Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to
the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
Today’s Question: Who do you want to be Ohio State’s first CFP opponent?
Editor’s Note: Now look, I know some people get superstitious about looking ahead of things, but we here at LGHL aren’t even a little bit stitious, let alone superstitious. So we are tempting fate and looking ahead anyway.
Jami’s Take: Ole Miss
Unless the train jumps the tracks for the Buckeyes in the next four weeks of football, it’s looking more and more likely they will earn a bye week in the 2025 College Football Playoff.
I believe many of the teams currently ranked in the top 12 are somewhat fraudulent, which opens up the possibility for upsets in the first round. Still, if Ohio State manages to keep the No. 1 seed, their first opponent will be the winner of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 first-round matchup, so it’s unlikely they’ll benefit too much from this, as the margin of difference between a No. 8 and No. 9 team is somewhat negligible.
Based on the first College Football Playoff rankings, the current No. 8 team is Texas Tech (8-1), while the 7-1 Oregon Ducks sit in the No. 9 spot. It’s unlikely Texas Tech will stay in that slot, however, as BYU is currently ranked No. 7 and the two teams play each other this weekend, meaning they should rise with a win or drop with a loss.
With Notre Dame in the No. 10 spot and Texas in the No. 11 spot, with a little bit of movement, I don’t love our options from about No. 9 down. Oregon, Notre Dame, and Texas will all have something to prove against this Buckeye squad, with Oregon trying to avenge last year’s Rose Bowl, Notre Dame trying to avenge the National Championship, and Texas trying to avenge this year’s Week 1 game in Columbus.
While I think this Ohio State team is good enough to beat all three of those teams, it could make the road a little harder. Ohio State’s toughest games so far this year have been against then-No. 1 Texas (who turned out not to be the team everyone thought they were) and No. 17 Illinois, who the Buckeyes beat easily on the road, 34-16. I don’t particularly want them to have a gimme game in their first playoff matchup, as I’d like them to get battle-tested a bit, but I also don’t want them fighting for their life in their first round game.
For this reason, I think ideally, we’d see enough of a shakeup in the rankings that the current No. 6 team, Ole Miss, drops into the No. 8 or No. 9 spot, setting them up to play the Buckeyes in their first game. This isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Ole Miss’s remaining schedule looks to be a cake walk, with remaining games against The Citadel, Florida, and Mississippi State (their toughest game of the three). If BYU or Texas Tech has a commanding win this weekend, they could leapfrog over Ole Miss to drop the Rebels down to the No. 7 spot.
From there, Oregon has four remaining games, three against ranked teams (No. 20 Iowa, No. 19 USC, and No. 23 Washington), with its lone loss coming to No. 2 Indiana (a 10-point loss to a Hoosier team that is blowing out opponents by large margins left and right). If the Ducks win out against ranked teams, the committee could very well deem them the No. 7 team, with Ole Miss then dropping down into the No. 8 spot.
That’s right where I want ‘em, if I’m being honest.
Based on how the teams have been playing to date, most, if not all, of this pool is beatable for the Buckeyes. So why Ole Miss? I think they would provide just enough of a challenge while still allowing the Buckeyes to play to their strengths.
With marquee wins over LSU and Oklahoma, plus a loss to Georgia, I won’t go so far as to call Ole Miss “fraudulent” the way I would some other teams in the pool. I think they’re good enough to play a solid football game against Ohio State without taking the risk that OSU would get knocked out in their first playoff game.
Both Ohio State and Ole Miss lost a decent number of defensive players to the NFL after last season, but the Buckeyes have fared far better at rebuilding. While OSU remains the country’s top defense, the Rebels are ranked 46th and 51st in the nation in scoring defense and total defense, respectively. While Ohio State’s rushing attack has been its offensive weak spot, against Ole Miss, it might not be an issue, as its rushing defense ranks 75th in the nation. Additionally, their secondary has been inconsistent at best, which would open the door for both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to run amok.
Against Georgia, the Rebels gave up 500 total yards, and while their performance improved drastically this past week against South Carolina (a game in which they allowed just 230 yards while also netting 6 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, and two interceptions), comparing a 3-6 Gamecocks offense to Ohio State’s is apples and oranges. It seems the Rebels’ defense might be peaking at the right time, but I also simply don’t think they have talent robust enough to fully contain the Buckeyes. If they peak when it counts, they could help Ohio State expose some holes without bringing the season to a halt.
On the other side of the ball, the Rebels have relied on an explosive offense to win games, and they fared well against Oklahoma (which had been statistically ranked third in scoring defense when the two teams faced off). That still feels like apples and oranges. Ole Miss does a good job of converting on third down, and they have offensive firepower, but does it hold up against Ohio State’s secondary? I don’t think it does. Ohio State has spent the whole season disrupting opposing offenses by throwing quarterbacks off their game.
So ultimately, while I think Ole Miss has enough talent to perhaps play Ohio State tight or expose some areas for improvement heading into tougher games (which in my mind is ideal), I don’t think Ole Miss has what it takes to finish the job, especially if it’s their second playoff game. They’re the kind of team that is good enough to win a game in a four-team playoff if they play almost perfect football and get a little lucky, but I don’t see them doing that week over week in a wider playoff pool.
Matt’s Take: Texas Tech
Ole Miss is a fun choice, especially because going against Lane Kiffin would likely be a ton of fun. But I want to look at this in a different manner. I’m looking for the most interesting, compelling matchup. So, the first thing I did was put together a list of all of the teams currently in the College Football Playoff rankings. Then, I removed all Big Ten members or teams that the Buckeyes have played in relatively recent seasons; I also took out Jami’s pick of Ole Miss. So that leaves the following teams:
- Texas A&M
- BYU
- Texas Tech
- Oklahoma
- Virginia
- Louisville
- Vanderbilt
- Georgia Tech
- Miami
- Pittsburgh
Amongst the remaining options, there are a few interesting possibilities. I would love to see a rematch of the 2002 national championship game against Miami, or an opportunity to get some revenge against Oklahoma for the whole flag-planting incident in 2017. I also really respect what BYU is doing this year, and I enjoy watching them play.
I think Texas A&M would be one hell of a game, but that doesn’t feel like a quarterfinal matchup; that is more of a semifinal or championship game. So the one fun option still remaining for me is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders would provide an interesting matchup for the Buckeyes. At 8-1, Texas Tech is an extremely well-balanced team. They are fifth in the country in yards per game at 492.3, and they are third nationally, averaging 43.6 points per contest.
On the other side of the ball, Texas Tech is 10th nationally, allowing only 271.3 ypg and fifth in FBS, giving up just 13.2 ppg. According to SP+, the Red Raiders are the No. 4 team in the country and one of only three teams ranked in the top-10 on both offense and defense.
The numbers look pretty good for TT, and you would think that they would present a formidable challenge to the Buckeyes. However, I do recognize that they play in the Big 12, and the lower level of competition might have something to do those stats.
So, I think that Texas Tech would be the type of team that would show the Buckeyes some things on both sides of the ball that would be well-used as they continue their push through the playoffs, but I don’t actually think the Red Raiders have a legit chance to win the game. So it would be the perfect kind of tune-up game for OSU to get its playoff juices flowing.
