With the Madness tipping off tonight — yes, the First Four counts, regardless of what the guy running your office pool says when he tells you that the deadline to submit your bracket is Thursday morning — we’re looking at FanDuel odds for the tournament and having a few thoughts.
Remember: if you bet actual money based on anything in this article, that’s on you.
Will there be any first-round upsets?
Last year didn’t have a single upset by any team seeded 13th or worse, and only one double-digit seed made it to the Sweet 16 — and that was
a team coached by John Calipari, hardly an underdog. Will that hold this season?
(Ed. note: If you’re expecting me to pick McNeese over Vanderbilt, here’s a blog that might be more to your tastes.)
High Point (+390 moneyline vs. Wisconsin) is, I’m guessing, going to be a very popular pick as the 30-4 Big South champion takes on fifth-seeded Wisconsin, which has claimed the mantle of this year’s Chaos Team (beat Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue on the road, lose to USC at home.) Flying under the radar, though, is a 29-5 Akron team that’s running into Texas Tech, who will be without star player JT Toppin (and has gone 3-4 since he tore his ACL to end his season.) Akron is +260 on the moneyline to beat the Red Raiders and that’s where I would go if I had to pick one 12-over-5 upset. Even Northern Iowa (+470 moneyline) is worth a flyer to beat St. John’s, which has won 19 of its last 20 but against a bad Big East.
What about the 13-seeds and lower? Well, Hofstra (+580 moneyline vs. Alabama) might have just got a break with Aden Holloway, Alabama’s second-leading scorer, getting arrested on felony possession charges on the eve of the tournament, and Hofstra managed to beat a couple of ACC teams (Pitt and Syracuse) in December. That might be worth a look. Troy (+760 moneyline) is worth a flyer just because Nebraska has never won a NCAA Tournament game and that’s generally not the kind of history I hand-wave away.
Who’s going deep?
For odds to reach the Sweet 16, I think UConn is a bit overrated and could lose early. That would probably be to the benefit of UCLA (+270 odds to reach Sweet 16), though it could also benefit UCF (+1200.)
And back to the first-round upsets portion: Akron and Hofstra are in the same pod. If you think both of them could pull an upset in the first round, suddenly Akron’s +1000 odds to make the Sweet 16 is an incredible value pick. For the Elite Eight, giving a Tom Izzo team +200 odds to reach the Elite Eight when they’re paired in a bracket with UConn, who I just identified as a team that’s a bit overrated, feels disrespectful.
As for the Final Four: if you think Duke, Arizona, and Michigan are kind of head and shoulders above everybody else, a parlay on all three to make the Final Four pays out at +383. Vanderbilt is +1100 and doesn’t share a region with any of those three and you’re nuts if you think I’m not picking us to make the Final Four.
And the national champion is…
Sadly, I am not crazy enough to pick Vanderbilt to do that. Of the top three teams, Michigan (+360 to win it all) has fewer flaws than Arizona and isn’t missing its point guard, unlike Duke.
