There’s a whole other article here that’s tempting to write.
Several, even. How about “If the Rockets lose to the Lakers, Ime Udoka should be on the hot seat”? That is a position that could easily be justified. Luka Doncic is out for Game 1, and questionable for Game 2. Austin Reaves is questionable for the entire series. The Lakers are compromised.
The games still have to be played. Many NBA predictions have been wrong. What ought to happen on paper may not play out on the floor. The Rockets need
to identify advantages beyond sheer talent, barring early returns from Doncic and Reaves.
Luckily, one jumps off the page.
The Rockets are tougher than the Lakers
There are stats, and then there’s the immeasurable. Let’s knock out the stats first.
Rebounding is as good a measure of toughness as we have. The Rockets’ 54.5% Rebounding Percentage leads the NBA. The Lakers’ 49.9% mark lands 12th.
Defense is linked to toughness, too. The gap there is larger. Houston’s Defensive Rating ranks sixth (112.1). The Lakers’ 115.5 ranked 20th. Granted, that mark came with All-No-Defense first-teamers Doncic and Reaves in the fold. That’s a fair point, but the counterpoint is that replacing them with Marcus “Toughness Personified” Smart and Jake “Don’t Call Me Doncic” LaRavia (a solid player to be fair) is not a net positive.
Almost any measure of toughness favors the Rockets. Loose balls recovered? Houston’s 5.0 per game ranked third, where the Lakers’ 4.2 ranked 15th (which reflects the small margins in this stat above all else). About the only argument for Los Angeles’ toughness is their league-leading 0.74 charges drawn per game. If you think the Lakers can win this one by drawing a charge every other night, I would recommend avoiding sports betting.
Those are the numbers. Now, let’s talk about what we intuitively know:
The Rockets are a lot tougher than the Lakers.
Smart is the exception. Unfortunately for him, he’s 6’3″. The simple solution here is to have Amen Thompson hunt him on offense. Thompson has a similar mentality in a much larger frame: He will win this wrestling match.
Deandre Ayton is an interesting case. He’s a human block of granite, but toughness has not been his forte. He is notably stronger than Alperen Sengun, and moving stronger players has, at times, proven difficult for him. I’d like to say Sengun is tougher (I think he is), but it’s not quantifiable. What can be comfortably said is that he’s more agile, so Sengun should lean into his face-up game and take Ayton off the dribble as often as possible.
Let’s move away from individual matchups. The broader idea is this: Thompson, Tari Eason, and Jabari Smith Jr. need to be bullying LaRavia, Luke Kennard, and Rui Hachimura off the floor. They need to leave a 41-year-old LeBron James physically exhausted. Physicality is the key to this series for the Rockets:
Luckily, that’s Ime Udoka’s speciality.
