in their favor soon. Two weeks isn’t a large sample size but at this pace, they are on track to shatter the NFL record for the most net expected points lost to penalties on offense.
What does all this mean? Yes, the Ravens need to clean some things up – but I have a feeling some good luck might be coming their way. They are currently on pace to quadruple the NFL record for net penalty EPA lost on offense, and that probably won’t continue.
