The Los Angeles Rams will be going for the season sweep over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. Much like the matchup in Week 11, this one is important. Whoever wins will have the upper hand in the NFC for the No. 1 seed as well as in the NFC West. The Rams have gotten the best of Sam Darnold over the last two years, but Thursday’s game could determine whether or not a third matchup between these two is played at SoFi Stadium or Lumen Field. Let’s get to this week’s keys to victory.
1. Get interior pressure on Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold consistently struggles with pressure. However, it’s not just any pressure. Darnold struggles with interior pressure. The Rams will not win this game if they can’t take away the immediate throw, force Darnold to double clutch the ball, and then make him uncomfortable with pressure inside. A big difference in this game will be Jalen Sundell returning at center instead of Olu Oluwatimi for the Seahawks. They will be without their left tackle in Charles Cross, but this also isn’t last season when the Seahawks replaced him with Stone Forsythe.
Over the last two years, Chris Shula and the Rams have put out the blueprint for beating a Darnold offense. They do this with interior stunts and simulated pressures. It’s that type of pressure that Darnold has consistently struggled against. If the Rams are going to win this game, it starts with forcing Darnold into negative plays and mistakes. To do that, they need to make him uncomfortable.
Without pressure, Darnold ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per dropback. Under pressure, Darnold ranks 24th at -0.53 EPA per dropback. Under pressure, he has a 5.5 percent turnover-worthy play rate compared to 2.6 percent when kept clean. Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young need to have big games. To do this, the Rams need to set up obvious passing situations that the defense thrives on. On early downs, the Seahawks encounter a stuffed run 75 times which is the most in the league. The Rams have to stop the run early to earn the ability to rush the passer.
The Rams are catching Darnold at a fascinating time. Over the past two years, Darnold hasn’t shown that he can keep his level over the course of 17 games. Darnold’s EPA per dropback cuts in half from 0.21 in Weeks 1-9 to 0.11 in Weeks 10-18. His turnover-worthy throw percentage jumps from 3.6 percent to 5.1 percent. Since Week 11, Darnold is 2-for-20 on tight window throws. Darnold’s season shifted after the first loss to the Rams last year and it has shifted again after playing the same team this season.
2. Do better on third down
Over the past two games against the Seahawks, the Rams offense has struggled on third down. They were 2-for-11 on third down back in Week 11 and then 3-for-14 in the second game last year. The Rams won both games, but that simply isn’t going to cut it. The Rams lost the time of possession 37:49 to 22:11. Between the second and third quarters, the Rams ran 15 plays, were 0-for-3 on third down, and held the ball for 5:56. During that same span the Seahawks ran 45 plays and held the ball for 23:54. That type of ball control can’t happen if the Rams are going to win this game.
The Rams have to be able to set themselves up in third and manageable situations. Even if the Rams aren’t necessarily finishing drives in the end zone or even scoring, they can’t go three-and-out every time they have the ball. Offensively, the Rams need to find ways to not rely on explosives and be able to sustain drives.
3. Be aggressive with turnover opportunities
The Rams turned the ball over four times against the Seahawks and managed to win by just two points. It shows just how important creating turnovers is against this Seahawks team. While the Seahawks may be 11-3, they are the only team in the NFL with 20 or more turnovers to have a winning record. They are second in the NFL in turnovers behind the Minnesota Vikings. It’s also not just Darnold. The Seahawks lead the NFL in fumbles with 11.
Between Nate Landman forcing fumbles and the Rams defense having 13 interceptions, this has been an opportunistic defense this season. The Rams have one turnover over the past three weeks. It feels as if they are overdue for a multi-turnover game and this might just be the one. It’s also worth noting that wind is projected to be an issue and there is a chance of rain on Thursday Night. That could make both offenses more susceptible to turnovers. Winning that battle may end up being the difference in this game.
4. Find a way to run the ball
This goes back to the second point of doing better on third down. That starts with setting the offense up in good situations with favorable third down distances. Back in Week 11, the Rams had three 3rd-and-10+ situations in addition to three more 3rd-and-6 situations. Getting less than five yards in two plays isn’t ideal. This season, the Rams have averaged a 49.1 percent rushing success rate. Against the Seahawks, that was 31.8 percent. It’s true that Kyren Williams had 12 carries for 91 yards, but it doesn’t tell the full story. Take away the two 30-yard runs from Williams and he had 10 carries for 27 yards. If you remove his third run of 10 yards and he averaged 1.9 yards per carry which isn’t much different than Corum’s 1.3.
This Seahawks defense is one of the best in the NFL. They are first in EPA per rush. The explosive runs could create opportunities for the offense and are important. However, it’s also important for the Rams to stay ahead of the chains. Over the past three games, Corum is averaging over nine yards per carry. He’s essentially getting a first down per rushing attempt.
The Rams have found a good balance in the run game between Williams and Corum as they’ve become a two-headed monster at the position. This season, the Rams have been 50-50 when it comes to running man/duo or zone. The Seahawks are big inside and they have the speed to move laterally. They are uniquely fit to stop the Rams double teams inside and take away the cutback lanes in wide zone.
However, the Seahawks are allowing the sixth-most yards per carry on inside zone runs this season. The overall success rate is still just 44 percent, but it’s the one spot in the run game where they’ve shown to be vulnerable. It goes against what the Rams are doing as they are league average on inside zone runs. With that said, it may be worth a shot in this game.
5. Who is the second option in the offense?
It’s simple to say that the Rams can just run 13 personnel without Davante Adams. However, this Seahawks defense is uniquely built in a way that makes that difficult. The Rams do this to get teams into their base defense. With Nick Emmanwori, the Seahawks can just match it with nickel. Back in Week 11, the Rams lined up in 13 personnel 19 times and the Seahawks matched it with base three times. The offense had -0.55 EPA per play and a 21 percent success rate. Offensively, the Rams went from averaging 4.7 yards per play out of 13 personnel the three weeks prior to 2.7 yards per play.
That doesn’t mean that the Rams should abandon it. This is still a Seahawks defense that has struggled to defend tight ends at times. Gunnar Helm had six receptions for 51 yards against this Seahawks defense. TJ Hockenson had six receptions for 59 yards. Kyle Pitts had six receptions for 90 yards.
Without Davante Adams, the Rams are going to need to find a second option in the passing game outside of Puka Nacua. Given how Colby Parkinson has played over the past month, he makes sense. Parkinson had a career-high 75 yards last week. That doesn’t mention that he’s had six touchdowns in his last six games. Additionally, Terrance Ferguson has gotten more involved and this is a game in which it would be nice to see a breakout from him given his size. Ferguson can fill a similar role to Adams as far as moving across the field and winning vertically.
Still, a receiver is going to have to step up. The Rams aren’t going to be able to live in 13 personnel in this game. Back in Week 11, the Rams averaged 7.4 yards per carry out of 11 personnel. The Rams paid Tutu Atwell in the offseason and this would be a great game for him to earn that. Konata Mumpfield may see more opportunity as well. Someone else in the receiver room outside of Nacua is going to have to step up.
