THE TOP TWO TEAMS SQUARE OFF IN A MUST -WIN FOR THE AZTECS
Boise State and San Diego State are both coming off of surprising defeats to conference foes. Who will show up?
GAME INFO:
Location: Snapdragon Stadium,
San Diego, California
Date/Time: Saturday, November 15, 6:30 (Pacific Time)
Television: CBS Sports Network
Streaming:
Radio: San Diego Sports 760
Betting Line: The Aztecs (7-2, 4-1 MWC) return home from their Hawaiian Islands debacle to take on perennial conference powerhouse Boise State (6-3, 4-1 MWC). The Aztecs are starting as 2.5 point favorites and a surprising low 41.5 point over/under. This is projecting a 22-19 final score in favor of the Aztecs. On the other side of the scale, Boise State is a 63.3% to 36.7% chance to win according to ESPN analytics. Boise State has averaged 35.4 points per game in their five conference contests, while their defense has yielded an average of 25 points per game. The Aztecs meanwhile have averaged 28.4 points per game while their selfish defense has kept opponents to a 15.8 point per game average. Expect to see the over on the scoreboard.
Questions abound for the Aztecs and their defense. A stalwart for the first part of the season, the defense was reliable and dependable. Unfortunately, they failed to show up against Hawaii as the Warriors had their way with the Aztecs. Of course one can point to linebacker Tano Letuli and cornerback Chris Johnson both missing the game. Their replacements, Mister Williams and Deshawn McCuin both played well, but there’s always chemistry at play that can sway an outcome. Quarterback Jayden Denegal, was a lackluster 10/27 passing for 132 yards and two interceptions. He was playing injured and one must wonder if that made a difference. A bright spot on offense was receiver Donovan Brown who hauled in three catches for 60 yards including a long of 45 yards. He might help get attention off of Jordan Napier who only had two catches last week.
The Aztecs and Broncos have played ten previous times with Boise State holding a 6-4 advantage. The series started in 2011 with a Boise win, 52-35. The Aztecs won the following year 21-19 as well as in 2013, 34-31. Boise State has won the last three games including last year’s 56-24 drubbing in Boise.
THE OPPOSITION: BOISE STATE BRONCOS
Second year head coach Spencer Danielson was hard pressed to top last season’s Fiesta bowl appearance. Of course missing off of this year’s team was All-American Ashton Jeanty. Returning quarterback Maddux Madsen sustained an injury two weeks ago at Fresno State and will be out for this game. Madsen was 152/255 passing for 1993 yards and 15 touchdowns. That type of offensive production will be missed through the air. Of course, the Broncos live on the ground. They are led by a trio of capable and exciting backs. Dylan riley has 745 yards on the season on 104 attempts. Sire Gains has added an additional 474 on 99 carries and Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod has added 317 more on 64 carries. How the running game goes, so goes the Broncos in this game against San Diego State. Backup quarterback Max Cutfort will be challenged to find his receivers. The corp is led by Chris Marshall who has 24 receptions and 467 yards and Latrell Caples who adds 350 more yards on 26 receptions. On defense, the Broncos have some of the better defensive players with Marco Notarainni at linebacker with 50 tackles, Jayden Virgin-Morgan at edge rusher with another 42 tackles and defensive back A’Marion McCoy with four interceptions and two pick six returns. The Broncos have picked off 11 passes this year. Apply some pressure to Denegal and the Broncos might control the defensive backfield. The Broncos have bounced back from each of their previous victories. Will they be able to come back from the loss at Fresno State? The Mountain West Conference used to be Boise State and everybody else, but in the last few years other teams have stepped up including Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State and recently, UNLV. Parity and balance is a good thing for the conference.
What will be the outcome of the game?
Aztec defense against Boise State offense. Expect points on both sides. Each team is working to put their last game in their rear view mirror. The Broncos lost two weeks ago to Fresno State 30-7 while the Aztecs lost last week to Hawaii 38-6. Both teams had four game winning streaks prior to their defeats. Coach Spencer Danielson of Boise State has his Broncos on the cusp of another conference Championship game. Last year’s dream season gave the Broncos and their fans high hopes for this season, but having three losses, and bad losses at that, on their record, show this is not a Bronco team that can match previous high expectations. The Broncos are an offensive juggernaut, having put up more than 50 points twice and scoring in the 40’s on three other occasions. The Broncos will have to settle for backup quarterback and former walk-on Max Cutforth to take the reins from Maddux Madsen, who is still out with an leg injury sustained against Fresno State. One can say when Madsen went out, the Broncos chances went with it. Cutforth struggled, going 14/29 passing for 106 yards with a score and two interceptions in the Broncos 30-7 loss to Fresno State. Will two weeks of practice taking first team snaps help? It’s likely they will provide Cutforth some confidence. He also brings a size increase over Madsen. Cutforth is 6’2” while Madsen is 5’10”. Aztec quarterback Jayden Denegal is listed as questionable after absorbing a big hit last week. He missed nine plays, but did return to finish out the contest. Senegal is as tough as they come, but can only do so much if injured. This game looks to be entertaining and a large home crowd might sway the game towards the Aztecs favor. Expect the Broncos and Aztecs to take the game deep into the fourth quarter where a Bronco field goal will win the game, 31-28.
Around the Mountain West Conference
The Aztecs are currently tied at the top of the Mountain West standings with Boise State. The winner of this game will have the track towards the first place spot in the conference championship game. They might face Boise State again, or possibly Hawaii again. After the Aztecs, the Broncos will have a home game against Colorado State and finish their regular season on the road at Utah State. Watch out for the Aggies as they are sneaky good. The Rams, eh, not so much. The Aztecs finish off the season at home against San Jose State and at New Mexico. Both games could wield nasty surprises if the Aztecs aren’t careful. Both the Spartans and Lobos have shown the ability to win but also a propensity to lose. The Lobos are on a three game win streak after having lost to the spartans and Broncos. They finish their season home against Colorado State, at Air force and home against the Aztecs. Fresno State winds up their final three games at home against Wyoming, Utah State and on the road at San Jose State in the Valley trophy game. UNLV is the other serious contender at 7-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play. They had back to back losses to Boise and New Mexico and bounced back with a 42-10 thrashing of Colorado State. They finish the season at home against Utah State and Hawaii while travelling to Nevada for the Fremont Cannon. These are the likely final contenders for the Mountain West Championship game. With the drop at the top of the conference, it is likely that no team will enter into the College Football Championship game. There is a better showing of more teams as the only real doormats are Colorado State and Nevada. The Rams have already fired coach Jay Norvell, but Nevada is patient with coach Jeff Choate. Coach Sean Lewis has shown he is the man to lead the Aztecs, but what and how he turns the team around after last week’s loss will be one to watch. Basketball season is rapidly approaching as some preseason games are already taking place. Meanwhile expect fireworks on the Mesa Saturday night. Big and loud crowd to see the Aztecs take over the lead or play second fiddle to the Broncos again. It should be exciting.
