It’s hard to believe (or maybe not) that the last time the Hawkeyes and the Hoosiers faced off was more than 4 year ago. That Indiana team (featuring Michael Penix Jr.) came into Kinnick ranked 17th and discovered that the 18th ranked Hawkeyes were, well, pretty decent. This Indiana team, unlike their 2021 predecessors, comes to Iowa City firing on every cylinder possible, sporting an offense that is generating 588.5 ypg (#2 in the country) at a clip of 8.0 ypp (8th in the country) behind a QB who
is leading the country in passing touchdowns, completing 76.8% of his passes (#2 in the country), and has yet to throw an interception. Oh, and their defense is pretty good too, giving up 205.8 ypg (#3) and allowing just 4.2 ypp (tied for 25th with your Hawkeyes). Last week they sleep-walked to a 53 point win over Illinois too, so, yeah.
To put it succinctly, there is just about no pundit in the country predicting an Iowa win on Homecoming Saturday in Iowa City. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Series History
Iowa holds a pretty commanding lead in this series (46-28-4 all time) and have won the last four meetings. But this isn’t the Indiana football team that routinely reminded everyone that Indiana is a basketball school. Under Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers are 15-2, with both losses coming to last year’s national championship teams.
Offense
Iowa – 338.3 ypg (137.8 passing, 200.5 rushing), 33.0 ppg
Indiana – 588.5 ypg (279.8 passing, 308.8 rushing), 54.8 ppg
Iowa entered the Rutgers game ranked 103rd in total offense, but has showed marked improvement against the Scarlet Knights. The Hawkeyes put up 346 total yards in their 38-28 win, with Mark Gronowski throwing for 186 yards – his season high.
The Hoosiers are doing exactly what Tim Lester wants Iowa to do – they’re efficient, explosive, and balanced. Fernando Mendoza has completed 76.8% of his passes for 975 yards, 14 touchdowns, and zero interceptions through his first four games. Compare that to Gronowski’s modest 8-of-15 for 44 yards in his debut against Albany, and you can see why Vegas will likely favor the visitors.
The Hoosiers are operating at a different level offensively, but Iowa has shown improvement each week. Tim Lester’s system is starting to click – going from 103rd in total offense to putting up 346 yards against a decent Rutgers defense shows progress.
ADVANTAGE: Indiana – and while the gap has closed some, it’s still pretty wide
Defense
Iowa – 233.5.0 ypg allowed (172.8 passing, 60.8 rushing), 14.5 ppg allowed
Indiana – 205.8 ypg allowed (118.8 passing, 48.5 rushing), 12.3 ppg allowed
Phil Parker’s defense was dominant early, allowing just 178 yards per game through the first three contests. The 28 points allowed to Rutgers represented a significant departure from their early-season form, when they held Albany, Iowa State, and UMass to an average of just 10 points per game. Indiana’s defense has been equally impressive, with that dominant performance against Illinois where they sacked Luke Altmyer seven times and held the Illini to just 1-of-10 on third down.
Both defenses have shown they can dominate, even if Iowa’s unit had an uncharacteristic showing against Rutgers. The Hoosiers’ defense has been more consistent and their performance against Illinois was, in a word, stifling.
ADVANTAGE: Indiana – who will be bringing a two soon-to-be NFL WRs with them
Special Teams
Iowa – 43.0 punt avg, 77.8% fgm, 30.0 ypkr, 31.2 yppr
Indiana – 47.9 punt avg, 100% fgm, 26.3 ypkr, 18.6 yppr
This is normally where I’d be writing about how Iowa’s special teams give them a distinct edge over their opponent, but this year’s unit has been…let’s say…inconsistent. Drew Stevens missed another field goal in Piscataway (looked like a less than great snap, but it’s hard to say) and Rhys Dakin has yet to show off the leg that we all know he has. Obviously Kaden Wetjen’s 104-yd kickoff return to start the game was huge, but we also saw TJ Washington fumble a kickoff.
Indiana, has two special teams TDs of their own this year (one each for D’Angelo Ponds – off a blocked punt – and a 91 yarder for Jonathan Brady). Their kicker, Nico Radicic, has yet to miss a kick (3/3 on FGs and 30/30 on XPs – that’s a lot of touchdowns), and their punter, Mitch McCarthy, is no slouch (though he’s only had to punt once this year, so the average isn’t exactly an average).
ADVANTAGE: Push – both teams have weapons on returns and while UI’s kicking game is statistically better, they haven’t seen the field much this year (which is it’s own kind of advantage).
Numbers to Watch
11 – Mark Gronowski is the winningest quarterback in college football history, but he’s still learning Tim Lester’s system. He threw for 186 yards against Rutgers and is, at present, Iowa’s leading – active – rusher. His legs have made the difference between a 3rd down conversion and a punt many a time so far and he may be called upon a lot to make those kinds of plays on Saturday.
16 – Fernando Mendoza has been surgical for Indiana. Against Illinois, he completed 21 of 23 passes – including his final 17 in a row – for 267 yards and five touchdowns, becoming the first IU quarterback to throw five or more touchdown passes in multiple games. If he continues at this clip, he’s going to be a serious Heisman candidate.
1 – Roman Hemby transferred from Maryland and has been a revelation in Indiana’s backfield. The Hoosiers rushed for 312 yards against Illinois, showing they can control games on the ground when needed. He will test Iowa’s LB corps if the DLine can’t win the battle up front.
25 – Nathan McNeill wasn’t on the depth chart this week, but with Jaz Patterson and Xavier Williams out, he’s sure to get more snaps than he did against Rutgers. I really hope he’ll be RB2 behind Kamari Moulton and they restrict TJ Washington to 3rd and long plays as an outlet pass option
46 – D’Angelo Ponds isn’t just a cornerback; he’s a game-changer. His blocked punt return for a touchdown is obviously a huge highlight, he was also the highest rated CB in the B18 last year and his pre-season composite rating of 91.8 was #1 among returning cornerbacks this year. He’s a bad, bad man.
Lines
Spread: Indiana -7.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Moneyline: Indiana -300, Iowa +240
I’m writing this on Wednesday evening, so I won’t be surprised if these shift a little by kickoff. The O/U at 48.5 gives us an implied score of Indiana 28 – Iowa 20.5, which I think is pretty generous to Iowa. I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I’d be hard pressed (even as a die-hard Hawkeye) to put any money on the Hawks here.
Right now Indiana looks like a legitimate Top 15 team, while Iowa has looked like a team that got 1 vote in last weeks AP poll.
That being said, this is exactly the type of game where Iowa has pulled off stunning upsets under Kirk Ferentz. There was a time not long ago where ranked opponents did not look forward to visiting Kinnick, though it’s been a while. For Iowa to have any chance at securing their first win against a ranked team in 4 years, they need to establish the run early and control the clock. Indiana’s offense is all about rhythm and explosive plays – forcing them into third-and-long situations (and getting off the field) will be crucial. If Gronowski can avoid turnovers and the defense generates a few stops, Iowa has a path to victory.
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
