It might feel like we can’t have nice things as Cub fans after a game like this. I’m sure there will be dozens of storylines all across the internet about the Cubs and blown saves on a day like this. And I’m not blowing smoke at anyone. I’m not revisiting this after a Saturday night game. But, yeah, you’ll see the Cubs have 21 blown saves. Out of just 50 opportunities. No question, an atrocious number. Ironically, an exact matching image of the Mariners.
Blown saves happen and they don’t always mean
what you think they do. When I deep dived the number a few months ago, it included a handful of games with either two blown saves in the same game or games the team won. When we think blown saves, we all think of games like this. Where the team was leading in the ninth and then lost. The most frustrating of blown saves. Where it literally feels like you snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Check this out. The Brewers have blown 18 saves. The Dodgers? 19. The Rays? 15. The Braves? 17. The Yankees? 23. The Phillies? 17. The Red Sox? 11. The Padres? With their vaunted bullpen and best closer on the planet? 15. The Diamondbacks? 15.
Yes the Cubs have blown a lot of saves. Yes, at times the Cub bullpen has been abysmal. I wouldn’t try to convince you otherwise. Blown saves are one of the stupidest statistics in baseball today and I defend most of the ones we have. How many of you are concerned about a blown save in the fifth inning? I’m positive the Cubs have one of those this year. Or a blown save in a game the team won? I think the Cubs have two or three of those this year. That stat should be discretionary. If the official scorer doesn’t believe the reliever is being brought in to close the game, it isn’t a blown save, it is a blown lead. That’s a different thing.
I believe as it stands right now, today, if the Cubs decided they were going to run a full bullpen day. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads off the first with a homer. Caleb Thielbar throws a perfect first inning, getting a pair of lefties out. Trent Thornton throws a perfect second inning before turning it over to Javier Assad for the third inning. Javy allows an unearned run in the third inning, then finishes the rest of the game. The Cubs go on to win 10-1. And Javy not only gets a win for his spectacular outing, but he gets a blown save. Because he entered a game with the lead. Thielbar didn’t throw enough innings to earn the win, but Thornton as a reliever absolutely can get a win. And Assad blew that.
Yeah, that totally belongs in the same category as Jacob Webb’s unfortunate Saturday night adventure. He wasn’t going to be perfect forever, but damn. What a way to lose it. Webb faced five batters and allowed three hits and three runs. Webb was last the Billy Goat on June 20. Between Billy Goats? 5-0 with 7 saves. 96 batters faced, 13 hits, 10 walks, 25 strikeouts and no runs. Earned or otherwise. Six perfect innings in there. Most of them in high leverage. A FIP of 2.27. We did have nice things. But it broke.
Bummer. This game sucks when it goes sideways. And this kind of loss is just about as bad as it gets.
Three Positives:
- Tyrone Taylor had a double, two walks, drove in a run and scored another. He stole a base. If you had Taylor as the best pickup for the Cubs at the deadline, you are probably the club house leader. I did tell you they’d benefit from a complementary player to Michael Conforto. One dangerous from each side of the plate. One with more power, one with more speed. He’s been a great addition so far.
- Alex Bregman had a solo homer in four plate appearances.
- So did Michael Busch. The Cubs had just seven hits, no one had two. They drew only three walks (and had a hit batter).
Game 130, August 22: Mariners 5, Cubs 4 (74-56)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Tyrone Taylor (.216). 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, RBI, R
- Hero: Michael Busch (.118). 1-4, HR, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Alex Bregman (.110). 1-4, HR, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Jacob Webb (-.916). 0.2 IP, 5 BF, 3 H, 3 R (L 6-3)
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.145). 1-4
- Kid: Miguel Amaya (-.110). 0-4, DP
NOTE: Preliminary indication is that this WPA game score for Webb is the worst for a Cub since September 23, 2017. Another dominant reliever in recent Cub history, Wade Davis was the victim. Wade entered the game in the ninth inning and allowed a solo homer to tie the game. He finished the inning. The Cubs scored a run against future Cub closer Jeremy Jeffress in the top of the 10th, only to have Travis Shaw walk off Davis with a two-run homer in the bottom of the 10th. Final WPA was -1.085. That was Davis’ first blown save as a Cub and it was essentially two blown saves in the same game.
WPA Play of the Game: Randy Arozarena’s two-run, walk-off homer. (.912)
Cubs Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s solo homer in the sixth that gave the Cubs the lead. (.196)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 129 Winner: It happens about once a year. Alex Bregman received 100 percent of the vote. Cade Horton was the last, last September 3. Just shy of one year since it happened.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +28
- Alex Bregman +25
- Shōta Imanaga +14
- Trent Thornton/Carson Kelly +13.5
- Seiya Suzuki -11
- Edward Cabrera -12.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -18.5
Scoreboard Watching: Braves lose (one up on Cubs) to Brewers (up seven). Phillies win (down two). Dodgers win (up five). Diamondbacks lose (down six). Padres win (down four). Only one positive result in there. This has been a nightmarish two-day stretch. Nothing is over, but it is going to take a monumental finish for the Cubs to do any better than Wild Card 1.
Up Next: Afternoon baseball in Seattle. Shōta Imanaga (8-9, 3.77) for the Cubs. Imanaga is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA over his last seven starts. The last two have been a little less good. But still, he’s one of the best Cub options. 28-year-old righty Bryce Miller (4-7, 3.71) pitches for the Mariners. He’s heading in the wrong direction (0-5, 6.57) over his last seven. He’s allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts. This is the guy you’re supposed to beat.
There is some level of trap to this game. Fangraphs shows this pitching matchup and the Cubs having 43.7% chance of winning (lower than either of the previous two games or the last one in the Sox series for that matter). Looking way ahead, Fangraphs gives the Cubs a higher chance of winning all four of the games against the Brewers later this month than this game. I’m betting against the trap. Cubs salvage one and head to Arizona where the matchups are a bit better.
