The Pittsburgh Penguins have not really become involved in the offseason chaos just yet, and given the trade prices we are seeing around the league it leads to some questions as to what they should be doing this week.
Just a quick recap of what we have seen so far.
- It only cost moving down seven spots in the draft for San Jose to get Michael Kesselring from Buffalo.
- Restricted free agent Mackie Samoskevich, a good, but not quite complete, restricted free agent cost the No. 25 pick in the draft and a future second-round pick.
- Brady Tkachuk cost three first-round picks, two of which were in the top-25 this season, including the No. 9 overall pick, plus a future second-round pick. And that was in a situation where his team only had one other team to negotiate with.
- Simon Nemec, a talented but still flawed defenseman, cost the Calgary Flames two first-round picks.
- William Eklund cost that same No. 9 overall pick that went to Ottawa for Tkachuk.
- Bowen Byram, a talented, but not great, defenseman with only one year remaining on his contract before being eligible for unrestricted free agency, cost the No. 4 overall pick in the draft, plus the No. 45 overall pick in the draft, and a prospect. Lunacy.
- Jordan Kyrou, coming off a down year, cost Connor McMichael, a mid-first-round pick, and a prospect.
There’s a lot happening there, and it’s hard to get a real read on what the trade market actually is and what I would like to see the Penguins do with that.
The prices for incomplete players like Nemec and Samoskevich seem a little on the
high side.
The price for a good, but not great, defenseman like Byram seems outrageous.
In some ways, it seems to very much be a seller’s market.
I thought the best trade from a buyer perspective was the Capitals getting Kyrou, because neither the prospect or McMichael really impressed me. Kyrou has a chance to be a serious impact player for a Capitals team that is probably going to be very good this season.
I’m not sure what the equivalent Penguins offer is on that level, but No. 22, Ville Koivunen and … I’m not even sure they have an NHL comparable to McMichael on their roster … maybe Tommy Novak? … would have been something close I feel. I don’t think someone like Rutger McGroarty has done enough to be the McMichael in that offer, but maybe close? I’d have paid that price, but St. Louis probably doesn’t take it.
Players like Nemec, Eklund and Samoskevich seem to fit the mold of what general manager Kyle Dubas is looking for this offseason.
Are you paying those prices? And more importantly, CAN the Penguins pay those? Do they have the assets for that?
I would have happily given up No. 22 for Eklund, but why would San Jose do that when No. 9 is on the table? What else could you throw in to top that? How many of your second-and third-round picks, or what level of prospect or player, does it take to makeup the value difference between No. 22 and No. 9?
I think I would have done the Samoskevich trade. Egor Chinakhov cost a second-round pick and a third-round pick when he was not anywhere near as proven as Samoskevich currently is, so I think it’s fair to bump that price up to No. 22 and a second. There’s still something more there, especially in a potentially bigger role.
They had nothing that could have touched Chicago’s offer for Byram, and quite honestly, I would have had words for Kyle Dubas if he would have tried to top it. If anything, that trade would make me want to keep calling Kyle Davidson’s phone until he makes a trade with me.
There are a couple of different angles I see with all of this.
1. Take advantage of the seller’s market. Teams are clearly paying some big prices, and you have Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, and Erik Karlsson sitting there as potential trade chips. Especially Karlsson coming off an absolutely massive year, and a rising salary cap taking some of the sting out of his cap hit.
The argument for it: You could potentially set yourself up with even more assets, either in the form of future draft picks or prospects, that could either be a part of your rebuild or give yourself additional trade chips to get what you need/want in the future. Whether it be this offseason or future seasons.
The argument against it: The Penguins don’t really have the pieces that are bringing back these big returns. Everybody that’s getting the big prices are players in their early-to-mid 20s. Rakell and Rust are second-line wingers in their mid-30s. Wingers always have less trade value than centers and defenseman. Age is also a massive component of this.
Kyrou is a 28-year-old winger, and potentially a first-line winger, with probably higher upside in the near-term, and he produced one of the worst returns of these deals when taking into account his current level of play and potential impact. Other than getting another potential first-round pick that might be able to be included in another deal, that type of return doesn’t move the needle for me or wow me.
The one guy on the team that MIGHT bring a bigger return, and he would probably the hardest for me to move given what he did this past season and the potential that is there, is actually Chinakhov.
HE is the guy that fits the mold for players that are bringing big prices.
Do you want to do that? I’m not saying he’s on my untouchable list, but that would have to be a big price or he would have to be a part of a big return to get me to do it. He’s one of the few potential young impact players you have on the roster right now.
2. Stick to the plan of adding early-mid-20s players and don’t be afraid of the prices. I’ve been saying for a while now that we tend to overvalue draft picks and prospects, even in a rebuild.
The argument for it: The most successful teams in the NHL right now are not necessarily built from within beyond their top two-or-three players. They are aggressively pieced together through trades and other moves to bring in talent from the outside. The teams that sit around and wait for everybody to develop, hoarding picks and prospects, are the ones that stay stuck in their rut in a perpetual, never-ending rebuild for 10 years.
Not all of these draft picks the Penguins make are going to pan out.
Not all of the prospects in the farm system are going to pan out.
While having more picks increases your odds of actually finding a player, sometimes having more picks can work as a detriment as prospects feel squeezed out, don’t see a path forward in your organization, and may not want to sign or may want to force their way out. There are pros and cons to all of it.
Is No. 22 really too high of a pick to add an early-20s forward that is somewhat proven and still has untapped potential? The historical value of the No. 22 pick is solid, but not great. You’re just hoping to find somebody that makes the NHL and sticks at that point. If that pick turns into somebody as good as Samoskevich or Eklund five years from now you’d be ecstatic with that pick. You could get somebody on that level for right now, for the next five or six years.
There is also the reality that, for as good as this draft class looked to be a year ago, it seems to have fallen way short of that expectation in reality. Nobody seems to actually want to make a pick. Top-10 picks never get traded. For anybody. In any year. We have already seen the No. 9 pick change hands two different times, and the No. 4 pick move for a guy that is an unrestricted free agent after this season.
The argument against it: The prices are, again, high. And it’s not just about making trades, but making smart trades.
There is also the reality that while the Penguins greatly exceeded expectations a year ago, and seem to have their eyes on at least being competitive this season, they are not quite at a championship level that has them one or two players away. Even though Dubas is not completely ripping everything down, his goal remains building a championship-worthy team. There is still a balance that needs to be hit here.
