One of the (many) frustrating things about this Orioles season is the distribution of their losses. They have held their own against some of the league’s top teams, like these Blue Jays, whom the Orioles are 6-4 against. Meanwhile, they went a combined 1-11 against the Twins and Nationals. So, does that mean the suddenly streak O’s are in for another weekend of wins? Fingers crossed.
The Toronto Blue Jays have not gotten past the Wild Card round of the playoffs since 2016. As things stand now, the AL
East leaders would advance straight to the Divisional Round this season as the top seed in the American League.
It’s the offense that’s carrying the Blue Jays. They have scored the second-most runs in the AL, and the fourth-most in all of MLB. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is putting up another impressive season, posting a .301/.393/.494 slash line with a 146 wRC+ and 23 home runs. But George Springer may be the team’s MVP. The veteran outfielder is hitting .297/.391/.544 with a 158 wRC+ and 28 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Alejandro Kirk (117 wRC+) and the currently injured Bo Bichette (133 wRC+) have also been productive.
The pitching has lagged behind the bats, but remains competent. Since the start of August the Blue Jays own a 3.98 ERA, ranking 11th in MLB, but their 4.55 xERA is down at 24th in the league. The bullpen is responsible for a 4.47 ERA and 4.48 xERA in that time. Closer Jeff Hoffman, who was nearly an Oriole this offseason before a bad physical nixed the deal, has struggled. He’s got a 5.00 xERA since August 1, is walking 5.29 per nine and giving up 2.65 home runs per nine. But the team’s options are limited. They do not have any one arm that has been unquestionably dominant late in games this season.
We won’t see Anthony Santander this weekend. He continues to rehab from left shoulder inflammation that has kept him out since late May. He may return by season’s end. Bichette is dealing with a knee sprain that will keep him out for this series as well. Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, and Yimi García are three other familiar names that will not play this weekend.
Game 1: Friday, September 12th, 7:07 p.m., MASN 2/MASN+
LHP Trevor Rogers (8-2, 1.51 ERA) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (11-8, 3.97 ERA)
Rogers had what is considered a bad start by his standards last time out. He became a footnote in the Yoshinobu Yamamoto no-hitter turned Orioles walk-off win. The lefty tossed just 5.1 innings and allowed two runs in the no decision. It was the first time he threw fewer than seven innings in a start since August 6. He has not given up more than two runs in a game since June 18.
The 36-year-old Bassitt is having himself a solid contract year, and has been very good so far in September. Over two starts this month opposing hitters have a .195/.277/.293 line against him, and he has a 1.64 ERA. The Orioles smacked him around the last time they faced him on July 28. That day he was charged with six runs over 2.1 innings.
Game 2: Saturday, September 13th, 3:07 p.m., MASN 2/MASN+
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (10-8, 4.51 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (5-3, 4.36 ERA)
Sugano is poised to make his next scheduled start despite leaving his last game after only three innings due to being hit by a comebacker. The 35-year-old has hit another rough patch. Over his last three games he’s got a 10.22 ERA and has given up six home runs across 12.1 innings. This will be his third time facing the Blue Jays this season, but the other two came early in the season.
It’s a matchup of olds as the 41-year-old Scherzer toes the rubber for Toronto. He has also been in bad form, accumulating a 7.53 ERA over his last three starts and giving up five home runs across 14.1 innings. His only start against the Orioles was back in late March, when he left the game after just three innings with an injury that would see him miss the three months that followed.
Game 3: Sunday, September 14th, 1:37 p.m., MASN/MASN+
TBD vs. RHP Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.30 ERA)
This is supposed to be Dean Kremer’s spot, but the righty is dealing with some forearm discomfort. He is planning to throw a bullpen in Toronto this weekend and then reassess when he can rejoin the rotation. The candidates to the make the spot start in his place seem to be Albert Suárez, Keegan Akin, or Dietrich Enns. Who ends up pitching may depend on the needs in the first two games of the series.
Bieber has made four starts this season, all of which have come with the Blue Jays after being dealt from the Guardians at the deadline. The first two were good, and the second two have been less so, but the underlying metrics remain solid. Over all four starts he has a 3.19 FIP and has featured his hardest fastball (92.8 mph) since 2020 (94 mph).
