As we head into an offseason of uncertainty, both for the Mets and the league as a whole, a strong starting place is to reset our view of the current 40-man roster. The Mets will need to make decisions ahead of the Rule 5 draft, and it’s worth considering who exactly be added to the back of the roster.
We start with the current 40-man, which will sit at 43 players after Jorge Polanco, Reed Garrett, and Tylor Megill come off the 60-day injured list. Let’s work through this group in sections:
Guaranteed contracts
Currently,
the Mets have nine players under guaranteed contracts for 2027:
- Juan Soto
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Marcus Semien
- Jorge Polanco
- Sean Manaea
- Kodai Senga
- Devin Williams
- Luis Torrens
Most of these players are either valuable enough to be locks (Soto, Lindor unless he’s traded, Torrens given his low salary and recent extension) or middling enough that it’d be difficult to move without eating most of the money and being entirely counterproductive (Williams, Senga, Manaea). Bichette, despite recent speculation, still seems likely to opt in given his performance this year.
That leaves Semien and Polanco, and I’d bet that at least one is not on the roster next season. There is a better argument to move on from Semien, in my opinion, for three reasons. First, injury cannot explain his poor performance this year, this simply looks like an aging player who is cooked. Second, he is blocking multiple prospects (Jefferson Rojas, Emilien Pitre, Mitch Voit) who are ready or nearly so. Third, he is much more likely to be a malcontent about a move to a bench role. The Mets would be well served eating money to move him elsewhere or simply cutting him.
In any event, whether it’s Semien or Polanco, let’s assume the Mets open one roster spot here by moving one or the other.
40-Man Roster Count: 42
Arbitration-eligible players
Another ten players are arb-eligible, and boy howdy it’s a set of names:
- Tylor Megill
- Dedniel Núñez
- Austin Warren
- Cionel Pérez
- Francisco Alvarez
- Mark Vientos
- Cristian Pache
- Brett Baty
- Cristopher Morel
- Reed Garrett
Morel and Pache are obvious non-tenders, and Pérez seems like one as well. Mark Vientos might not get non-tendered, but there’s just no way he can be rostered on the 2027 roster at this point—consider him gone via trade or NT. Most of the others are cheap or good enough to hang onto, which leaves Brett Baty. He’s been just good enough that I suspect he sticks around, but he too could be on the move if the Mets don’t want to pay him $2M+ in arbitration.
For now, let’s assume that Baty sticks around and that four roster spots are opened up from this group
40 Man Roster Count: 38
Pre-arbitration players
There are eleven players who are obviously safe:
- Nolan McLean
- Christian Scott
- Jonah Tong (a potential trade candidate, but not someone you’d shuffle off solely to make roster space)
- Nate Lavender
- Zac Thornton
- Hayden Senger (consider him a stand in for a 3rd catcher of some sort)
- Jared Young
- Carson Benge
- A.J. Ewing
- Nick Morabito
- Justin Hagenman (useful rotation depth with options remaining)
Five other pre-arb players are out of options:
- Chayce McDermott
- Tobias Myers
- Robert Stock
- Ronny Mauricio
- Daniel Duarte
Myers still has utility and I’d expect him to be on the roster come camp time. McDermott is someone the Mets likely try to sneak through waivers at some point. The other three, though, seem likely to go, with Mauricio an obvious trade candidate to some other team that can give him runway. That’s another four roster spots there.
Finally, we have a big pile of semi-interesting arms, most of whom have been on waivers at some point or another as well as a couple of utility bats:
- Jonathan Pintaro
- Dylan Ross
- Jack Weisenburger
- Cameron Weston
- Phillip Abner
- Jefry Yan
- Eric Wagaman
- Christian Cairo
Rather than getting into the weeds on all of these guys (none of whom have standout skills nor any sort of major league track record), let’s simply assume that four spots will open up as part of routine churn, while another four spots remain allocated to this player archetype.
40 Man Roster Count: 30
Prospect adds
Finally we make it to the interesting stuff: the prospects. Jefferson Rojas and Jacob Reimer are obvious locks, we need not spend more time worrying whether the Mets will protect them or not. Gary Gill Hill, acquired in the Freddy Peralta trade with the Rays, is a near-major league ready starter of decent quality and is also effectively a lock. Zach Franklin, acquired in the Huascar Brazobán trade, has also looked excellent and could be a bullpen option at the start of 2027; he also seems like a high-probability add.
Beyond those four, there are some decisions that are less clear:
- Jack Wenninger: Wenninger was unable to repeat his breakout 2025 in 2026, seeing regression in both his stuff and results in Triple-A. Some of that is the Triple-A ball and run environment, but this also just happens to pitching prospects of this caliber. Still, he seems like a likely add given his potential short-term major league utility (which makes him more likely to be selected in Rule 5).
Conclusion: Added to 40-man - Marco Vargas: Vargas has never added thump nor has he been particularly healthy. His contact skills have also decayed as he’s moved up the ladder, leaving him without an obvious carrying tool. The strong lines he posted in St. Lucie and Binghamton this year were the product of a .400 BABIP. I think this is someone the Mets can leave unprotected.
Conclusion: Not added - Ryan Clifford: Clifford totally fell apart, and that he did so in the insane Triple-A run environment is all the more damning. It seems like simply can’t hit, and you don’t need to protect someone with that obvious a flaw.
Conclusion: Not added - Chris Suero: Suero is unfortunately more fun than good. He probably can’t hit, and he’s not really a catcher. If someone else wants to gamble on shoving him in the majors, god speed, but I don’t think he needs to be added.
Conclusion: Not added - Randy Guzman: He is 21 with serious swing-and-miss concerns, has only appeared in eight games above Single-A, and missed the final month of the season hurt. I think he has more potential than Suero, Clifford, and Vargas at this point, but adding him at this stage starts burning options prematurely. He can likely be left unprotected.
Conclusion: Not added - Brian Metoyer, Saul Garcia, Ben Simon: Three Triple-A bullpen arms with semi-interesting stuff, the exact demographic of player that typically gets poached in Rule 5. All three have fastballs that grade out well. Metoyer is the only one with a plus breaker, but also has the worst control, and he’s also the oldest. I’d add him and leave the others unprotected, but you could make an argument for protecting all or none.
Conclusion: Add Metoyer, leave Simon and Garcia unprotected
40 Man Roster Count: 36
