Since the basketball team is off for the week and the football team doesn’t play until 2026, I figured we could fill the time by looking at the ACC bowl slate and just make a quick prediction on the outcome of each game. The conference bowl record has never really mattered to me that much in the past, but with all the ACC slander out there recently, I find myself hoping the ACC wins every bowl in convincing fashion. Let’s take a look at the matchups.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Matchup: NC State (7-5, 4-4) vs Memphis (8-4, 4-4)
Location: Tampa, Florida (Raymond James Stadium)
Date: December 19th at 2:30
Spread: NC State -5.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/Under: 59.5
This one is sort of tough for me. On the one hand, NC State fans have assured me that the “Dave Doeren cycle” requires throttling UNC at the end of the season to save his job and then losing a mid-tier bowl to make everyone remember why they wanted to move on to start with. On the other hand, Memphis really wasn’t that good for a G5 team this season, and their coach just left for Arkansas. If CJ Bailey doesn’t enter the portal and actually plays in this game, I think the Wolfpack will probably pull this one out.
College Football Playoff First Round
Matchup: #10 Miami (10-2, 6-2) vs #7 Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1)
Location: College Station, Texas (Kyle Field)
Date: December 20th at Noon
Spread: Miami +3.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/Under: 51.5
Miami making the playoffs may have saved the ACC, because a world where the ACC gets 0 teams in the CFP is a world where Miami, Clemson, and Florida State are probably finding the money to leave within days. This one could come down to which version of Carson Beck shows up for the game–in wins, Beck has looked like one of the best QB’s in the nation, throwing for 2,500 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions. In losses, he has looked like the exact opposite, throwing for just 2 touchdowns with 6 interceptions. With this being a home game for the Aggies, I will give former Wake Forest DC Mike Elko the nod to win this one.
Bush’s Best Boca Raton Bowl of Beans
Matchup: Louisville (8-4, 4-4) vs Toledo (8-4, 6-2)
Location: Boca Raton, Florida (FAU Stadium)
Date: December 22nd at 2PM
Spread: Louisville -8.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/under: 45.5
Louisville lost 3 of their final 4 games, but they are still the team that beat a top 10 Miami team on the road. Opt-outs obviously affect these games, but a middle of the pack ACC team should not lose to a MAC team. Give me Louisville in a blowout.
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Matchup: Cal (7-5, 4-4) vs Hawaii (8-4, 5-3)
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii (Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex)
Date: December 24th at 8PM
Spread: Cal -2.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/under: 55.5
Freshman phenom Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has already announced his decision to remain at Cal for next season, so I have to assume he is going to play in the bowl game–especially since it is in his home city of Honolulu. With him under center, Cal should absolutely beat a 5-3 Mountain West team, even if the Rainbow Warriors did beat Stanford to start the season. I like Cal by double digits.
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Matchup: Pitt (8-4, 6-2) vs. East Carolina (8-4, 6-2)
Location: Annapolis, Maryland (Navy–Marine Corps Memorial Stadium)
Date: December 27th at 11 AM
Spread: Pitt -5.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/under: 61.5
The Pirates typically play pretty well against ACC teams in bowls, but I think Pitt is just the better team. The Panthers demolished a ranked GT team that was playing for an ACC Championship game berth in Atlanta, and half of their losses are against teams that were vying for the playoffs. ECU QB Katin Houser, who threw for 3,300 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, still has a year of eligibility remaining. That could make him a potential transfer target for some bigger programs, and he may not want to wait until the bowl game to find out. I think Pitt probably wins either way, but if Houser plays, I expect this one to be close–if he opts for the portal, Pitt should win in a blowout.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Matchup: Clemson (7-5, 4-4) vs. Penn State (6-6, 3-6)
Location: Bronx, New York
Date: December 27th at Noon
Spread: Clemson -2.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/under: 48.5
Clemson and Penn State are squaring off in the postseason, just like everyone predicted. Well, most people had them playing for the national championship, but the Pinstripe Bowl will have to suffice. Both these teams had massively disappointing seasons by their standards, but both finished the season strong–Penn State won their final 3 games of the season, while the Tigers finished with a 4-game winning streak. Penn State is missing a coach and a starting QB, while Clemson still has Klubnik and Dabo. That should push the game in favor of the Tigers.
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Matchup: #22 Georgia Tech (9-3, 6-2) vs. #12 BYU (11-2, 8-1)
Location: Orlando, Florida (Camping World Stadium)
Date: December 27th at 3:30
Spread: GT +2.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/under: 55.5
After starting the season 8-0 (should have been 7-1 if the line judge had eyes), the Yellow Jackets closed the season out going 1-3 in their final 4 games, with a couple of pretty bad losses to NC State and Pitt at home. BYU, on the other hand, only lost to 1 team this season, #4 Texas Tech—the Red Raiders look like a championship contender, so it’s hard to really fault the Cougars for those two losses. Notre Dame probably would have made this a better game, but since the Irish decided to throw a tantrum and boycott the bowl, I think BYU will probably win this one.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Matchup: #19 Virginia (10-3, 7-1) vs. Missouri (8-4, 4-4)
Location: Jacksonville, Florida (EverBank Stadium)
Date: December 27th at 7:30
Spread: Missouri -7.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/under: 49.5
I just can’t get over Virginia only scoring 20 points on that Duke defense in the ACC Championship Game. There might be some recency bias here, but that trick play the Hoos ran in overtime with Chandler Morris throwing the ball right into double coverage for the game-ending interception is seared into my memory, and I just cannot pick them to win this game. Missouri has the SEC’s leading rusher Ahmad Hardy (1,650 yards, 16 touchdowns, 6.5 ypc), so if he plays in this game the Tigers will probably win big.
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Matchup: Duke (8-5, 6-2) vs. Arizona State (8-4, 6-3)
Location: El Paso, Texas (Sun Bowl Stadium)
Date: December 31st at 2 PM
Spread: Duke -1.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/under: 49.5
It was reported in early November that Arizona State starting QB Sam Leavitt’s camp was already shopping him in the transfer portal, and he just no showed the team’s year end banquet—I think it’s safe to assume that he will not be suiting up for the Sun Devils in this game. That puts former GT QB Jeff Sims under center for ASU–Sims has thrown 38 touchdowns to 34 interceptions in his 6-year career, so that is a pretty significant downgrade for the Sun Devils. If Darian Mensah plays, I think Duke probably wins this one by double digits.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Matchup: Wake Forest (8-4, 4-4) vs. Mississippi State (5-7, 1-7)
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina (Bank of America Stadium)
Date: January 2nd at 8 PM
Spread: Wake +3.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/under: 56.5
After starting 4-0, the Bulldogs finished the season 1-7 with the lone win being a 3-point victory over 2-10 Arkansas–based on that, it’s hard to see why Wake would be underdogs in this game for any reason other than conference bias and name recognition. Wake typically does well in bowl games, so I am taking the Deacs to win outright in this one.
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Matchup: SMU (8-4, 6-2) vs. #17 Arizona (9-3, 6-3)
Location: San Diego, California
Date: January 2nd at 8 PM
Spread: SMU +2.5 (via FanDuel)
Over/under: 51.5
I have to imagine SMU will want to redeem themselves after blowing a shot at the ACC title and a potential playoff spot when they lost to 6-5 Cal as 13.5-point favorites in the last week of the season. I don’t know a whole lot about Arizona, but they finished the season on a 5-game winning streak and starting QB Noah Fifita threw 26 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions on the season. This one will probably be close, but I’m leaning towards Arizona right now.
Based on that, I think the ACC finishes 7-4 in their 11 bowl games. There is something to be said for conference pride when it seems like the big TV corporations and the media are actively trying to kill conferences so they can make 2 mega-conferences, but there are still probably some ACC teams on this list that I just can’t bring myself to root for. Hopefully the Deacs are able to do their and bring home a W in their first bowl game since 2023.
Go Deacs!
